NORTH KIVU GOVERNOR'S OUTLOOK ON NKUNDA AND FDLR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001053

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO ASEC MOPS RW CG
SUBJECT: NORTH KIVU GOVERNOR'S OUTLOOK ON NKUNDA AND FDLR

Classified By: Charge S. Brock (1.4 b/d)


1. (C) Summary: North Kivu Governor Julien Paluku outlined
his and the GDRC's emerging approach to dealing with the twin
problems of dissident General Laurent Nkunda and FDLR
fighters in the province. He said the central government
wants to exhaust diplomatic and political options before
pursuing the use of force against Nkunda and his loyalists.
An inter-ethnic dialogue is being planned for mid-September
to begin discussion on common solutions to the region's
political and security concerns. By contrast, Paluku believes
military operations are the only remaining way to eliminate
the threat of the FDLR. He appealed for greater USG
involvement in the region, particularly through increased
diplomatic pressure on Rwanda. End summary.


2. (C) North Kivu Governor Julien Paluku met with PolOff in
Kinshasa August 29 following a discussion of several hours
with President Kabila on the region's security problems.
Paluku said Kabila is greatly concerned about the increasing
tensions and violence in the province. He said Kabila remains
deeply engaged in attempts to find ways to eliminate the
threats posed by both dissident General Laurent Nkunda and
the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).
Paluku said Kabila intends to follow a three-pronged strategy
in the coming weeks and months: diplomatic, political, and
military.


3. (C) According to Paluku, Kabila's first approach to
resolving the Kivus' problems will be diplomatic. He cited
the upcoming meeting with Rwandan Foreign Minister Murigande,
Ugandan President Museveni and the next session of the
Tripartite Plus Commission as opportunities to address common
concerns and foster better relations. The second approach
will be political and include several steps. Initially, there
will be organization of an inter-ethnic dialogue among
various Kivus actors, including politicians, religious
groups, civil society, and community leaders. Paluku added
that representatives of Nkunda will be invited to
participate, but not Nkunda himself. The session is
tentatively scheduled for September 10-15, but Paluku said
the government has not determined if it will be held in Goma,
Bukavu or Kisangani. Paluku added that officials are
currently searching for a neutral third party who could
preside over these initial sessions. The third option under
consideration would be military action against Nkunda and his
loyalists. Paluku stressed that Kabila is resolved to use
force only if the first two approaches fail. He said he does
not support military operations because of the humanitarian
consequences the fighting would have on civilians.


4. (C) Paluku took a much harder line on the FDLR. He openly
called for military action against the group as soon as
possible. Paluku said the first step should be renewed
efforts to convince the rank-and-file to return to Rwanda,
though he admitted such efforts will unlikely be successful.
He proposed creating several "transit" camps in western North
Kivu where FDLR members would willingly go (or later forcibly
sent) for repatriation. In parallel, Paluku said trained and
integrated FARDC troops should take limited military action
against FDLR leaders. He admitted such operations carry a
risk of retaliation by the FDLR against civilians if the
initial attacks are incomplete or unsuccessful.


5. (C) Paluku added that another element to any successful
outcome in the Kivus is the cooperation of Rwandan
authorities. He said additional diplomatic pressure must be
placed on Kigali and President Kagame to encourage FDLR
members to return to Rwanda. Paluku said Kigali must be
pressured into opening up political space for their return
and initiating its own national reconciliation process.
Paluku defended the DRC's inability to eliminate the FDLR,
questioning why Rwandan forces were unable to do so during
their five-year occupation in the Kivus.


6. (C) Paluku appealed for greater USG assistance, primarily
through diplomatic pressure on Rwanda. He said the U.S. can
play an active role in resolving the region's security
problems, particularly because of its influence with
neighboring governments. Paluku also asked for additional
training and assistance to build military capacity. He
specifically cited an initiative supported by the Defense
Minister Chikez Diemu and FARDC CHOD General Kayembe to build
barracks for the integrated brigades. Paluku said such a
concrete initiative would go a long way to improving the
lives of soldiers and reducing threats to local populations.


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7. (C) Comment: Paluku's outlook on North Kivu's security
situation is generally reflective of the range of solutions
to Nkunda and the FDLR being proposed by the central
government. What they lack is a clear vision of the end
state. Dialogue and diplomacy are the really only viable
options regarding the integration of Nkunda's forces and the
reduction of ethnic tensions in the province. The military is
too weak and ill-equipped to confront Nkunda directly, and
the humanitarian consequences of military operations would be
dire. By contrast, officials appear to have no solution other
than military to address the FDLR question, despite the
dangers involved. Like Paluku, they are seeking greater USG
involvement in both areas. End comment.
BROCK