MANIPUR STATE ELECTIONS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WEAKER CONGRESS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000028 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS PACOM FOR POL/AD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI IN BM SUBJECT: MANIPUR STATE ELECTIONS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WEAKER CONGRESS PARTY COALITION ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The National Election Commission has announced three voting phases for the Manipur state assembly elections to be held on February 8, 15, and 23. The phased voting will help in managing the extensive security required, given the persistent violence from ethnic insurgencies in the state. The ruling Congress Party coalition will likely return to power but weakened. The current Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh's decision to run in two different assembly constituencies has sparked a small exodus of Congress Party workers in his current constituency. An added complication for the Manipur state elections is the demand by ethnic Nagas for Naga-dominated areas of Manipur to become part of an autonomous "Greater Nagland." The weakening of Congress's position in Manipur reflects of the general erosion of Congress's influence in India's Northeast, as social unrest continues to plague the area and regional parties become more dominant. End Summary. -------------- Phased Voting and the Coalitions -------------- ¶2. (U) The northeastern state of Manipur will hold its ninth State Assembly elections next month in three phases -- February 8, 15 and 23. Currently, the 60-member Assembly in made up of the following coalitions: -- The ruling coalition includes the All India Congress Party (Congress) (26 legislators),the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP) (2 legislators) and the Communist Party of India (5 legislators). (Note: The Manipur State Congress Party had won 7 seats in the 2002 elections but five of them have already merged with Congress. "The remaining two MSCP members will join the Congress before the February elections," according to a Congress legislator. End Note.) -- The opposing bloc includes the Federal Party of Manipur (FPM) (13 legislators),a small Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) presence (4 legislators),the Samta Party (3 legislators) and the Nationalist Congress Party (3 legislators). The remaining four other members in the Assembly are from small, regional parties. -------------- Security Measures -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Manipur suffers from continuous low- to mid-level insurgencies, some of them particularly violent, and state 
authorities plan for overwhelming security during the three-phased elections. Chief Election Commissioner of India N. Gopalaswamy is confident that the process will proceed smoothly at the more than 2,000 polling stations. He claimed, "There are no reasons to fear rigging and booth capturing as we would be having maximum security with the strength of at least two-and-half times more than what was there during the last elections in 2002." However, the state government has requested the GOI to send 200 companies of central forces as additional security for the elections. ¶4. (SBU) The first phase of the elections will be held on February 8, spread over 19 assembly constituencies in the insurgency-prone districts of Thoubal, Ukhrul and Senapati. In the second phase on February 14, polling will take place in 29 assembly constituencies and the remaining 12 seats will be contested on February 23. Election Commission data puts the number of voters at slightly over 1.68 million. Electronic voting machines will be used at all polling stations. The Commission will appoint and deploy 30 observers in the state during the election to monitor the polling, and particularly "sensitive" polling stations will have digital cameras installed as well. -------------- KOLKATA 00000028 002 OF 002 Congress CM Looking Out For Number One -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Congress Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh's decision to contest in two assembly constituencies (Khangabok and Thoubal) may damage the governing alliance. Singh's tactic, which some political observers believe is a sign that he is unsure of his re-election chances, has triggered an exodus of Congress workers who feel that Singh is putting his own aspirations above the party. Likmabam Bachu, the president of the block Congress Committee is now leading these Congress defectors in a bid to join the Manipur Peoples' Party (MPP). The MPP is open to all such defectors and has made Bachu the new MPP General Secretary. However, Congress legislator Hemochandra Singh told Post that the media has over-hyped the defections. "This has only happened in Khangabok and nowhere else. I am sure the Congress-led government will come back to power again," said Singh. -------------- The Naga Factor -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Naga groups in Manipur will also be a factor. Ethnic Nagas have a large presence in the five hill districts in Manipur closest to the state of Nagaland. These five hill districts constitute one of Manipur's two Parliamentary seats, and 20 of the state's 60 assembly seats. Out of these 20 seats, 11 are ethnic Naga. The United Naga Council (UNC) has issued a leaflet to Naga voters in Manipur asking them not to vote for the incumbent legislators but to instead support those Naga candidates who will push for integration of parts of Manipur into a Greater Nagaland. The Manipur government has opposed any move towards Naga integration of Manipur territory. In December 2006 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh assured the Manipuris that the GOI would retain Manipur's existing borders. -------------- Social Ills Remain -------------- ¶7. (U) Manipur is a small state of some 2.2 million people. It shares an international border with Burma and its proximity to the "Golden Triangle" has made it a transit route for drug smuggling. The rate of HIV among injecting drug users is above 20 per cent, and the virus has spread further to the sexual partners of drug users and their children. HIV prevalence at prenatal clinics in Manipur has reached epidemic levels of over 1 per cent in recent years. A high rate of unemployment exists in Manipur, particularly among the educated youth. According to the state figures, more than 400,000 Manipuris are unemployed. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Congress will likely return to govern Manipur in a weakened coalition. Singh's self-serving decision to contest from two constituencies, prompting defections from his party, and the growing influence of Naga groups are contributing factors to Congress's diminished position in the state. In addition, regional Manipuri parties are also on the rise. Congress's situation in Manipur is reflective of a general trend in India's Northeast, where strengthening ethnic tribal identity is fostering more regional parties and undermining the position of national parties like Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). JARDINE