JAMAICA: MINISTRY OF NATIONAL SECURITY REMAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000771 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR BUDDEN; INL/LP FOR BOZZOLO, BROWN E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017 TAGS: SNAR PREL PGOV JM SUBJECT: JAMAICA: MINISTRY OF NATIONAL SECURITY REMAINS WORRIED ABOUT ELECTION VIOLENCE REF: KINGSTON 637 Classified By: DCM James T. Heg for reasons 1.5 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Despite the contrary view provided by the Jamaican Commissioner of Elections, (reftel),the Ministry of National Security remains very worried about violence prior to and on election day during the upcoming elections. High level Ministry staff have concluded that as both the current Prime Minister and the opposition leader have everything to lose, they will use all means at their disposal, including violence, to come out on top. End Summary ¶2. (C) In a recent meeting with the NAS Director, the Minister of National Security's Special Advisor, Major Vincent (Dave) Anderson, shared his concerns about political violence erupting not only in the run-up to the next election but also possibly on election day itself. In Anderson's opinion, if she loses the election, Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller would immediately lose control of the People's National Party (PNP) likely paving the way for the current Minister of National Security to take over. Furthermore, given Golding's age (60),if he does not lead the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) to victory at a time when many see the ruling party as vulnerable, Anderson opined that "Golding would be finished in politics." Because the leaders of both parties have everything to lose, Anderson believes that both might be tempted to use "every means" at their disposal, including calling upon the dons to "keep the other's voters at home." ¶3. (C) The British government too is "very worried" about the possibility of a bloody campaign season. To try to quell the violence, the High Commission, according to a UK Political Officer, is using official visits, such as the recent stop-over by the UK's Foreign Office's Minster of State, Kim Howells, and the pending visit of Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott, to deliver a soft message that "the UK has every confidence that the upcoming polls will be conducted in a professional manner." Once elections are called, it is the intention of the UK High Commissioner to go in hard and iterate that "the future ability of Her Majesty's Government to work with the next Jamaican administration greatly depends on the conduct of its followers prior to and during the election." (Note: When appropriate, the U.S. is delivering similar messages to both the ruling party and opposition leadership.) Johnson