CONGRESS RETAINS CONTROL IN MANIPUR AS LOCAL PARTIES FALTER

UNCLAS KOLKATA 000072 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL IN SUBJECT: CONGRESS RETAINS CONTROL IN MANIPUR AS LOCAL PARTIES FALTER REF: KOLKATA 00028, KOLKATA 00059, KOLKATA 00071 ¶1. (U) Summary: The Congress Party gained control of the Manipur Assembly, winning 30 out 60 seats, and partnering with the Communist Party of India (CPI) to form an absolute majority. Local parties, including the Manipur People's Party, lost due to their extreme political stances that did not resonate with voters. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD),a party that previously didn't have a foothold in Manipur, won enough seats for national recognition under the leadership of former Chief Minister W. Nipamacha Singh. While the result was a victory for Congress, it is unlikely to resolve the pressing social and economic issues that make Manipur one of India's most backward states. End Summary. ¶2. (U). Manipur Legislative Assembly election results indicate that the incumbent Congress is one seat short of majority, but remains the single largest party in the Manipur Assembly, winning 30 of the 60 seats. Congress ally Communist Party of India (CPI) won 4 seats, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 5, Manipur People's Party (MPP) 5, Nationalist People's Party (NPP) 3, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 3 and Independents 10. The Independents included six candidates backed by the United Naga Council (UNC),the apex body of Nagas which had made the issue of integration of Naga-inhabited areas of Manipur with Nagaland its primary political platform. The BJP, which had won three seats in 2002, did not win any seats. The RJD for the first time gained a foothold in the state, led by W. Nipamacha Singh, a former Chief Minister and prominent political heavyweight. His campaign consisted primarily of tirades against the corruption of the Congress government and its inability to declare a clear stand on the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). ¶3. (U) The steering committee of the incumbent Secular Progressive Front (SPF) met the same day and the CPI reportedly offered to join the new government with the Congress to give it an absolute majority. No decision has yet been made by other parties like the NCP and RJD (which are partners of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in Delhi) about joining the new government. ¶3. (U). Comment: The election results indicate that most voters prefer a ruling government with a relatively moderate approach on key issues such as Naga integration and the AFSPA. The Congress position that fragmentation of Manipur was not possible and UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi's emphasizing that the Center was seriously looking into the recommendations of the Jeevan Reddy Committee on AFSPA -- struck a chord with voters. The regional MPP campaigned with a rabid anti-national and anti-Naga tone and ended up adding only 3 to its previous tally of 2 seats. In addition, the anti-Manipuri and pro-Naga integration stance of the UNC only resonated in districts dominated by ethnic Nagas. Congress's superior statewide organizational network and resources as compared to other smaller parties was also significant factor in its victory. The reality for most of Manipur's citizens, who live in a one of India's most economically backward states, is that the Congress is the only party with real access to the Central government, which provides the funds to keep the state running. However, it is unlikely that the new government will address the problems of violence and corruption that plague the state. JARDINE