NORTH KIVU TENSION CONTINUE TO MOUNT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000792 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KPKO ASEC CG SUBJECT: NORTH KIVU TENSION CONTINUE TO MOUNT REF: A. USUN 557 ¶B. KINSHASA 754 ¶C. KINSHASA 752 Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece. Reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) P3 2 Ambassadors (France, U.K., U.S., Belgium, and South Africa) met with UN SRSG Swing July 9 to review the situation in North Kivu. As of the meeting, there had been no follow-up from President Kabila to the P3 2 letter given to Kabila June 30. Moreover, contrary to Kabila,s statements of intent to Swing June 30, Kabila did not travel to the AU summit in Accra, nor does it appear that he has had any recent contact with GOR President Kagame. (Note: P3 2 Ambassadors and SRSG Swing were notified late July 10 that Kabila had agreed to a meeting the morning of July 11 to discuss the situation in the Kivus. End note). ¶2. (C) Information available from various sources to the P3 2 Ambassadors and MONUC indicate that the GDRC is continuing to send arms and munitions to North Kivu province. These include up to ten T-55 tanks and a like number of APC's reportedly currently in Kisangani en route to Goma, although several of the Chiefs of Mission noted that it is not clear how these vehicles are to be shipped to Goma, or the time frame for such shipments. There are also reports that plans and orders are moving forward to deploy up to three integrated brigades to North Kivu. MONUC staff speculated that such deployments could be completed by the end of the month. There are hard-liners in the Presidency, perhaps most notably security advisor Samba Kaputo, advocating aggressive action against Nkunda. ¶3. (C) MONUC reported that orders have been issued to "mixed" brigade military units perceived to be loyal to dissident general Laurent Nkunda to leave Goma to redeploy in the area of Sake. To-date, there has been no reported movement of these troops. Tensions continue to be high if not building in North Kivu, with both government supporters and Nkunda forces apparently fearing potential offensive action(s) by the other. ¶4. (C) On a more positive note, National Assembly President Kamerhe, Senate President Kengo wa Dondo, and Foreign Minister Mbusa Nyamwisi among other officials continue to advocate strongly the need for a "comprehensive" approach to North Kivu, and the grave risks associated with any military offensive action in the near future. While de facto opposition leader Kengo likely has little influence at the Presidency, Kamerhe and to a lesser degree Mbusa do, and both are from the Kivus. Indeed, Mbusa told the French Ambassador the morning of July 9 that Mbusa had held an extensive discussion on Sunday, July 8, with President Kabila, and Mbusa said he was convinced that Kabila had been persuaded of the merits of a "global" (vs. military) solution to the problems of the Kivus. ¶5. (C) All of the P3 2 Ambassadors noted that Rwandan government officials appear relatively sanguine about currently relations with the GDRC, presumably to include the situation in North Kivu. While clearly concerned, there are no obvious signs of perceived imminent crisis. The Belgian Ambassador in particular, however, underscored concerns that the Kigali government may implicitly be supporting the growing tensions in North Kivu, potentially to justify renewed intervention or other activity relative to eastern DRC. SRSG Swing announced that he hopes to travel to Kigali early next week to brief President Kagame about current MONUC plans and deployments in eastern DRC. ¶6. (C) The South African Ambassador also reported plans for a meeting soon in Luanda of the SADC Troika (Tanzania, Namibia, and Angola) at the Head of State level with the DRC to be a principal agenda item. Reportedly, Tanzanian President Kikwete was considering a stop in Kinshasa o/a July 15 en route to the Luanda meeting, although no dates were specified. ¶7. (C) Comment: The meeting produced no new initiatives and broke little new ground. All agreed to continue addressing the issue, emphasizing the need to avoid unwise precipitate military action in contacts with Congolese interlocutors. All also agreed the main imminent risk is a clash or accidental incident escalating out of control in the general climate of tensions currently prevalent in the Kivus. The July 10 notice of a Wednesday meeting with Kabila is a hopeful sign. In a best case scenario, the meeting can help chart a constructive course forward for the Kivus, and begin KINSHASA 00000792 002 OF 002 to reestablish a positive foundation for ongoing contacts with Kabila. In an evening preparatory meeting, all P3 2 Ambassadors agreed that it would be important to conduct an open exchange with Kabila, but maintain a positive tone in the meeting to the greatest extent possible. End comment. MEECE