NORTH KIVU TENSION CONTINUE TO MOUNT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000792

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KPKO ASEC CG
SUBJECT: NORTH KIVU TENSION CONTINUE TO MOUNT

REF: A. USUN 557

B. KINSHASA 754

C. KINSHASA 752

Classified By: Ambassador Roger Meece. Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) P3 2 Ambassadors (France, U.K., U.S., Belgium, and
South Africa) met with UN SRSG Swing July 9 to review the
situation in North Kivu. As of the meeting, there had been
no follow-up from President Kabila to the P3 2 letter given
to Kabila June 30. Moreover, contrary to Kabila,s
statements of intent to Swing June 30, Kabila did not travel
to the AU summit in Accra, nor does it appear that he has had
any recent contact with GOR President Kagame. (Note: P3 2
Ambassadors and SRSG Swing were notified late July 10 that
Kabila had agreed to a meeting the morning of July 11 to
discuss the situation in the Kivus. End note).


2. (C) Information available from various sources to the P3 2
Ambassadors and MONUC indicate that the GDRC is continuing to
send arms and munitions to North Kivu province. These
include up to ten T-55 tanks and a like number of APC's
reportedly currently in Kisangani en route to Goma, although
several of the Chiefs of Mission noted that it is not clear
how these vehicles are to be shipped to Goma, or the time
frame for such shipments. There are also reports that plans
and orders are moving forward to deploy up to three
integrated brigades to North Kivu. MONUC staff speculated
that such deployments could be completed by the end of the
month. There are hard-liners in the Presidency, perhaps most
notably security advisor Samba Kaputo, advocating aggressive
action against Nkunda.


3. (C) MONUC reported that orders have been issued to "mixed"
brigade military units perceived to be loyal to dissident
general Laurent Nkunda to leave Goma to redeploy in the area
of Sake. To-date, there has been no reported movement of
these troops. Tensions continue to be high if not building
in North Kivu, with both government supporters and Nkunda
forces apparently fearing potential offensive action(s) by
the other.


4. (C) On a more positive note, National Assembly President
Kamerhe, Senate President Kengo wa Dondo, and Foreign
Minister Mbusa Nyamwisi among other officials continue to
advocate strongly the need for a "comprehensive" approach to
North Kivu, and the grave risks associated with any military
offensive action in the near future. While de facto
opposition leader Kengo likely has little influence at the
Presidency, Kamerhe and to a lesser degree Mbusa do, and both
are from the Kivus. Indeed, Mbusa told the French Ambassador
the morning of July 9 that Mbusa had held an extensive
discussion on Sunday, July 8, with President Kabila, and
Mbusa said he was convinced that Kabila had been persuaded of
the merits of a "global" (vs. military) solution to the
problems of the Kivus.


5. (C) All of the P3 2 Ambassadors noted that Rwandan
government officials appear relatively sanguine about
currently relations with the GDRC, presumably to include the
situation in North Kivu. While clearly concerned, there are
no obvious signs of perceived imminent crisis. The Belgian
Ambassador in particular, however, underscored concerns that
the Kigali government may implicitly be supporting the
growing tensions in North Kivu, potentially to justify
renewed intervention or other activity relative to eastern
DRC. SRSG Swing announced that he hopes to travel to Kigali
early next week to brief President Kagame about current MONUC
plans and deployments in eastern DRC.


6. (C) The South African Ambassador also reported plans for a
meeting soon in Luanda of the SADC Troika (Tanzania, Namibia,
and Angola) at the Head of State level with the DRC to be a
principal agenda item. Reportedly, Tanzanian President
Kikwete was considering a stop in Kinshasa o/a July 15 en
route to the Luanda meeting, although no dates were specified.


7. (C) Comment: The meeting produced no new initiatives and
broke little new ground. All agreed to continue addressing
the issue, emphasizing the need to avoid unwise precipitate
military action in contacts with Congolese interlocutors.
All also agreed the main imminent risk is a clash or
accidental incident escalating out of control in the general
climate of tensions currently prevalent in the Kivus. The
July 10 notice of a Wednesday meeting with Kabila is a
hopeful sign. In a best case scenario, the meeting can help
chart a constructive course forward for the Kivus, and begin

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to reestablish a positive foundation for ongoing contacts
with Kabila. In an evening preparatory meeting, all P3 2
Ambassadors agreed that it would be important to conduct an
open exchange with Kabila, but maintain a positive tone in
the meeting to the greatest extent possible. End comment.
MEECE