JAMAICA: PRIME MINISTER ANNOUNCES ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001071

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2017
TAGS: ECON ENRG JM KCOR PGOV PINR PREL SOCI SNAR XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: PRIME MINISTER ANNOUNCES ELECTION
DATE...FINALLY!

REF: A. KINGSTON 705


B. KINGSTON 887

C. KINGSTON 1036

Classified By: Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Ending months of speculation and prophecizing,
Prime Minister (PM) Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) called
faithful People's National Party (PNP) members to rally in
Kingston on July 8 ostensibly to introduce the 60 PNP
candidates running for election. After hours of standing
and waiving PNP flags, PSM finally took the stage and,
after introducing each of the 60 candidates, proclaimed "I
am the seventh Prime Minister. We have seven national
heroes. As such, the date for Nomination Day will be
August 7." After dancing on the stage following that
announcement, PSM continued on to announce the date of the
General Election on August 27 - a date no one predicted.


"Nah Change Nuh Course" Replaced by "Moving Forward
Together" as PNP Campaign Theme
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2. (U) The PNP party faithful began arriving in downtown
Kingston at approximately 1:00pm to hear PSM announce the
election date. Throughout the late afternoon/evening, PNP
members were treated to speeches, music, food, beer, and
spliffs (marijuana cigarettes). Media and PNP members
estimated the crowd size between 125,000 and 176,000;
however, police put the number between 100,000 and
120,000. Former PM P.J. Patterson (1992-2006) set the tone
for the upcoming election by highlighting the
accomplishment of PNP rule over the past 18 years. In
particular, he noted that the Government of Jamaica (GOJ)
under PNP rule had "removed the yoke and stranglehold" of
the International Monetary Fund (IMF),fixed roads, and
built up the national reserve. He asked Jamaicans to allow
the PNP to continue building on its past accomplishments by
electing the PNP once again to another five-year term.


3. (SBU) PSM took the stage at approximately 9:00 pm to
deliver a 90 minute speech which not only highlighted PNP
accomplishments, but also asked the Jamaican electorate to
return the PNP to power - and give PSM her own mandate - so
Jamaica could continue to "move forward together." This
marked a change from the previous PNP slogan of "Nah Change
Nuh Course" which has been widely lampooned by the
opposition Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) and used in their
election advertisements successfully. PSM returned to the
promises she made during the recent budget debate (ref A),
including the need to increase early childhood education,
to protect and develop agriculture - particularly, the
sugar industry, and to reduce crime and corruption. The
only specific she offered, however, was a promise to
increase the number of police officers by 2,000. As with
the budget debate, PSM was long on promises of "goodies"
for Jamaicans, but short on specifics of how to accomplish
her goals and, more importantly, how to pay for them.


4. (U) PSM also spoke emphatically about the need to have
a violence-free election. In particular, she pleaded with
party members to "not be tempted" into violence. Stating
again and again that "the PNP is the party of peace and
love. Portia's about peace and love," PSM asked her
supporters to not engage in any violence - even if they are
provoked by members of the JLP. She reiterated this
message one last time at the end of the rally as party
members were heading home by reminding them that "if you
are provoked, call the police."


5. (U) Finally, PSM announced that the PNP will cease all
campaign activities beginning July 31 through August 6.
August 1 is Emancipation Day and August 6 is Independence
Day. PSM called upon all Jamaicans to forget all party
affiliation and join with each other that week as
Jamaicans. It is doubtful the JLP will heed that call.



Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) Reacts to Announcement
-------------- --------------


5. (U) Opposition Leader Bruce Golding welcomed the
announcement of the election date, but questioned the
length of time (nearly one month) between the announcement
and Nomination Day. Golding noted that there was "no
precedent" for an extended campaign period in Jamaica. He
suggested that the PNP is still "afraid" of not winning the

election, but was under enormous public pressure to set the
date; consequently, PSM attempted to lengthen the campaign
period to try and shore up support throughout the island.
Overall, however, JLP members were happy with the
announcement as they jumped up and down, hugged each other,
and started shouting "Bruce" shortly after the date was
announced. The JLP is expected to release their election
manifesto this week in preparation for the election.


Comment:
--------------


6. (C) Both major political parties are well-accomplished
at busing people in from all over the island for mass
rallies. This rally, however, was strangely different.
The crowd seemed tired and unenthusiastic. In fact, as
cameras focused on members of the crowd, there were few
smiles, looks of utter disinterest, and protracted yawns.
While there were numerous party members waiving flags, the
crowd only seemed to perk up when the music was turned up.
PSM also appeared less enthusiastic and her much famed
charisma was lacking (this was noticed by the press as
well). She appeared fatigued and delivered her remarks as
if she were reading a technical manual and not as the
leader of the PNP calling the party faithful to arms. Her
constant reiteration of "moving forward together" seemed
designed to remove "nah change nuh course" from the
political lexicon as the JLP has successfully used that
phrase in their campaign ads juxtaposed against the laundry
list of what the PNP, according to the JLP, has actually
accomplished: deteriorating roads, a three-fold increase in
crime, a sky-rocketing national debt, etc. The PNP has
also faced difficulty with fielding candidates that rank
and file PNP members find acceptable (ref B).
Acknowledging this, PSM admonished the crowd with "A vote
for the PNP candidate in the constituency is a vote for
Portia." Finally, after the date was announced, the PNP
faithful immediately started moving towards the exits -
despite PSM's plea to stay for a few more announcements.
The mass exodus while PSM was still speaking was truly
strange.


7. (C) Patterson's list of accomplishments can only be
described as baffling. While the removal of the IMF from
Jamaica was seen as a victory for national sovereignty,
sourcing funds from Wall Street - with attendant high
interest rates - will certainly lead to repayment
difficulties in the long term. Roads, too, are less of a
PNP accomplishment than a shining example of GOJ ineptitude
(remember the 2002 campaign slogan: "Pot Hole Free by
2003" - not so much). The much-lauded "Highway 2000"
project has resulted in the building of only two segments
in 7 years with little to no progress in connecting the
entire island. And while the GOJ constantly points to this
project as an example of infrastructure improvement, they
fail to mention the deteriorating road conditions
throughout the island - including rural and intracity
roads, some of which were washed away during last year's
rainy season and have yet to be rebuilt. Finally, the
increase in the Net International Reserves (NIR) has been
accomplished largely by the success of the tourist sector
as well as remittances. Both are largely outside of the
control of the GOJ. What the PNP has consistently failed
to mention is that despite the increase in NIR, the
national debt currently hovers at 132 percent of the GDP -
a figure most experts agree is outrageously high.


8. (C) The choice for election date - and the long wait to
get there - is equally baffling. Golding may well be
correct in his assessment that the PNP is afraid they will
lose the election, but needed to set a date. The long wait
will give the PNP time to do more ground-level campaigning
constituency by constituency. PSM argued that the long
wait was to allow Parliament to enact a specific bill which
criminalizes open voting. Open voting occurs when a voter
shows his/her ballot (before sealing it) to the party
representatives in the polling division. The practice has
been utilized as a way for individual voters to protect
themselves from retribution from a local party boss. By
showing the ballot, they can prove that they did vote for
the "correct" party.


9. (C) Golding's visible annoyance at the unexpectedly
late August election date may reflect concern that the long
campaign period may stretch his party's finances. He told
the UK High Commissioner last week that he worried his
party might run out of money if the election were not
called soon.


10. (C) A more magical explanation may involve the
much-heralded number seven. The election date was
originally anticipated to be called on July 7 (07/07/07) -
a magical number in numerology (a belief PSM adheres to).
Once that date was ruled out, the date of 07/27/07 was
widely speculated. August 27 seems oddly out of place -
and the long wait to get there even odder. However,
between the July 8 announcement and the August 27 date,
seven weeks will have passed. Thus, PSM will Nominate on
the seventh day, wait seven weeks between announcing the
election and holding the election, and hold the election on
the 27. Not being an expert in numerology and other
superstitious beliefs, poloff can only speculate that the
choice of dates and the waiting period is indeed "special."


11. (C) More interesting, however, is the fact that the
elections will occur shortly after the start of the new
school year. One of the JLP's primary campaign promises is
to remove all school fees in order to make sure all
Jamaicans children are able to attend (ref C). That
campaign promise may well weigh heavily on the minds of
voters as they cast their ballot - and review the
expenditures they just made to put their children in
school.
JOHNSON