FACTORS DRIVING NORTH KIVU'S SECURITY CONCERNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000754 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV KPKO ASEC MOPS CG SUBJECT: FACTORS DRIVING NORTH KIVU'S SECURITY CONCERNS REF: A. KINSHASA 180 ¶B. KINSHASA 487 ¶C. KINSHASA 539 ¶D. KINSHASA 752 Classified By: PolOff CBrown, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) Summary: The growing sense of insecurity in North Kivu is being driven by a variety of military and political factors. The GDRC has failed to follow through on the integration of the so-called "mixed" brigades, whose presence has contributed to rising tensions since the beginning of the year. Continuing low-level fighting involving the Congolese military, the FDLR, and various rival Mai-Mai factions have contributed to these concerns. Increasingly public activities by dissident General Laurent Nkunda and his political front group have further added to tensions. The provincial government's ability to respond to the situation has been stalled as the governor has had to thwart a no-confidence measure against him. End summary. -------------- TENSIONS SINCE DECEMBER, FAILURE OF "MIXAGE" -------------- ¶2. (C) Security in the province has been tenuous since the November-December 2006 attacks by pro-Nkunda troops on Sake and other locations in North Kivu. A December/January accord between Nkunda and then Air Forces Commander General John Numbi (named in mid-June as Police Inspector General) ended hostilities and led to the so-called "mixage" process that was promoted as a short-term solution, with the expectation that both pro-Nkunda and pro-government forces would all be formally integrated into the army at a later date. "Mixage" actually increased security concerns (ref A),as the mixed brigades, notably Bravo and Charlie, which have a significant number of Nkunda loyalists in them, have stolen from and harassed the civilian population, further adding to existing animosities between the area's ethnic groups. While "mixage" has ostensibly ended, these "mixed" units have not yet been given orders to integrate into the national army and remain deployed throughout the southern portions of North Kivu. MONUC military officials report that many forces in these units commit exactions against locals. -------------- LOW-LEVEL CONFLICTS -------------- ¶3. (C) In addition to the harassment and exactions of the "mixed" brigades, small-scale fighting has continued in North Kivu on several fronts. Several mixed brigades conducted 
limited operations against suspected FDLR forces in Rutshuru territory in late March and early April (ref B). This offensive quickly ended, however, after troops ran out of ammunition, food and logistical support. Clashes between rival Mayi-Mayi militias also continue, including several firefights in early July that killed at least four fighters loyal to Mayi-Mayi commander Colonel Jackson. These conflicts have caused tens of thousands to flee according to humanitarian officials, adding to the already large number of IDPs who fled following the Sake attacks in November (ref C). -------------- NKUNDA'S GROWING PUBLIC PROFILE -------------- ¶4. (C) Local tensions have also increased due to Nkunda's increasingly public profile. The dissident general has been conducting a public relations offensive in the past few weeks giving several interviews with local and international media. Throughout, Nkunda expressed his displeasure with the government's failure to keep alleged promises made in the "mixage" deal, plus his overall disappointment with Kabila's government. He also published his own "evaluation" of mixage that claims North Kivu has been made safer thanks to the actions of the mixed brigades against the FDLR. In addition, Nkunda spoke to at least three public rallies in North Kivu in the past month, reportedly attended by thousands of people, to advance his agenda and promote his political front, the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP). ¶5. (C) MONUC political officers in Goma and Kinshasa said Nkunda is effectively setting up a "parallel administration" in North Kivu through his CNDP proxies. Local authorities in North Kivu report as well that CNDP officials have been KINSHASA 00000754 002 OF 002 active throughout the province. (Note: CNDP is not an officially recognized political party, and therefore any of its "political" activities are illegal. CNDP officials have appealed to the GDRC to be granted official status. End note.) Crispin Atana, the North Kivu director of the National Intelligence Agency (ANR),told PolOff June 25 CNDP members have been holding "recruitment" meetings regularly in Masisi and Rutshuru territories, often including commanding officers from several of the mixed brigades. Atana added that some CNDP members have been caught trying to extort taxes from local merchants and at illegal checkpoints in the province. ¶6. (C) CNDP members have reportedly tried to install their own officials into local government and security positions. Lt. Col. Maurice Kanyamukenge, the police inspector general of Rutshuru territory, told us CNDP members have attempted to replace some police commanders in the region in favor of sympathetic officers who have allegedly been "trained" by Nkunda. MONUC officials in Goma reported that CNDP members have replaced at least one government-appointed local official in North Kivu with a CNDP loyalist. Humanitarian officials in the province told us alleged CNDP officials entered IDP camps and ordered inhabitants to leave, while alleged Nkunda loyalists in the mixed brigades have stolen food from the camps. -------------- PROVINCIAL POLITICAL PROBLEMS -------------- ¶7. (C) North Kivu's security problems have played out against the background of a political battle between the governor and some members of the provincial assembly. A group of deputies in early June threatened to submit a no-confidence measure against Governor Julien Paluku, which, if passed, would have required him to step down. While the motion was never brought to a vote, Paluku and assembly members have been negotiating a compromise for most of the past month which has largely stalled other legislative business. The deputies claimed Paluku was guilty of "incompetence" and of practicing "ethnic favoritism." Critics charged Paluku, an ethnic Nande, was favoring his own ethnic group over others by giving four of ten cabinet positions to Nandes. The motion was originally raised by deputies primarily from the pro-Kabila PPRD party, which had supported another candidate over Paluku in the gubernatorial race. -------------- COMMENT: GROWING WORSE AS RUMORS ABOUND -------------- ¶8. (C) Comment: Tensions in North Kivu are increasing, though there is no indication a wider conflict with Nkunda is imminent. The lack of a clear government response to security concerns, however, only heightens the level of tension and the speculation that renewed armed conflict is unavoidable. End comment. MEECE