KABILA COALITION WILL LEAD SEVEN OF DRC'S ELEVEN

UNCLAS KINSHASA 000051 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS SUBJECT: KABILA COALITION WILL LEAD SEVEN OF DRC'S ELEVEN PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLIES ¶1. (SBU) Summary: President Joseph Kabila's Alliance for the Presidential Majority (AMP) coalition -- which includes Prime Minister Antoine Gizenga's PALU and Nzanga Mobutu's UDEMO parties -- will lead seven of the DRC's eleven provincial assemblies, following votes January 12-14. Former Vice President Jean-Pierre Bemba's Union for the Nation (UN) alliance will lead the remaining four assemblies. The makeup of certain provincial assemblies' executive offices may have an impact on the outcome of the upcoming elections for senators and governors. End summary. ¶2. (U) Provincial deputies voted January 12-14 for the leadership positions in their respective assemblies. The pro-Kabila AMP -- whose major parties include the PPRD, Gizenga's PALU, and Nzanga's UDEMO -- won executive control of seven of the DRC's eleven provincial assemblies: Bandundu, Katanga, Maniema, North Kivu, South Kivu, Orientale, and Eastern Kasai. Bemba's UN alliance will lead the remaining four: Bas-Congo, Equateur, Kinshasa, and Western Kasai. Each assembly is led by five members, including a president, vice president, spokesman ("rapporteur"),deputy spokesman, and administrative/financial officer ("questeur"). These members will set the assemblies' legislative agendas and processes. ¶3. (U) Results were lopsided in all but one province, with one or the other coalition winning four or five of the five available seats. The exception was Western Kasai province, where the UN coalition won three positions to two for an AMP-Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) coalition. ¶4. (U) The pro-Kabila AMP-PALU-UDEMO coalition initially won the majority of seats in six of the DRC's eleven provincial assemblies following the October 30 elections. The AMP later forged an alliance with former Vice President Azarias Ruberwa's Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) to create a majority coalition in both Eastern and Western Kasai, where the RCD won a significant number of seats. This alliance would have given the AMP control of the leadership of eight provincial assemblies. ¶5. (SBU) The AMP-RCD alliance faltered, however, during the leadership race in Western Kasai. The UN coalition, led by members of Bemba's Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC),won three of the assembly's five leadership positions, including the presidency and vice presidency. The remaining two slots went to the PPRD and the RCD. The AMP-RCD coalition failed to win a majority despite its numbers because deputies voted more along ethnic than party lines. ¶6. (SBU) The UN alliance's control of Western Kasai's assembly could affect the upcoming elections for the province's senators and governor, who will be chosen by provincial deputies on January 19 and 27, respectively. There are 60 candidates running for eight national senate seats, evenly split between AMP and UN candidates. The contest for governor could likewise be affected. Former Vice Minister of Budget Tresor Kapuku (a member of the RCD running as an AMP candidate) had been the favorite against MLC candidate Alexandre Kande in a field of four candidates. The UN alliance's hold over the assembly's leadership could swing votes among the deputies. ¶7. (SBU) Likewise in Kinshasa and North Kivu, control of the executive offices -- based on political and ethnic compositions -- could influence gubernatorial elections. In Kinshasa, where the MLC won four of the assembly's executive positions, businessman Martin Fayulu (an independent candidate, but with ties to both Kabila and Bemba) has been running a close race against MLC candidate Adam Bombole. While the AMP holds all five seats in North Kivu's assembly leadership, it is controlled by deputies of Nande origin which disfavors current governor Eugene Serufuli (a Hutu), who is attempting to retain his position (septel). ¶8. (SBU) Comment: With these elections, the Kabila coalition now controls the offices of President and Prime Minister, the leadership committees of the National Assembly and the majority of provincial assemblies -- the levers of power at nearly all levels of government. Races for senators and governors will very likely continue this trend. We think it unlikely these coalitions as currently constituted will hold in the coming months, though, as they were created more out of political opportunity than ideological compatibility. End comment. MEECE