JAMAICA: JLP'S GENERAL SECRETARY SPEAKS FRANKLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001036

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/CAR (RBUDDEN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2017
TAGS: ECON ENRG JM KCOR PGOV PINR PREL SOCI VE XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: JLP'S GENERAL SECRETARY SPEAKS FRANKLY
ABOUT JAMAICA/ELECTIONS


Classified By: Ambassador Brenda L. Johnson for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) Deputy Director for WHA/CAR Karen Williams, DCM, and
poloff recently met with Karl Samuda - MP and General
Secretary for the Jamaican Labour Party (JLP). Samuda spoke

SIPDIS
frankly about the state of Jamaica and proposed changes to
the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) should the JLP win. He also
openly - and optimistically - spoke about the prospects of a
JLP victory in the upcoming elections. Samuda is a longtime
political player who has consistently won his constituency -
both as a member of the JLP and as a member of the People's
National Party (PNP). Samuda is also one of the last of the
"old guard" party members whose experience in Jamaican
politics has been tempered by both his age and his desire to
leave active political life with a positive legacy.


"We've Bred a Generation of Beggars"
--------------


2. (C) Samuda pulled no punches when he described the current
state of Jamaican social, economic, and political life under
18 years of PNP rule. Jamaicans, he stated, are "begging
their way through life." Laying the blame for the
development of a dependent culture squarely on the PNP,
Samuda identified the decay of Jamaican society as the result
of the introduction of socialism to Jamaica under the PNP.
Under socialism, he argued, Jamaicans developed a sense that
"the state owes you something." Samuda declared that the PNP
is still full of "unrepentant socialists" who are attempting
to move the GOJ closer to Venezuela and Hugo Chavez. This
move, he argued, is still largely "stealth" as the GOJ cannot
show "overt ideological similarities with Venezuela" nor can
they show they want to "become more socialist" as Samuda
predicted that would cause a "massive financial flight from
Jamaica." Instead, Samuda stated that Chavez will try to
"creep in" with less of a revolution and more of a gradual,
subtle change back to socialism. Samuda stated he "had no
doubt that Hugo Chavez will drop U.S. dollars into Jamaica to
help PNP win the election" further noting (forcefully) "that
man is a communist!"


Crime and Corruption: "No Quick Fix"
--------------


3. (C) Should the JLP win the upcoming elections, Samuda
stated that curbing crime and good governance would be a top
priority stating simply "break the law, go to jail." Under a
JLP-led government, Samuda promised a greater collaboration
with both the U.S. and the UK in tackling crime, drug
trafficking, and corruption. He also stated the JLP would:
work to reduce the time between the criminal act and ultimate
punishment (NOTE: Jamaican courts are notoriously
over-burdened with cases taking years to make their way
through the judicial process. END NOTE); provide greater
resources dedicated to equipment upgrades and training for
law enforcement officers; engender greater involvement of the
island's security forces; strengthen the witness protection
program; target the heads of the top criminal organizations;
and "hang people" (NOTE: Jamaican law provides for execution
by hanging for certain offenses; however, it was last
utilized on February 18, 1988. END NOTE). Samuda conceded
that these changes would not happen quickly. "We need to
restore law, a sense of morality" which, according to Samuda,
may take years. Additionally, Samuda agreed that corruption
has become endemic throughout the GOJ and the island, but
stated that the JLP's plan "can't work if you make exceptions
because your friends are involved." Samuda promised that JLP
members would be asked whether they "are on the side of law
or the side of compromise?" When pressed further about
ridding the JLP of members who are either corrupt or
connected to criminal enterprises, Samuda stated "Any JLP MP
involved in crime or corruption are out!" He quickly added a
caveat, however, stating that any offense must be provable in
a court of law. Hence, the "Caesar's Wife" rule for
appearance of impropriety has been ruled out for the JLP.


Focusing on Education and Business
--------------


4. (C) Samuda outlined the two major campaign issues for the
JLP: education and business. The JLP is promising the
removal of all school fees. Samuda noted that this can be
paid for by reducing interest charges on domestic debt by 1
percent - a tactic Samuda claims was used by the PNP to fund
Cricket World Cup (NOTE: According to contacts at the
Ministry of Finance, the PNP funded Cricket World Cup through
a combination of grants and loans. END NOTE). Samuda stated

that a reduction of one percent would result in approximately
USD 46 million in savings. (COMMENT: Reducing the interest
charge cannot occur by fiat. Instead, the JLP would need to
create a positive environment that would cause the Central
Bank to reduce interest rates. END COMMENT). Beyond
abolishing school fees, Samuda is less clear about education
reform. The JLP has made frequent statements about the need
to professionalize teachers, stop the flight of
highly-skilled teachers to other nations, and graduate
students who are able to compete in the job market. Details
of how to accomplish this, however, have not been publicized.
Samuda was also unable to provide details beyond
acknowledging a need to improve education.


5. (C) On changes to the business community/climate, Samuda
was much clearer. Businessmen, Samuda argued, are
uncomfortable with the idea of another PNP government. The
PNP, according to Samuda, believes that businessmen are
corrupt; therefore, the PNP weighs down the business
community with more and more rules and regulations to "keep
them from cheating people." The JLP, Samuda stated, believes
the opposite: businessmen are basically honest and should
not be subject to overly burdensome regulations. While
noting that the JLP will "have severe consequences for those
(businessmen) who violate the law," Samuda stated the JLP
will loosen the regulatory environment. Samuda specifically
mentioned the need to reduce duties and reduce the amount of
time (and number of offices) any businessmen must pay and
visit in order to have a simple exchange (e.g., to sell
property can take years. Samuda proposes to mandate that all
such exchanges take place within a 90 day period). Samuda
also lamented that the GOJ presides over only about 60
percent of the economy at present. In addition to criminal
activities (such as drug trafficking),Jamaica has a highly
developed informal economy of small merchants and traders who
do not pay taxes on their income. He reported that the JLP
is undergoing an internal debate on whether or not a
consumption tax should replace the current income tax in
order to capture a broader spectrum of the economy. On
CARICOM, Samuda stated "we don't see introducing a common
economy" under a JLP government; however, the JLP supports
working together as a block on other issues such as trade.
Samuda also stated that the JLP plans to convert more arable
land to production proclaiming "we could become the bread
basket of the Caribbean."


Electioneering
--------------


6. (C) Samuda is optimistic about the upcoming general
elections. With the exception of Dr. Aubyn Bartlett (MP for
St. Andrew Eastern) who may not win re-election, Samuda
confirmed that internal JLP polling shows a swing of 5-8
percent in most constituencies. Samuda conceded that part of
the JLP's upturn is a result of the PNP being in power for 18
years. National polls have consistently shown the PNP - and
Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller (PSM) - with a lead over
the JLP. Samuda noted that the polls are contradictory and,
in particular, Bill Johnson (the most well-known of the
pollsters) was originally brought to Jamaica to do internal
polling for the PNP. Samuda considers him nothing but a "PNP
PR vehicle" (NOTE: Samuda's comment is not off the mark.
Media has reported that Johnson routinely attends PNP
executive meetings to personally brief PNP leaders on the
status of their candidates throughout Jamaica). Samuda does
acknowledge that PSM is very popular - and Jamaicans are
attracted to popular people. According to Samuda, however,
what JLP leader Bruce Golding lacks in popularity will be
"picked-up with our groundwork and the popularity of
individual JLP candidates."

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Samuda is an affable, direct man who is genuinely
concerned about his "legacy" - both to the JLP and Jamaica.
Throughout the meeting, he continually referenced his
"advancing age" and his belief that this election represents
his "last chance" to make a difference. His distaste for the
PNP was also palpable. He strongly believes that Jamaica -
under PNP leadership - has created a society of destitutes,
criminals, and beggars. The JLP has campaigned on a motto of
"Time for a Change" and, so far, those four words seem to
have resonated with a sizable chunk of the population. The
JLP has also benefited from the PNP's scandals and
miscalculations. The PNP was not able to finalize all 60 of
their candidates until June 24 as scandal and unpopularity
seemed to result in a new bad headline for them every other
day. Ultimately, the JLP may win this election based solely

on their campaign slogan as reports from the constituencies
(including reports from PNP organizers themselves) seem to
confirm that the PNP party faithful are not lining up as in
past elections. Rather than crossing party lines and voting
for the JLP, however, they may decide to simply stay home on
election day and wait for the change.


8. (C) Samuda reported that on the "first day of a JLP
government, we will undertake a total audit of every ministry
including the number of people who work there, the budget,
etc..." He noted they will face a struggle with the unions.
(NOTE: That, in itself, highlights how far the JLP has moved
from its roots - as merely an arm of several powerful trade
unions. END NOTE). The review of all ministries under a JLP
victory will pose a challenge for Post. With the PNP in
power for 18 years, long-standing relationships with valuable
government contacts have blossomed. These include contacts
at the Permanent Secretary level. Although civil servants
(and, theoretically, removed from party politics),they have
worked under the same government for 18 years. While the JLP
may have difficulty in removing individuals altogether, they
in all likelihood will undertake a major government shuffle
in an attempt to remove any bureaucrats they believe (rightly
or wrongly) sympathize with the PNP.
JOHNSON