DRC: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL FEINGOLD (AUGUST 24-26,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KINSHASA 000983 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV EAID ECON PREF PHUM MARR ASEC CG SUBJECT: DRC: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL FEINGOLD (AUGUST 24-26, 2007) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Democratic Republic of the Congo is slowly feeling its way in the search for solutions to fundamental governance, security and development challenges following historic 2006 national elections. Achievements to date, the promise of peace and democratization, and the importance of the DRC as the linchpin of central Africa and beyond have made it one of the Department's seven priority assistance countries in Africa. Your visit will reinforce U.S. commitment to a long partnership with the Congolese people to develop democratic institutions and reinforce our shared objective of a peaceful and prosperous DRC. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Your August 24-26 visit to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, on the heels of recent visits by the Ugandan Foreign Minister and by South African President Thabo Mbeki, will be the first visit by a senior U.S. official since the installation of the DRC's first freely and democratically elected government in over 40 years. It comes at a critical time following a difficult transition from dictatorship, mismanagement and devastating wars and provides a timely opportunity to build on the successful presidential and parliamentary elections in 2006. The electoral process produced a government which is now confronting the challenges of developing democratic institutions amid popular expectations of change. This situation calls for continued and sustained U.S. engagement in a country the size of western Europe that could be the linchpin for the development of all of central Africa. ¶3. (SBU) The Department's 2006 decision to identify the DRC as one of seven priority assistance countries in Africa reflected achievements to date, the promise of the peace and democratization processes, and the country's importance to regional stability and development. Our assistance program fully supports and reflects the transformational diplomacy goals laid out by the Secretary. The Mission's overriding policy goals focus on implanting a culture of democracy and accountable governance, while promoting broad economic development in a stable Congo at peace with its neighbors and itself. USAID's 2006 budget for DRC programs totaled USD 68 million, including funds received from central accounts but excluding IFDA (disaster assistance). Comparable figures for 2007 have risen to USD 71 million (with supplemental funding),and are projected to rise in 2008 to USD 80.2 million, including increases in the areas of peace and security, governing justly and democratically, and economic growth. -------------- PEACE AND SECURITY -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The security situation remains precarious in many areas, particularly in the eastern provinces. The Congolese military (FARDC) suffers from weak command and control, corruption, poor operational planning, limited training, and questionable loyalty on the part of some troops. Military forces are also responsible for some of the worst human rights abuses in the country. The Kivu provinces merit particular attention. Tensions in North and South Kivu are on the rise. The challenges posed by dissident General Laurent Nkunda and the Rwandan Hutu fighters of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) are testimony to long-standing and unresolved differences among local communities. In South Kivu, the Congolese military launched operations in July 2007 against a small group of armed insurgents, most of whom belong to a specific Congolese Tutsi ethnic sub-group called Banyamulenge. Government officials are currently planning for an inter-ethnic conference to be held at the end of September to address specific issues and grievances. ¶5. (SBU) The government's approach to military integration in the Kivus has added to security concerns. In January 2007 the government abandoned its traditional integration program -- known as "brassage" -- in favor of a new arrangement that "mixed" soldiers loyal to Nkunda and pro-government forces into new units. The "brassage" process attempted to break up former chains of command and regional ties by combining troops from different armed groups, providing them with a common training plan, and dispatching them away from their past area of operations. By contrast, "mixage" kept these new units in North Kivu, allowing pro-Nkunda elements to KINSHASA 00000983 002 OF 005 spread their influence and control throughout the province. The deployment of these forces -- particularly of the Nkunda loyalists who had recently fought against some of the local population where they were now stationed -- exacerbated ethnic tensions, increased security fears, and contributed to a deterioration in the province's humanitarian situation. ¶6. (SBU) Foreign armed groups operating in the DRC are a source of friction between the Congo and its neighbors. While the number of foreign fighters has diminished in recent years, they still pose a threat to a country's overall security and stability, and the FARDC has been largely unable to eliminate them. The FDLR, formed from the remnants of the Army for the Liberation of Rwanda and former Interahamwe fighters, remains the largest of these groups, with approximately 6,000-8,000 combatants in the Kivus. An estimated 500 members of the Allied Democratic Forces-National Army for the Liberation of Uganda (ADF-NALU) operate in northeastern North Kivu along the Ugandan border. In addition, a small number of fighters with the Lord's Resistance Army operate in a remote northern section of Garamba National Park on the Sudanese border. ¶7. (SBU) The Congo's relations with its nine neighbors are relatively peaceful, though there are some underlying problems. The USG-facilitated Tripartite Plus Commission -- composed of the DRC, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi -- has made progress in reducing general cross-border tensions in the Great Lakes region, but greater political will is needed to normalize relations. The last meeting of the Commission in June 2007 produced wide agreement to work cooperatively to negate the influence of the region's armed groups, and foreign ministers plan to meet again in Kampala in September. Poorly-defined borders have become a recent cause for concern. The Congolese government (GDRC) and Angola remain at odds over control of a strip of land in a diamond-rich frontier area, resulting in a outcries of protest in the Kinshasa press. Both have agreed to resolve the disagreement via a technical boundary demarcation with assistance from former colonial powers Belgium and Portugal. In early August, Ugandan and Congolese military forces exchanged fire in Lake Albert, bordering Uganda and the DRC's northeastern Ituri District, after an oil exploration team reportedly crossed into DRC territory. The dispute centers on a small piece of land occupied by Congolese but claimed by Uganda; both sides have agreed to establish a joint commission to resolve the issue. ¶8. (SBU) Donor-funded security sector reform (SSR) and disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) programs have achieved mixed success at best, and low-level conflict remains in many eastern areas. More than 70,000 combatants remain to be disarmed and demobilized nationwide. A new phase of DDR in Ituri, with USD 500,000 from USAID, was launched in early August 2007 with the aim of demobilizing an estimated 4,500 militia members. The European Union has long had a major involvement in the security sector, including established European Security (EUSEC) and European Police (EUPOL) missions directing programs in the Congo. Other EU countries, notably France and Belgium, have provided substantial funding support. South Africa and Angola have also played major roles, including the training and equipping of integrated military brigades. ¶9. (SBU) USG involvement in security sector reform has received relatively little funding, but we anticipate additional activities in the near future. A training program for brigade-level officers is ongoing in Kinshasa. Thanks to USD 5 million in funding from FY2006 PKO funds, we plan to rehabilitate the officer training academy, provide officer training, and make significant investment in the military justice system. IMET funds U.S.-based courses that include English-language training. NADR currently funds destruction of obsolete ordnance. For FY2008, USD 8.4 million already allocated from FMF, INCLE, NADR and PKO funds will enable greater involvement in SSR activities including, for the first time, police training. -------------- GOVERNING JUSTLY AND DEMOCRATICALLY -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The Congolese people continue to hold high expectations that the democratic process will improve their KINSHASA 00000983 003 OF 005 lives. The relatively high voter turnout in the July and October 2006 presidential and legislative elections demonstrated citizens' engagement. The new institutions have been slow to generate momentum. The National Assembly and Senate have only a small number of members with legislative or government experience and are just beginning to consider a backlog of important legislation. Provincial officials, lacking resources, money and experience, are unfamiliar with exercising newly-decentralized authority. Elections for local and municipal officials are tentatively scheduled for mid-2008. ¶11. (SBU) The role of the political opposition, as well as its rights and responsibilities, remain to be defined. Parties and candidates aligned with the Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP),Kabila's electoral coalition, won majorities in the National Assembly and Senate, as well as eight of eleven provincial assemblies and ten of eleven gubernatorial contests -- leaving the opposition with little apparent political clout. The National Assembly and Senate passed legislation giving the Opposition certain protections and rights, and a conference bill is scheduled for debate in September. Prominent opposition figure Jean-Pierre Bemba departed for Portugal in April 2007, following fighting in Kinshasa between government troops and his forces. He remains there in de facto political exile. Members of his party claim security forces harass their members and have attempted to muzzle their media outlets. Bemba has conditioned his return on concessions concerning his personal protection. ¶12. (SBU) USG governance and institutional reform programs, budgeted at USD 10.2 million for FY2007 and a proposed USD 20 million for FY 2008, focus on combating corruption and human rights abuses, developing independent judicial and legislative institutions, and facilitating decentralized state authority. Their objectives incorporate long-term transformation as well as direct citizen access to services. We continue to work with National Assembly deputies on drafting key legislative proposals, including laws relating to the financing of political parties, decentralization, the establishment of a national election commission, and the protection of human rights. We have also conducted capacity-building seminars for deputies and their staffs, supported the creation of provincial watchdog and advocacy groups to encourage citizen participation in democratic processes, and worked to develop skills of political party members, foster grassroots anti-corruption initiatives, and establish mobile courts and legal aid clinics. -------------- ECONOMIC GROWTH -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The Congolese population, estimated at over 60 million people, has not benefited from the country's vast array of natural resources (minerals, forests, hydroelectric potential). With over 90 percent unemployment and an informal sector that rivals the formal economy, most people survive on less than one dollar a day. Despite annual GDP growth since 2003 of over five percent, per capita GDP is only just over USD 100. It is estimated that at the current growth rate, it will take until the middle of this century for per capita income to reach pre-independence levels. ¶14. (SBU) Despite some progress on macroeconomic and financial reform objectives since 2003, the International Monetary Fund Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) lapsed in April 2006, due mainly to continued government overspending. This resulted in further losses of outside assistance for a budget of only USD 2 billion in 2006. The DRC has been granted Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) status, but with no PRGF in place, is not making progress toward achieving the debt reduction envisioned. If an IMF program can be renegotiated before the end of 2007, the DRC could see some debt forgiveness (including nearly half a billion dollars still owed to the U.S.) by the end of 2008. ¶15. (SBU) The 2007 budget, signed into law by President Kabila in the second half of this year, calls for an unrealistic expenditure level of USD 2.4 billion, much of it for government salaries (including civil servants, public school teachers and military personnel) and the security sector. Without much-needed outside budget support, the GDRC KINSHASA 00000983 004 OF 005 faces large deficits again in 2007, which historically it has reacted to with large amounts of currency issuance. The GDRC is normally able to support less than half of its budget from revenues. So far in 2007, GDRC spending has been strictly contained within budgetary limits, but many of its expenses come due only during the last quarter of the year. ¶16. (SBU) The GDRC is attempting to implement its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) as approved in mid-2006 by the IMF and World Bank boards. The five-year government program approved by the National Assembly in February 2007 is based on the PRSP and focuses heavily on the five areas highlighted by President Kabila in his campaign: infrastructure, employment, education, water/electricity, and health. Economic growth depends upon all of these objectives, but the GDRC will need to dramatically increase revenues from the natural resource sector, continue to control spending, and renegotiate an IMF program if it is to achieve debt relief and obtain additional outside budget assistance. ¶17. (SBU) The USG is an active participant in the international donors' Country Assistance Framework (CAF) process for the period 2007-10, designed to align assistance strategies and support GDRC efforts to implement the PRSP. USG programs in support of economic growth are fairly modest, with USD 4 million going to agricultural production, but this may be doubled for FY2008. U.S. commercial interests in the DRC are small but growing, with an American company running the largest flour mill in the country and an American mining company gearing up to produce an estimated 100,000 tons of copper metal by the end of 2008. USAID and the British Department for International Development (DFID) are collaborating on efforts to help the GDRC implement the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). USAID, through the Central African Regional Program for the Environment (CARPE) and the Congo Basin Forestry Partnership (CBFP) is working to promoted better management of the forestry sector. Finally, a U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) initiative is looking at the hydroelectricity and transportation (river and rail) sectors for opportunities for U.S. business contributions to DRC infrastructure. -------------- HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE -------------- ¶18. (SBU) Disaster relief and food assistance funds represent approximately one-half of all U.S. foreign assistance to the DRC, excluding support to MONUC. Four million people are estimated to have died as a consequence of 10 years of war and conflict. Low-level combat continues to cause large-scale population displacements in eastern areas of the country. Many social and economic support structures have collapsed as a result of neglect, corruption and lack of resources, leaving victims without livelihoods, access to medical services and in many cases, places to live. ¶19. (SBU) A July 2007 report from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance estimated there are more than 1.1 million internally displaced people (IDPs) in the DRC, most in the eastern regions of North Kivu, South Kivu and Ituri. While the number of IDPs has substantially decreased in Ituri in recent months, the number of displaced in North Kivu has dramatically increased due to pervasive insecurity. An estimated 321,000 Congolese refugees remain in neighboring countries awaiting repatriation. ¶20. (SBU) Total non-food IDFA funding in FY2006 was USD 26 million. The U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) provides transportation and a start-up cash package to returning IDPs, and is mounting labor-intensive road rehabilitation programs. The USG provided USD 36 million of food assistance in 2006, most channeled through the World Food Program for distribution in conflict areas. -------------- HEALTH -------------- ¶21. (SBU) Congolese social indicators are dismal: the DRC ranked 167th out of the 177 countries in the 2006 UNDP Human Development Report. Health indicators are among the worst in the world. Infant and child mortality are 126 and 213 per KINSHASA 00000983 005 OF 005 thousand live births, respectively. Many preventable infectious diseases are prevalent, notably malaria, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. HIV/AIDS infection rates stand at 4 percent of all adults, or approximately 1 million people -- among the top ten totals in the world. ¶22. (SBU) Health is our largest development effort. The public health care system is in near complete collapse throughout the country. Lack of equipment, trained personnel, adequate facilities and supplies are among the obstacles preventing access to basic health care. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide an estimated 80 percent of the limited care available. We plan to program over USD 55 million for primary pediatric health care in 82 rural health zones over the next three years, and continue to support national tuberculosis and polio eradication efforts. USAID plans to provide USD 12 million over four years for HIV/AIDS prevention and care; CDC funds surveillance and pediatric HIV/AIDS programs DOD has programs for military prevention and care; and State has an innovative public diplomacy program to increase HIV/AIDS awareness. -------------- YOUR VISIT -------------- ¶23. (SBU) Currently the mood in Congo is hopeful, as the Congolese people look to their newly-elected leadership to put in place institutions and practices which will build on its democratic gains, and urgently address their very real needs. There are, however, signs the population is growing impatient with the pace of the government's efforts. We ask that you help us to reinforce the following messages: -- The Congolese people rightfully expect responsible leadership at home as well as supportive international partners. We will continue working with the new leadership as it develops transparent practices and establishes good governance for the well-being of the Congolese people. -- Voters are eager to realize tangible benefits from their investment in democracy. They must cease being made victims of violence. -- Congo has taken remarkable strides to replace war with peaceful democratic change. The successful elections were a tangible demonstration 's desire for peaceful governance. The United States is eager to see that momentum continue. -- The Congolese population deserves to live in peace with itself and its neighbors. We urge the government to facilitate the completion of the military integration process and the return of all foreign armed groups to their countries of origin. We encourage political and military authorities to pursue a peaceful resolution of the security problems of eastern Congo. -- Intensifying diplomatic efforts vis-a-vis all neighboring countries is key to consolidating peace in the region. We encourage increased contacts with Ugandan and Rwandan officials to resolve issues of mutual concern. We applaud the recent agreement with Angola to delineate the border with support from the former colonial powers. -- The United States will continue to support and work closely with MONUC to bring about political reconciliation and to prevent further conflict in the DRC and the region. ¶24. (SBU) Demonstrating your appreciation of the difficult problems the country faces and encouraging the government to work together with its partners to solve the DRC's many challenges will emphasize the USG's engagement with the Congolese people. These messages will also reassure them that we look forward to a long partnership to help address longstanding structural issues while promoting tolerance and shared commitment. BROCK