KABILA ALLIES WITH APPARENT MAJORITY IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000066 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: GOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: KABILA ALLIES WITH APPARENT MAJORITY IN PRELIMINARY SENATE TALLY ¶1. (U) Summary. Allies of President Joseph Kabila look to be able to form a majority in the DRC Senate elected by indirect vote January 19. Transitional Vice Presidents Bemba and Yerodia won seats, as did several transitional ministers and a number of insiders from the Mobutu and Laurent Kabila eras. Independents accounted for the largest number of seats with 26, followed by Kabila's PPRD with 22, and Bemba's MLC with 14. Strong showings by the parties of ministerial hopefuls Nyamwisi, Endundo and Ruberwa strengthened their cases for positions in the as-yet-unannounced government. End summary. ¶2. (U) Parties aligned with President Joseph Kabila's electoral coalition appear to have won a majority in the DRC Senate voted by provincial assembly deputies January 19. The 108 senators, together with the 500 National Assembly deputies elected July 30, will constitute the DRC's first democratically-elected legislature in over 40 years. The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) announced preliminary results January 20 pending final review by the Supreme Court January 22. The Senate is scheduled to commence work February 3. ¶3. (U) Early estimates indicate Kabila's AMP coalition won a slight paper majority of seats. In fact, it should be able to count on close to 60 of the 108 seats after factoring in known supporters running as independents. The totals should enable the governing coalition to choose the president of the Senate, who would be first in line of succession if President Kabila were unable to complete his term. ¶4. (U) Two Transitional Vice Presidents, Jean-Pierre Bemba and Abdoulaye Yerodia, were among those elected, from Kinshasa and Bas-Congo respectively. The vote will provide Bemba an institutional platform to lead a political opposition. Yerodia, comrade-in-arms of Laurent Kabila, is a leading candidate in early speculation regarding possible Senate presidents. ¶5. (U) Other prominent names include a number of ministers of the Transition, including Foreign Minister Raymond Ramazani, Economy Minister Moise Nyarugabu and Lands Minister Venant Tshipasa, former Finance Minister Andre-Philippe Futa, the heads of the transitional media and human rights oversight bodies, respectively Modeste Mutinga and Mwamus Mwamba Mushikonke, and the president of the transitional Senate, Monsignor Pierre Marini. The vote will also return to government almost a dozen figures from Mobutu's inner circle, notably former prime minsisters Leon Kengo wa Dondo and Vincent Lunda Bululu, as well as "Mobutu's Foccart," Edouard Mokolo wa Mpombo, in company with a large handful of other senior intelligence and internal security officials from the Mobutu and Laurent Kabila eras. ¶6. (U) The Senate will include a number of former provincial governors, traditional chiefs, a Katanga journalist, at least two parastatal CEOs, and Francois Kaniki, the brother of Kisangani's influential Catholic Archbishop Monsignor Laurent Monsengwo. Only five women were elected, two of them MLC candidates from Kinshasa: former governor Bernadette Nkoy Mafuta, and Bemba coalition spokeswoman and unsuccessful National Assembly candidate Eve Bazaiba, an ex-UDPS militant who gained notoriety for incendiary rhetoric during the presidential campaign. Kabila chief of staff Leonard She Okitundu, also rumored as a candidate for Senate president along with Marini and Futa, and the fathers of MLC leaders Bemba and Delly Sesanga, were also elected. 7 (U) Two of the new senators have unusual American connections: Bishop Pierre Ntambo Nkulu Ntanda, a leading international figure in the United Methodist Church from President Kabila's home region of North Katanga, who heads Africa University of Nashville, Tennessee, and Edouard Mwangachuchu, a one-time Tutsi refugee to the United States who has become a leading Congolese trader and exporter of coltan. ¶8. (U) Independents accounted for the largest number of seats with 26, followed by the PPRD with 22 and MLC with 14. PPRD candidates won seats in all provinces but South Kivu, while over two-thirds of MLC senators will come from just two provinces, Equateur and Kinshasa. The Forces du Renouveau of ministerial hopeful Mbusa Nyamwisi won seven seats, former minister Jose Endundo's PDC took six, and Azarias Ruberwa's RCD picked up five. No other party, including Antoine Gizenga's PALU and Mobutu Nzanga's UDEMO, won more than three KINSHASA 00000066 002 OF 002 seats. ¶9. (U) Detailed reports to follow septel. ¶10. (U) Comment: From all reports, the vote in the eleven provincial assemblies appears to have gone smoothly. The Senate will have far less power than the National Assembly, but its members will bring a depth of experience to legislation that the Assembly currently lacks. End comment. MEECE