JAMAICA: FORMER PRIME MINISTER PATTERSON BELIEVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000133 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RANDALL BUDDEN, BRIAN NICHOLS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV EINV EIND ETRD ECON EWWT EFIN ECIN CARICOM, JM, XL SUBJECT: JAMAICA: FORMER PRIME MINISTER PATTERSON BELIEVES NATIONAL ELECTIONS NOT IMMINENT; PAINTS UPBEAT PICTURE OF INVESTMENT, ECONOMY Classified By: Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- 1.(C) The possibility of national elections in February is receding, in the estimate of former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson; his successor Portia Simpson Miller is more likely to wait to call them later in the year. In a private meeting with Ambassador, Patterson outlined his extensive investment consulting work and conveyed a generally upbeat assessment of Jamaica's economic prospects. End Summary. 2.(U) Ambassador (accompanied by Poloff) paid a courtesy call on former Prime Minister (PM) P.J. Patterson in his expansive office in the Life of Jamaica Building in downtown Kingston on the morning of January 25. Now retired from active politics, Patterson was succeeded as PM and Leader of the ruling People's National Party (PNP) by Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) in March, 2006. These days primarily an investment and financial consultant, he nevertheless remains closely connected with the inner circles of the PNP, among whose supporters he is a venerated senior figure. He exchanged views on a range of political and economic questions. Buoyant Investment Climate -------------- 3.(SBU) In response to Ambassador's inquiry, Patterson said he had been involved in a variety of consulting work over the last year, concentrating on regional and international rather than domestic markets. While he stood ready to do "anything Jamaica wants or needs," he was careful not to exert any "undue influence." He sought to encourage every opportunity for investment; much of his work was "pro bonum." He noted that the U.S. was the largest investor in a number of key areas in Jamaica, including expansion of the bauxite industry, the financial community, information and technology, and the transportation sector. His Government had worked hard to benefit from the Container Security Initiative (CSI),and Jamaica was grateful for it. Berthing demand at Kingston's container terminal had proven greater than anticipated, and operations were expanding rapidly. And of course, tourism and the cruise ship industry were thriving. Because of high fuel costs and environmental concerns, cruise ship operators these days were increasingly focusing on short voyages; he therefore believed Jamaica must develop more attractions for cruise ship visitors. There were possibilities for new cruise ship facilities in Port Royal and Montego Bay. 4.(SBU) Patterson said he remained a keen proponent of the Caribbean Single Market and Economy (CSME),and was "seeking to move to the next, more difficult step in regional integration." He also had assisted the British Commonwealth in establishing criteria for future membership, and recently had worked on behalf of the UN in the Congo. The OAS had invited him to deliver a lecture as part of its Distinguished Lecture Series. The Ambassador complimented Patterson on his recent article elucidating the game of cricket for the uninitiated, and said the Discovery Channel's recent feature on Jamaica, in which Patterson had been involved, had been extraordinary. New Stadium in Trelawny -------------- 5.(U) Patterson then noted that the new stadium in Trelawny Parish had been intended not only for cricket, but rather as a multi-purpose sports and entertainment facility. The Government now had decided to invite corporate groups to bid on leasing and managing the new stadium; he hoped it could be made available for off-season training by sports teams. The Ambassador offered to contact parties in the U.S. with expertise in designing and managing such projects; Patterson was appreciative. National Elections -------------- 6.(C) The Ambassador then noted that, despite recent widespread speculation that PSM would call national elections for February, only yesterday in private conversation the Under Secretary for Trade in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade (MFAFT) Amb. Lorne McDonnough had assured her this would not be the case. With characteristically smooth charm, Patterson observed wryly that, since retiring from active politics, he had "deliberately put myself in a position to hear what others are saying," rather than saying anything himself. Nevertheless, it seemed to him that "as the days go by, the possibility of elections in February is receding." He knew from experience that a PM had to "crank up the party organization" before announcing elections, rather than after; this he had not yet seen. As elections could not be held during the Cricket World Cup (CWC) series beginning in March, if PSM wanted them in February, as a practical matter she would have to make the announcement within the next two or three days; it seemed more likely she would wait until after CWC. 7.(C) In response to Poloff's inquiry regarding the agreement announced January 24 between the PNP and the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to revive the bipartisan committees of the parties and take other measures to avoid violence in the run-up to elections, Patterson observed that the PNP and JLP actually were only adopting and reaffirming arrangements and decisions which he and then-Opposition Leader Edward Seaga had put in place in the run-up to the 2002 elections. He was "glad to see the new candidates sign on," and also noted that the long-standing Code of Conduct for elections remained in force. (Note: Patterson did not offer any prediction as to whether the level of violence during the upcoming elections would be comparable to that experienced in 2002. End Note.) JOHNSON