CHINESE VOTERS DISSATISFIED WITH RULING COALITION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 001257 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MY SUBJECT: CHINESE VOTERS DISSATISFIED WITH RULING COALITION, BUT OPPOSITION GAINS MAY BE LIMITED REF: 06 KUALA LUMPUR 1975 - MALAYSIA'S CHINESE MINORITY Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b and d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Corruption, crime and vernacular education remain among the top electoral priorities for Malaysia's ethnic Chinese community, and in the run-up to the next national election Chinese dissatisfaction with the ruling Coalition's handling of such issues appears on the rise. To explore ethnic Chinese voter perspectives, during July we spoke with various Chinese civil society groups, including important clan associations, Chinese assembly halls, the Chinese language press, and think-tanks associated with the various political parties representing the Chinese community, namely the ruling National Front (BN)'s Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and People's Movement Party (Gerakan), along with the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP). This report conveys the sentiments and views we encountered, which are notably consistent with the findings of a recent survey conducted by the Merdeka Center and indicate growing voter dissatisfaction in Malaysia's Chinese community. Despite the expressed Chinese disaffection, however, neither opposition parties nor BN foresee major shifts at the polls. End Summary. Key issues and concerns for the Chinese community -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The upcoming national election in Malaysia will feature important issues for the Chinese community and the parties that represent them. The major Chinese and Chinese-dominated parties all have centered their campaigns around a few common themes: to reduce the crime rate and government corruption, end the New Economic Policy (NEP),and improve support for Chinese "vernacular" education. (Note: Gerakan and DAP are non-ethnic parties, but closely associated with the Chinese community. End Note.) In the 2004 election, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi and the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) - the largest component of National Front (Barisan National or BN)- focused their campaign platforms on combating corruption, promoting religious moderation, and advancing police and administration reform. Our interviews reveal that, at present, Chinese Malaysians generally believe that PM Abdullah has failed to achieve any of these campaign promises. In addition to this failure, the increase of the crime rate has become a particularly important issue to the Chinese community because the Chinese perceive themselves as disproportionately affected by rising criminal activity. In addition, the New Economic Policy (NEP),remains a longstanding sore point for Chinese Malaysians as the policy is now seen more and more as directed against Chinese wealth rather than against foreign ownership, as it was originally designed. Finally, the lack of support for Chinese vernacular schools is a recurrent issue that resonates within the Chinese community. Some Chinese complain that now even Malays, recognizing the better educational opportunities, are sending their children to Chinese vernacular schools. This influx of non-Chinese students results in insufficient facilities and a lack of teachers in the relatively few publicly supported Chinese schools that exist. These concerns -- corruption, crime, NEP and education -- span the political spectrum in Malaysia's Chinese community and remain key issues that all Chinese parties, regardless of affiliation, find themselves addressing before their constituents. Will dissatisfaction harm BN? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Tay Tien Yan, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of a leading Chinese language newspaper, Sin Chew Daily (a privately owned but government influenced newspaper),agreed that corruption, crime and education remain the largest motivating factors in the Chinese community. He pointed out that readers most often wrote to the newspaper expressing concern over these issues. All the Chinese political parties, said Tan, have responded to the Chinese community's concerns and have issued statements to the newspapers that their parties would look into the issues and voice the community's concerns. Some readers stated that they would vote for the opposition DAP. Not surprisingly, however, many said they would continue to vote for BN even though they do not like the government and are dissatisfied with its performance, particularly in tackling crime. Those who claim to support BN cite stability and continuity as their main reasons to maintain their KUALA LUMP 00001257 002 OF 003 backing of the government. Voting for the opposition party has too many unknowns for this constituency, said Tay. Parties comment on prospects -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Like all parties in Malaysia, the Chinese parties are keenly interested in the date of the anticipated general elections. Several prominent people from the community and political parties opined that the election will be held early next year, March or April, ideally after Chinese New Year in February. According to the Vice-chair of the Kuala Lumpur and Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall's Civil Rights Committee, Wong Chin Huat, BN is prepared for the upcoming election and it is ready to call for election. Local newspapers, Nanyang Sang Pau and Oriental Daily News reported that MCA and Gerakan are well-prepared for the election as well. ¶5. (C) With all the talk of upcoming elections, some Chinese question why the government wants to call for early polls even though BN must know that they will lose a few seats in Parliament by doing this. Fui K. Soong, director of Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP),a MCA sponsored think-tank, believes that BN wants to see MCA and Gerakan fail. According to Soong, voter dissatisfaction runs high in the Chinese community, but Malays remain loyal to UMNO. If BN component parties MCA and Gerakan fare poorly in the next election, UNMO will have a stronger reason to take the seats back (reallocate seats within BN) from MCA and Gerakan over the long run. Soong believes UMNO's tactic is to diminish the overall influence of MCA and Gerakan within the BN framework, thereby strengthening UMNO's dominion over politics in the country. ¶6. (SBU) Chinese political pundits inside and outside the ruling coalition concur that BN might lose a few parliamentary seats to the opposition party DAP in the coming election. Khoo Kay Peng, executive director of the Sedar Institute, a Gerakan-based think tank, concluded that BN will certainly dominate the upcoming election but may not win 90 percent of the seats in the national Parliament as they did in 2004. According to Khoo, MCA and Gerakan will likely lose a few seats due to Chinese voter dissatisfaction. Executive Director of Research for Social Advancement from the opposition party DAP, Liew Chin Tong, is optimistic about the upcoming election but does not anticipate unrealistic gains. He believes that the coming polls will resemble the 1986 election, when DAP won 24 seats (currently DAP holds 12). ¶7. (SBU) Recognizing the community's call for change, MCA President and Minister of Housing Ong Ka Ting announced earlier this year that MCA would seek to replace up to 30 percent of its incumbents with new, younger faces. Ong has already begun replacing party leaders in various states and several aging Chinese politicians have announced their intent not to seek reelection. Although internal and fundamental change is difficult in any party, Fui K. Soong, director of MCA's INSAP, agreed that MCA needs to have new faces if it is to compete with DAP for appeasing Malaysia's dissatisfied voters. She opined that many of MCA's incumbents are old and have been in the party for many years and the party needs to have younger leaders to contribute their creative ideas. According to Soong, having 30% new faces will help convince constituents that MCA is committed to change and the long-term future of the Chinese community. Soong noted that from INSAP's perspective reducing corruption represented the critical issue, although the government appears incapable of accomplishing this difficult task. She concedes that DAP will likely capture a few MCA seats in the coming election but politics will remain fundamentally unchanged as UMNO will always emerge the majority winner in any election. Merdeka Center Survey -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Consistent with our own interviews showing Chinese discontent, Malaysia's independent polling organization, the Merdeka Center for Opinion Research, recently released results of their June survey of 1,022 Malaysian citizens in. The random survey of adults over age 21 in peninsular Malaysia revealed that Chinese Malaysians give PM Abdullah Badawi the lowest approval rating of all major ethnic groups at only 54 percent (compared to 88 percent of Malays and 71 percent of Indians). Moreover, the Merdeka Center survey showed that only 8 percent of Chinese Malaysians felt Abdullah kept his 2004 election pledges to fight corruption. Ibrahim Suffian, director of the Merdeka Center, commented to the press that "the majority of Chinese think Abdullah did not keep most of his election promises....More Chinese also think that the problem of the sluggish Malaysian economy can KUALA LUMP 00001257 003 OF 003 be addressed by having more opposition leaders in Parliament." When the survey asked if the country needs a stronger opposition, 82 percent of the Chinese agreed. When questioned more specifically, 62 percent of the Chinese surveyed responded they were "willing" to vote for DAP and 42 percent were "willing" to vote for Anwar Ibrahim's People's Justice Party (Keadilan - PKR). Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The dissatisfaction with the BN and expressed willingness in the Chinese community to support DAP does not necessarily translate into opposition votes at the polling booth. Voter apathy and poor candidate choice have long been obstacles that the Chinese opposition has been unable to sufficiently overcome. Nevertheless, Chinese voters are apparently feeling more and more dissatisfied with the current state of political affairs in Malaysia. While very few Chinese Malaysians mentioned to us the issues of religious freedom, such as the Lina Joy apostasy case or the "Islamic state" controversy, crime and corruption remain foremost on the minds of the voters. Traditional bread and butter issues of vernacular education and the economy also remain mainstays of the local Chinese political debate, and it is quite possible that the Barisan Nasional government will reach out to the Chinese community through the next budget cycle in an attempt to appease the Chinese voting block. Recent announcements concerning the Northern Economic Corridor also provide demonstrable examples of the GOM's economic/development outreach to the Chinese communities of Penang and Perak and will undoubtedly be touted by BN coalition partners in the next campaign cycle. Even considering Chinese dissatisfaction with the status quo, in a head to head race between BN and DAP, Chinese voter apathy just might win out. LAFLEUR