JAMAICA: PNP FACES INTERNAL PROBLEMS/LACK OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000887

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2017
TAGS: ECON ENRG JM KCOR PGOV PINR PREL SOCI VE XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: PNP FACES INTERNAL PROBLEMS/LACK OF
ENTHUSIASM

REF: A. KINGSTON 186

B. KINGSTON 434

C. 06 KINGSTON 1579

D. KINGSTON 0089

E. KINGSTON 0215

F. KINGSTON 0393

G. KINGSTON 0158

H. 06 KINGSTON 2021

Classified By: Ambassador Brenda LaGrange Johnson Reasons 1.5 (b) and (
d)


1. (SBU) Poloff recently met with longtime People's National
Party (PNP) activist and organizer Karen Cross to discuss
recent media reports of problems within the PNP which could
impact the outcome of the upcoming elections (due by October
2007). During the meeting, Cross confirmed that there is
still a strong cadre of Peter Phillips (Minister of National
Security) supporters who are unhappy with Prime Minister
Portia Simpson Miller's (PSM) handpicked candidates in some
constituencies. This, coupled with ongoing scandals (albeit
minor ones) appears to have dampened overall levels of
enthusiasm for the PNP. Cross also discussed PNP
working-level dissatisfaction with PSM's growing relationship
with Venezuela,s Hugo Chavez, the growing distance between
the U.S. and Jamaica, and possible cabinet changes should the
PNP win the general election.

PSM vs. Peter Phillips and Finding the "Right" Candidate
-------------- --------------

2 (C) PSM has spent the last year since her elevation to
leader of the PNP attempting to mend fences with her
strongest rival to leadership Peter Phillips. While publicly
PSM and Phillips appear to have no animosity, the same can
not be said for their supporters. In fact, several
constituencies are showing the strain. In Central
Manchester, PNP's candidate Vando Palmer was given an
ultimatum "to quit or be fired." Palmer claims he was being
"victimized" by Phillips' supporters. The PNP counters that
Palmer was given an ultimatum due to allegations of
wife-beating. In South East St. Elizabeth, PSM replaced the
popular MP Lenworth Blake with Norman Horne. PNP workers in
this constituency remain upset about Blake,s removal. In
South East St. Ann, Peter Bunting was rumored to be named as
the PNP candidate. Longtime party stalwarts from that
constituency believed he was an "outsider" who would not
represent their interests. PSM's rumored naming of Bunting
also stopped a scheduled four-way contest for the candidacy
originally scheduled for mid-April. Bunting was eventually
named as a PNP candidate - but for Central Manchester.
Instead of rescheduling the run-off between the four
presumptive candidates, however, PSM named a former Miss
World with no discernable political background (except for
her one-time marriage to a former Jamaican Labour Party (JLP)
member) as the PNP candidate. South East St. Ann
constituents remain unhappy. Cross noted that PSM is
determined to make sure that candidates for all
constituencies are loyal to her in order to avoid any
intra-party fight for leadership following the general
election (ref A).

Scandals and Lack of Enthusiasm Plague the PNP
-------------- -


3. (SBU) PSM,s tenure as Prime Minister has also been
plagued by numerous scandals (ref B). Most recently, the son
of the PNP candidate for East Central St. James was arrested
and charged for helping the notorious head of the "Stone
Crusher" gang attempt to elude the police. The PNP
candidate's son owned the alleged getaway vehicle and
reportedly fired at police during the ensuing chase. The
leader of the gang was killed, and the PNP quickly released
talking points that suggested the father and son are
estranged. Karl Samuda, General Secretary for the JLP stated
in a recent meeting that, in fact, the car was owned by the
PNP candidate himself. In North Central Clarendon, the PNP
candidate (Ralph Thomas) recently admitted on radio that he
is a Legal Permanent Resident (LPR) of the United States.
Cross stated categorically that this would not matter to the
average voter. She quickly added, however, that JLP
candidates have the same problem.


4. (C) More interestingly, Cross passed confidential reports
from the late April PNP National Executive Council that
report on the problems PNP organizers are having on the
ground. The report notes that the PNP Youth Organization has
not been effective "and in some instances non-existent."
Additionally, the PNP "enumeration" campaign has not been
going well according to PNP canvassers and Cross (NOTE: Both

political parties canvass their constituencies to identify
likely PNP or likely JLP supporters. The parties employ a
"1/20" system - 1 bus driver picks-up 20 previously
identified PNP or JLP supporters to take them to the polling
division. Obviously, a PNP driver would not pick-up a
probable JLP voter and vice-versa. END NOTE). Canvassers
have reported that enthusiasm for the PNP has ebbed in most
constituencies; however, the reasons do vary. For example,
in St. Andrew Southern, a high level of gun violence has
displaced some constituents who have moved to other parts of
the island, while in South Saint Catherine the wildly
unpopular Portmore Toll Road (which is used by commuters from
Portmore into Kingston daily) has turned the most loyal
supporters of the PNP against the party.

Hugo Chavez Not Impressing Working-Level PNP Members
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Poloff asked Cross whether Venezuelan leader Hugo
Chavez has impacted the PNP (refs C through G). Cross
reported that rank-and-file PNP members as well as PNP
organizers are "not happy" about Chavez' attempts to
influence either the outcome of the election or the PNP.
Cross noted that PSM has been "gullible" when it comes to
Chavez. She also noted that "the PNP decided to abandon
socialism a long time ago. We're a capitalist nation. But,
there are some senior PNP leaders who are still 'true
believers' and whisper in Portia's ear." Cross did not
identify who those "true believers" are. Cross did report,
however, at the last meeting between Chavez and PSM, Finance
Minister Omar Davies was present and "dressed down" Chavez
for his speech at the UN which attacked the U.S. and
President Bush. After that meeting, Cross reported that
Chavez has insisted he will only meet with PSM in private.

Jamaica and the U.S. - Friendly, but Chilly
--------------


6. (SBU) Cross lamented what she describes as a "chilling" of
Jamaica-U.S. relations over the last 18 years. She puts the
blame squarely on the shoulders of former Prime Minister P.J.
Patterson. Patterson, Cross claims, made a decision to "put
in" with CARICOM and angle Jamaica to be its strongest
member. Thus, he actively positioned Jamaica in opposition
to the U.S. in order to project Jamaica as a force that would
"stand-up" against the U.S. Cross noted that since that
time, the Embassy which, according to her, used to be "a
force" on the island for positive change has been
marginalized. Cross also lamented that one of the results
has been that Jamaica rarely votes with the U.S. in the UN.
Cross feels that this "chill" will take years to repair.

PNP Victory and Possible Cabinet Changes
--------------


7. (C) Omar Davies, current Minister of Finance, is not
expected to remain in that position should the PNP win the
general election. Cross (a longtime Davies supporter)
confirmed the rumor; however, Cross suggested that Davies
would stay in politics, but take a different cabinet
position. Peter Phillips, disliked by the
less-than-upstanding "comrades" of the PNP for his efforts to
root-out corruption will also likely stay on as Minister of
National Security. Despite those close to PSM who would like
to see him leave, Cross noted it would be "suicide" on PSM's
part to try to remove him. Phillip Paulwell, Minister of
Industry, Technology, Energy and Commerce, will stay in the
cabinet despite his rumored links to crime and corruption.
Cross noted that Paulwell is a trusted and loyal advisor to
PSM and refers to her as "his blue-eyed baby girl." Senator
Colin Campbell, who was moved from the Cabinet to the Senate
following his involvement in the Trafigura scandal, (ref H)
will remain in the Senate. Cross said that Campbell was
"always the first person PSM spoke with in the morning and
the last person she spoke with in the evening."

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) The PNP appears in disarray. PSM's insistence on
personal loyalty to her - not the PNP - has impacted the
choice of PNP candidates. PSM seems blissfully unaware that
her choices, while professing their admiration for her, may
very well cost the PNP numerous constituencies as well as the
general election. The much-lauded PNP campaign machine,
however, has yet to be unleashed on Jamaica. In the
meantime, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) under PNP
leadership has decided to address two issues popular with PNP
rank-and-file members: changing the constitution to remove
the Queen as head of State and replace her with a President

and decriminalizing marijuana for personal use. While the
promise to change the constitution has been floating around
for 15 years (and generally makes an appearance prior to an
election),decriminalization of marijuana is a relatively new
issue. PSM has surrounded herself with personally-loyal,
law-abiding-challenged individuals who stand to profit from
the decriminalization.


9. (C) While the election date has yet to be called, and most
Jamaicans believe that July is the month, Donald Buchanan (MP
and PNP General Secretary) may have committed the ultimate
political gaffe by speaking the truth. In response to
questions about whether there is enough time to debate and
pass the marijuana legalization bill and calls to debate
sector budgets before general elections are called, Buchanan
responded, "We still have another four months to go and there
are no signs that I have seen which would indicate anything
that would say we are going to truncate that period." Four
months from now, the Parliament must be dissolved in
accordance with the constitution which states that Parliament
can only sit for a maximum of five years.


10. (C) If the PNP can pass marijuana legalization and get an
agreement with the JLP on changing the constitution, the PNP
faithful may put aside their displeasure with the scandals,
the lackluster PNP candidates, and the sense that after 18
years in power, the PNP has accomplished very little - other
than escalating crime rates, crumbling infrastructure, and
rampant corruption. Of course, if marijuana is
decriminalized prior to the election, the PNP may need to
offer brownies or other "munchies" to ensure their party
faithful actually show up at the polls.
JOHNSON