JAMAICA: MINISTRY OF NATIONAL SECURITY REMAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000771

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR BUDDEN; INL/LP FOR BOZZOLO, BROWN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017
TAGS: SNAR PREL PGOV JM
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: MINISTRY OF NATIONAL SECURITY REMAINS
WORRIED ABOUT ELECTION VIOLENCE

REF: KINGSTON 637

Classified By: DCM James T. Heg for reasons 1.5 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: Despite the contrary view provided by the
Jamaican Commissioner of Elections, (reftel),the Ministry of
National Security remains very worried about violence prior
to and on election day during the upcoming elections. High
level Ministry staff have concluded that as both the current
Prime Minister and the opposition leader have everything to
lose, they will use all means at their disposal, including
violence, to come out on top. End Summary


2. (C) In a recent meeting with the NAS Director, the
Minister of National Security's Special Advisor, Major
Vincent (Dave) Anderson, shared his concerns about political
violence erupting not only in the run-up to the next election
but also possibly on election day itself. In Anderson's
opinion, if she loses the election, Prime Minister Portia
Simpson Miller would immediately lose control of the People's
National Party (PNP) likely paving the way for the current
Minister of National Security to take over. Furthermore,
given Golding's age (60),if he does not lead the Jamaica
Labor Party (JLP) to victory at a time when many see the
ruling party as vulnerable, Anderson opined that "Golding
would be finished in politics." Because the leaders of both
parties have everything to lose, Anderson believes that both
might be tempted to use "every means" at their disposal,
including calling upon the dons to "keep the other's voters
at home."


3. (C) The British government too is "very worried" about
the possibility of a bloody campaign season. To try to quell
the violence, the High Commission, according to a UK
Political Officer, is using official visits, such as the
recent stop-over by the UK's Foreign Office's Minster of
State, Kim Howells, and the pending visit of Deputy Prime
Minister John Prescott, to deliver a soft message that "the
UK has every confidence that the upcoming polls will be
conducted in a professional manner." Once elections are
called, it is the intention of the UK High Commissioner to go
in hard and iterate that "the future ability of Her Majesty's
Government to work with the next Jamaican administration
greatly depends on the conduct of its followers prior to and
during the election." (Note: When appropriate, the U.S. is
delivering similar messages to both the ruling party and
opposition leadership.)
Johnson