Goma Situation Report for December 7, 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001350 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM MOPS PREL PREF KPKO CG SUBJECT: Goma Situation Report for December 7, 2007 SENSTIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PROTECT ACCORDINGLY Note: The following report was provided by Embassy Kinshasa's political officer in Goma. End note. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The FARDC military offensive has stalled at Kibati -- a high point along the track north from Sake -- where Nkunda has continued to bring in reinforcements and evidently taken a stand. Speaking to the humanitarian community in North Kivu, MONUC Force Commander General Babacar Gaye acknowledged the difficulty of balancing MONUC's obligation to protect the civilian population with its commitment to give FARDC as much support as possible (short of combat). OCHA and MONUC/Civil Affairs advocate moving IDP's in Kirolirwe a short distance east or west, rather than their going north to Kitchanga, but as the local populace has already moved most of their cattle north, it may be too late to prevent a concentration of IDP's at Nkunda's principal town. End Summary. Military Offensive: Stalled at Kibati -------------- ¶2. (SBU) MONUC military briefer indicated to poloff December 7 that the FARDC had "not had much success" in penetrating through Kibati (six miles north of Sake on the track to Kirolirwe and Kitchanga). Nkunda, thought to be present at Kibati, had continued to bring up reinforcements (another 60 men, to total about 400) and appeared to be taking a stand at Kibati. The terrain there, near the local watershed divide, gave Nkunda a greater advantage than he would have in the more open terrain further north; it was the best place for Nkunda to take a stand. FARDC has positioned one brigade for the attack on Kibati, leaving the other two brigades that had taken part in the fighting at Mushaki to consolidate the FARDC's hold there and another further west on the Masisi road. MONUC had helicoptered out 88 FARDC casualties thus far, and 30-35 Nkunda soldiers were being treated at the hospital at Kitchanga. The Kingi-Kibati area was not heavily populated and such population as exists had mostly fled in advance of the fighting, but there was still some civilian population which would undoubtedly feel the effect of ongoing shelling. There was still no military activity in the Rutshuru sector. General Gaye Speaks to the Humanitarian Community -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) During his December 7 visit to Goma, MONUC Force Commander General Babacar Gaye had an hour's question-and-answer session with representatives of UN agencies and NGO's in North Kivu. He opened by stressing that it was very difficult for MONUC to balance its obligation to protect the civilian population with its commitment to give maximum support to FARDC (not including combat) in its present campaign against Nkunda. As in the follow-on press conference, Gaye was peppered with questions about MONUC's capability to restrain FARDC's proclivity to pillage and loot, to which Gaye responded that MONUC could only do its best to stress at every opportunity the vital importance of conducting this campaign with minimum harm to the civilian population, and he urged the humanitarian community to carry the same message to the FARDC commanders in North Kivu. Gaye alluded to an imminent FARDC thrust toward Tongo (ten miles west of the Goma-Rutshuru road, on the main corridor of Nkunda's contact with his pocket of control on the Uganda-Rwanda border) where, he said, it would be equally important for the FARDC to avoid harm to the civilian population. He noted that the initial plan for the military campaign was for it to be a 40-day operation, and that the performance so far suggested that FARDC was within schedule. He mentioned the possibility of Kirolirwe refugees moving south instead of north. ¶4. (SBU) OCHA said that it had developed an urgent plan, in coordination with UNHCR, to try to facilitate the removal of IDP's in Kirolirwe a short distance east or west, enough to move them out of the path of fighting but not too far from their fields at harvest time, when it was going to be impossible for the humanitarian community to have access to the area. What OCHA wanted to avoid was the movement of the IDP's and other civilian population at Kirolirwe north to the more populous Kitchanga, as it was likely that fighting would follow them into Kitchanga and that their presence would aggravate the problem of protecting the civilian population of Kitchanga. OCHA discounted the possibility that the IDP's would be willing to move south. WFP expressed concern that it now appeared the military campaign would drag out, elongating the period during which humanitarian assistance would be difficult to bring to the populace, and also noted particular concern about opening a new front at Tongo, where the rate of malnutrition was already the highest in North Kivu. UNICEF expressed anxiety about FARDC's indiscriminate use of artillery, using ammunition supplied by MONUC. ICRC said it would be present on the scene with a surgical team in KINSHASA 00001350 002 OF 002 Kitchanga and hoped that MONUC's personnel in Kirolirwe and Kitchanga would take an active role in protecting any NGO's functioning in the zone. MONUC/Civil Affairs observed that FARDC had already resorted to looting in its take-over of Mushaki, but that it was essential FARDC maintain a presence in areas taken from Nkunda, as it was likely that FDLR and militias would fill any vacuum. ¶5. (SBU) In a separate conversation with poloff, MONUC/Civil Affairs director Joseph Inganji said that MONUC estimated there were a minimum of 30,000 civilians in Kirolirwe, of which there were as many as 15,000 IDP's, who were almost entirely Tutsis who had fled earlier fighting in Ngungu and Mushaki (mostly women and children, the men having joined Nkunda's ranks). The IDP's were having meetings to decide when and whether to flee. Inganji agreed that the best idea was for the civilian population to move a short distance east or west, enough to get out of harm's way and definitely not go north to Kitchanga. However, MONUC had learned that the local populace had already moved 80 percent of their cattle northward, so it seemed likely that they would not heed the advice to move east or west. According to Inganji, Kitchanga is the largest community in Nkunda's zone of control, with a population of over 80,000 (to include 10,000 IDP's). ¶6. (SBU) Belgian Consul General Hugues Chantry, based in Bukavu but visiting Goma, told poloff subsequently that, during a conversation with Gaye, Gaye had underscored to him that MONUC would use its helicopters and firepower to help FARDC only in the case of debacle. Gaye had commented that the FARDC had "gotten through the easy part" and was now entering the tough phase, militarily and politically. North Kivu Governor Julien Paluku had spoken to Chantry of a "seven-day campaign." The FARDC deputy commander Col. Delphin Kahimbi had spoken of a "20-day campaign," while Gaye had spoken of a 40-day campaign. Garvelink