NORTH KIVU UPDATE (9/7/07 12:00 GMT): MONUC

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001072 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV MOPS KPKO ASEC CG SUBJECT: NORTH KIVU UPDATE (9/7/07 12:00 GMT): MONUC BROKERS CEASEFIRE AFTER NKUNDA FORCES THREATEN SAKE TAKEOVER REF: KINSHASA 1056 Classified By: Charge S. Brock (1.4 b/d) ¶1. (U) MONUC peacekeepers September 6 brokered a ceasefire between pro-government Congolese military (FARDC) units and troops loyal to dissident General Laurent Nkunda. The accord was reached after Nkunda's forces threatened to overrun the strategic North Kivu town of Sake about 20 miles west of the provincial capital Goma. As of the morning of September 7, the ceasefire appears to be holding. ¶2. (SBU) Heavy fighting broke out to the north and west of Sake in the early morning hours of September 6 between pro-Nkunda elements of the mixed Echo Brigade and pro-government troops of both Echo and the recently-arrived 15th Integrated Brigade (IB). MONUC peacekeepers quickly reinforced their own positions in Sake, driving the Nkunda loyalists to the surrounding hills. According to MONUC military officials, peacekeepers did exchange fire with the dissidents. FARDC officials confirmed at least one their helicopters, which took hits from anti-aircraft fire, bombed reported Nkunda positions around Sake. MONUC attack helicopters, which have been patrolling the area for several days, did not engage any ground forces. ¶3. (C) Congolese military and intelligence sources told us that Nkunda's forces quickly gained the upper hand in the clashes and were on the verge of capturing Sake by mid-morning before MONUC increased its force strength. One Congolese provincial deputy credibly claimed Nkunda's troops had even entered Sake and had taken control of nearly half the town. An intelligence official said a "significant" number of soldiers from the 15th IB deserted during the fighting and fled towards Goma along with the civilian population. FARDC officials told us troops from the 15th IB were slowly returning to Sake by late evening September 7. ¶4. (U) MONUC eventually negotiated the ceasefire around 12:30pm September 6 after demanding of pro-Nkunda commanders to remove their forces from Sake. According to officials in Goma, the peacekeepers stated unequivocally that they would not tolerate any attempt by Nkunda's troops to invade Sake. MONUC officials told us September 7 that Nkunda loyalists remain deployed in the hills around Sake but have not advanced. ¶5. (SBU) Casualties from the fighting around Sake remain unknown. Unconfirmed reports from local contacts and humanitarian agencies indicate there were many killed and several dozen injured on both sides. Officials with Nkunda's political front, the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP),told us more than 30 FARDC soldiers were killed in the September 6 fighting, though this figure remains unverified. CNDP representatives also claim the FARDC aerial bombing killed a number of alleged civilians. Witnesses in Sake told us there is significant material damage throughout the town. ¶6. (U) MONUC and FARDC officials estimate more than 3,000 families -- approximately 15,000 people altogether -- have fled from the general Sake area towards Goma and Minova in the past three days. Humanitarian officials said a large number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) have gathered in Mugunga about halfway between Sake and Goma. Officials with the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said they have plans to establish a new IDP camp in Mugunga soon if security conditions permit. ¶7. (C) Comment: The ceasefire is not likely to hold long and is only a prelude to further violence as both sides now try to regroup. The GDRC decision to confront Nkunda's forces looks at this point to be a serious miscalculation. His troops, though numerically inferior, are again demonstrating their superiority across the board. The army's performance reveals yet again the incompetence of military and political officials: lack of planning and logistics; virtually no command-and-control mechanisms; ill-trained and ill-disciplined troops; and a complete disregard for the humanitarian consequences of the fighting. In the November-December 2006 fighting at Sake the FARDC similarly dissolved in the face of Nkunda's forces. MONUC's last-minute intervention may be the only reason Nkunda does not control Sake and directly threaten Goma. End comment. BROCK