INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY NOT PREPARED FOR WORST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001283 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR BLEO E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREF MOPS PINS PREL KPKO RW CG SUBJECT: INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY NOT PREPARED FOR WORST CASE IN NORTH KIVU KINSHASA 00001283 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge S.Brock (1.4 b/d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Senior Advisor to Assistant Secretary Frazer for Conflict Resolution, Timothy Shortley met with the DRC Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, the United Nations Country Team (UNCT) and separately with other NGO and UN officials on October 29 prior to traveling to North Kivu. Common themes discussed in these meetings included the international community's responsibility for civilian protection, the lack of adequate resources and preparedness to provide this protection, and contingency planning for the escalation of the existing worst case scenario as identified by the UN. The UN and NGOs stated that: (1) previous worst case scenarios have already been exceeded; (2) additional assistance and support were critical to increase present levels of aid and capacity to manage the major humanitarian crisis; and (3) no broad protection plan between the UN and NGOs exists or a common civilian-military approach between the international community and MONUC to provide civilian protection. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) UN and NGOs consistently reported that previously predicted worst case scenarios had been exceeded and the humanitarian community lacked the capacity, resources and mandate to meet existing assistance and protection requirements. If the situation worsened as predicted and expected by all agencies, limited UN and NGO capacity and resourcing constraints will mean that critical needs will be unmet. The situation would be further exacerbated if access was cut off because of security and the limited availability to use MONUC escorts as protection for humanitarian operations. ¶3. (SBU) The UNHCR Country Representative in charge of civilian protection among UN agencies, acknowledged that they are not in a position to provide civilian protection and require additional capacities and resources. The UNHCR Representative also stated that the controversial policy of establishing IDP camps is their main modality for civilian protection. UNHCR also stated that they have only prepared for limiting fighting and displacement and that any large scale conflict would overwhelm the UN and implementing partners. UNHCR has requested USG help with materials, protection of staff, and camp management operations. The OCHA Representative also referred to a lack of civilian protection capacity and asked for USG support in creating safe corridors for movements of OCHA staff and civilians. ¶4. (SBU) Oxfam, Care International, and Save the Children representatives believe that UN preparedness in the Kivus has improved, but still not adequate, since the UN started talking to NGO's. NGOs also believe that longer term transitional and development programs are needed to avoid a perpetuating cycle of conflict. The WFP Representative acknowledged that it has prepared for a movement of between 5,000 and 15,000 people, but do not have the necessary food resources to provide for civilians in large numbers. The WFP believes that a massive flow of people will follow in two directions, one south towards Sake and one east toward the border with Rwanda. With regard to protection, WFP said that there is not a UN plan to protect civilians in large numbers. In discussions with the UN Country Team, MONUC admitted that it has not prepared for a worst case scenario of large scale conflict and massive population movements and agreed that additional scenario planning was needed to ensure that resources and capacity were available to meet needs under an scenario where the worst case scenario was exceeded. ¶5. (C) The DRC Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, known for making several xenophobic statements against Tutsis, as well as anti-MONUC, -UN and -NGO statements, said that the GDRC is not prepared to protect the civilian population in North Kivu and that he would like MONUC to establish a safe area for civilians in Sake. The Minister said that people in Goma do not believe MONUC will protect them because MONUC officials only protect themselves. During a recent visit to Goma, The Minister of Humanitarian Affairs also stated that NGOs should "stop helping Tutsi's" and stop providing assistance to populations within Nkunda's stronghold. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The crisis in North Kivu has exceeded previous worst case scenario predictions of the international community and yet it continues to worsen. Senior Advisor KINSHASA 00001283 002.2 OF 002 Shortley challenged the UN, NGOs and the Government to ask for the assistance they require to protect civilians. As it stands now, all agencies agree that if large scale conflict erupts in North Kivu, large portions of the population will not be protected. END COMMENT ¶7. (U) Mr. Shortley has/has cleared this message. BROCK