JAMAICA: "SHADOW" MINISTER FOR NATIONAL SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 001012 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR INL/LP KBROWN, NBOZZOLO E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017 TAGS: SNAR PREL JM SUBJECT: JAMAICA: "SHADOW" MINISTER FOR NATIONAL SECURITY CONFIDENT OPPOSITION PARTY WILL WIN NEXT ELECTION Classified By: ChargQ d'Affairs a.i. James T. Heg for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: NAS Director met with Derrick Smith, Shadow Minister for National Security, on June 26. Smith was confident that the opposition JLP party would win the next election. He expressed the JLP's disappointment that the U.S. has not come out in favor of a JLP administration, levied criticism at the current Minister of National Security for poor resource management, called for reform of the Jamaica Constabulary Force, and expressed skepticism regarding the need for international extradition. End Summary Election Projection ¶2. (C) Smith anticipates that the election will occur on August 7, in the "feel good" period just after the Jamaican Independence and Emancipation Day holidays. Smith agreed that if the election swings the JLP's way, it will be because the ruling PNP lost, not because the JLP won. (Comment: There is widespread speculation about when the elections will be called, even Smith admitted that his supposition is based on a feeling, the JLP is as in the dark as the rest of the country as to the actual election date.) ¶3. (C) Smith acknowledged that the "Portia factor," the populist appeal of the current Prime Minister, would be hard to beat, but stated that after more than 18 years with the PNP in power, the country is ready for a change. Smith dismissed recent polls showing that the ruling party remains ahead of the opposition, stating that "such polls are just snapshot emotional reactions, and that on voting day people will be more deliberate." According to Smith, crime and violence are the hot button issues in Kingston and around Montego Bay, but that in the interior, the JLP is going after the PNP on lack of infrastructure and jobs. Smith predicted that the JLP will win between 32 and 35 seats. (Note: 31 seats constitutes a majority.) ¶3. (C) Smith agreed that the JLP played the "Trafigura card" too early. (Note: In October 2006, the local press was filled with accusations about the gift of USD 450,000 to the ruling party by the Dutch trading company, Trafigura. The JLP broke the scandal in October, because at that time, everyone anticipated a November election. As the months have passed, the scandal has seemingly faded from the voters' collective memory.) Without elaborating, Smith hinted that the JLP might have another scandal, "bigger than Trafigura" to drop, but that it was waiting until the elections were called. Even if true that there is another "Trafigura" out there, it is unclear what impact such a scandal would have. For even Smith agreed that Jamaican voters don't vote on corruption. If they did he said, "the whole PNP would have been voted out a long time ago." ¶3. (C) When questioned about the JLP's emotional and financial ability to sustain the campaign if the Prime Minister waits until later in the year to call the election, Smith was confident that the "friends of the JLP," an admittedly quiet group that is made up primarily of business leaders, would continue to provide monetary support. He seemed confident that the JLP remained a strong and unified party and that Bruce Golding had the stamina to keep campaigning. JLP Wants U.S. Backing ¶4. (C) Smith complained that the U.S. government as well as other "friendly" governments (read UK) have not spoken out about the next election. In his view, we should be sending subtle signals of U.S. disappointment with the ruling PNP. He commented that "Chavez hasn't been shy about showing his admiration for the current government." He also drew a contrast between the U.S. and UK's level of engagement with the opposition, the UK being quite engaged, and the U.S. being viewed by the JLP as "disinterested." (Comment: This may reflect that senior U.S. Embassy officers have met frequently with other JLP leaders but not often with Smith. End Comment). Smith also echoed wider CARICOM concerns that the region has "fallen off of the radar," and hoped that the recent CARICOM summit in Washington would focus some of the Bush Administration's attention on the Caribbean. Political Violence ¶5. (C) Smith stated that once the election is called, "things will get hot." He anticipates a low level of political violence, with just a handful of deaths. While he agreed that any level of violence was too much, in comparison with the early eighties, when more than 600 lost their lives, Smith considers the current climate as vastly improved. Critical of Current Minister of National Security ¶6. (C) Smith was very harsh in his criticism of the current Minister of National Security and Commissioner of Police's management of security resources. He cited the abysmal conditions that rank and file police officers must contend with: no handcuffs, inadequate provisioning of weapons, police stations that by any rights should be condemned, and a lack of bullet proof vests for patrolmen as examples of how they have squandered the moneys given to them. He declined to expand on the specifics of what he would do differently as minister, other than to say that "when he becomes Minister, he would clean house dismissing all of the contract staff at the Ministry and many of the civil servants." In a slap at the current Minister Peter Phillips who holds a Ph.D. in International Political Economy and Development, Smith highlighted his background as a businessman and manager, and commented "that as a minister you just need to be able to manage your people and pick good advisors, you don't need any special degrees." Smith is a marketing major. Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) -- Major Reform Needed ¶7. (C) Smith confirmed widely held suspicions that the Commissioner of Police, Lucius Thomas, and many of his senior officers are corrupt. (Note: According to Leslie Green, Assistant Commissioner of Police for Serious and Organized Crime, the Commissioner is currently under investigation by the Police Services Commission for corruption for ordering another senior officer to falsify official records.) Smith stated that the JLP supports the government's current plans for a strategic review of the JCF, and agreed that one more report without action to induce change was a waste of everyone's time and money. Concerned about Extradition ¶8. (C) From comments he made regarding the June 15, high-profile decision by the Supreme Court in Jamaica to permit the extradition of six individuals (Drug "King-Pin" Norris "Deedo" Nembhard, Former police corporal Herbert "Scarri" Henry, Vivian Dally, Robroy Williams his brother, and Luis Arias) to the United States, Smith does not appear to be a proponent of international extradition. When challenged about whether drug king pins would be prosecuted if they remained in Jamaica, Smith agreed that they would not, and that for the moment, seemingly despite his own personal reservations, it was better to remove the individuals to the United States. ¶9. (C) The DEA is currently investigating Christopher Coke, a known drug dealer, crime boss, and JLP supporter. Coke's indictment and arrest, even if it occurs before the next election, would not result in extradition to the United States until at least three or four years of legal challenges to the arrest and extradition had occurred. The current Minister of National Security has been the driving force behind the 2004 arrest and March 2007 extradition of Drug "King Pin" Leebert Ramcharan and Donovan Williams. Given his less that enthusiastic support of international extradition, if Smith were to become Minister of National Security, he would have to be carefully cultivated in order to ensure that he would not stand as a roadblock to the removal of major crime figures such as Coke. ¶10. (C) Comment: The outcome of the election may depend upon the extent to which three pervasive factors will or will not translate into votes: A) the personal popularity of the Prime Minister yielding votes for the PNP; B) the passion of the rank-and-file members which will impact on voter turnout; and C) the large number of "undecided" voters, who may or may not choose to go to the polls. Of course these are highly subjective factors and thus difficult to predict. End Comment. HEG