JAMAICA: MOUNTING POLITICAL TENSIONS WITH APPROACH

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000953

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR - RANDALL BUDDEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI SNAR ASEC KCOR KCRM JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: MOUNTING POLITICAL TENSIONS WITH APPROACH
OF NATIONAL ELECTIONS

REF: A. KINGSTON 588 (241258 APR 07)(NOTAL)


B. KINGSTON 609 (271130Z APR 07)

C. KINGSTON 803 (241630Z MAY 07)

Classified By: Charge' Edward J. Wehrli, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary and Analysis
--------------

1.(C) A shooting and other alleged untoward incidents over
recent weeks betoken mounting tensions in the run-up to
national elections, which must be held by the end of the
year. A return to the large-scale orchestrated political
violence of the 1980 contest seems unlikely, as all of the
country's leading political figures appear genuinely to have
renounced such tactics. However, with the approach of what
promises to be Jamaica's closest and most intense electoral
struggle in decades, their ability to constrain grass-roots
activists and the country's politically affiliated criminal
gangs remains an open question. The risk: that isolated acts
of random violence in closely contested "swing" districts
might escalate and then spiral out of control.
End Summary and Analysis.

Shooting Incident
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2.(U) In the most serious incident to date, four persons
suffered minor wounds when shots were fired into a van
transporting supporters of the opposition Jamaica Labour
Party (JLP) to a rally in Swallowfield. The shooting
occurred in the hotly contested constituency of South East
St. Andrew as the vehicle passed through Woodford Park, a
known stronghold of the ruling People's National Party (PNP).
Conflicting accounts have emerged, with some reports
alleging that a policeman residing in the area first was
fired upon by persons in the vehicle, and then returned fire.
Police reportedly have detained two persons for questioning.

3.(U) Both the Member of Parliament for the constituency,
Minister of Education Maxine Henry-Wilson, and her outspoken
JLP opponent, Joan Gordon-Webley, have condemned the incident
and appealed for calm on all sides. JLP General Secretary
Karl Samuda has claimed the incident was politically
motivated, asserting in a letter to the Political Ombudsman,
Bishop Herro Blair, that it "reflects the determination of
the PNP to remain in power at any cost." For his part, PNP
General Secretary Donald Buchanan has maintained that "the
People's National Party is well on their way to victory, and
the public opinion polls indicate that we are opening up a
larger lead over the JLP. Why would we want to engage in any
form of political violence?"

Other Alleged Breaches of Political Code of Conduct
-------------- --------------

4.(U) Bishop Blair met with Samuda and other leading figures
from both parties on June 18 to discuss a number of other
recent alleged breaches of the Political Code of Conduct, to
include:

-- stoning of a vehicle carrying PNP supporters to a rally in
Junction, St. Elizabeth;

-- defacing and/or damaging of political billboards in the
South East St. Elizabeth and North Trelawny constituencies;

-- unlawful or provocative behavior associated with political
motorcades in several parishes.
Wehrli