SCENESETTER FOR SENATOR KERRY VISIT TO RWANDA

UNCLAS KIGALI 001041 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS AF/C PLEASE PASS TO SENATOR KERRY'S STAFF E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL RW SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SENATOR KERRY VISIT TO RWANDA ¶1. (SBU) Post warmly welcomes the November 18-19 visit of Senator Kerry to Rwanda. Rwanda is a nation still struggling to overcome the legacy of the devastating 1994 genocide when upwards of one million Rwandans lost their lives, and the nation's infrastructure, economy and society were terribly damaged. Today, the Government is deeply committed to forging national unity through the reconciliation of wanda's ethnic groups, and has made great strides in restoring security and establishing the underpinnings for a developing democracy (see paras 8-12). The economy has been largely rebuilt and Rwanda is seeking to position itself as "the Singapore of Africa." Yet much remains to be done, and we are working with the Government of Rwanda (GOR) to finalize a Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Threshold Country Plan (see paras 13 to 16). ¶2. (SBU) Regionally, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) recently signed an agreement - with strong U.S. backing - to address the security threat posed by the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR - an armed group operating inside the DRC consisting of the remnants of the former Armed Forces of Rwanda and the Interahamwe militias). Additionally, Rwanda has become an mportant player in peacekeeping operations in Darfur and elsewhere. Your visit coincides with the rotation of two 538-person Rwandan battalions to Darfur with the U.S. providing the airlift capacity. Finally, the United States is the largest bilateral aid donor operating in Rwanda, with almost $175 million in assistance in FY07. ¶3. (SBU) Your meeting with President Kagame provides an opportunity to welcome the recent DRC-Rwanda agreement on the FDLR and to thank him for Rwanda's contribution to the African Union/United Nations peacekeeping operation in Darfur and to express U.S. support for Rwanda's efforts at regional economic integration (Rwanda recently joined the East African Community). Your trip to Paul Farmer's Partner's In Health hospital in Rwinkwavu will express U.S. support for the program's integrated approach to community health. ¶4. (SBU) Regional Security: On November 9, the DRC and Rwanda signed an agreement on a common approach to end the threat to peace and stability in both countries and the Great Lakes region posed by "negative forces," especially the Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda that continues to operate in North and south Kivu provinces of eastern DRC. Tensions between the DRC and the GOR have also centered on renegade Congolese Rwandaphone General Laurant Nkunda who has not cooperated with the DRC in reintegrating his militia forces into the Congo's army. Successful 2006 elections in the DRC, however, have brought hope that Rwanda's large eastern neighbor will stabilize and there will increased scope for cooperation between the two governments. Uganda and Rwanda enjoy the most positive relations in years, and the simmering internal political problems in Burundi show signs of improvement. ¶5. (SBU) Regional Security: Tripartite Plus: In 2004, the USG facilitated the formation of the Tripartite forum for Rwanda, Uganda, and the DRC (with Burundi added in 2006) to discuss regional security issues. The most recent meetings were held in Bujumbura in June and in Kampala in September. A meeting of the Chiefs of Defense Staff of the four nations took place at the end of August in Kigali, and in Lubumbashi in October. Both considered regional security approaches to "negative forces." In addition to the Tripartite Plus meetings, the Tripartite Fusion Cell (TFC) continues operations in Kisangani, DRC, with the primary function of sharing information on the foreign-armed groups in eastern Congo. ¶6. (SBU) AU/UN Mission in Darfur: The Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF),one of the most competent and professional militaries in sub-Saharan Africa, currently has four battalions deployed in Darfur, to be attached to the African Union Mission/United Nations Hybrid Operation (UNAMID). The USG has been providing logistical and training support for the Rwandan contribution to peacekeeping efforts in Sudan since initial deployment in August 2004. The U.S. Air Force and US-funded contract airlines have provided transport for nearly all troop deployments. American contractors under the ACOTA program (Rwanda became a full ACOTA partner in June, 2006) have conducted training for twelve battalions in preparation for the Darfur deployments. As noted above, your visit coincides with the rotation of two 538-person battalions. We provided transportation in October for a new 800-person AU/UNAMID hybrid battalion and rotated a 680-person battalion. ¶7. (SBU) Global Health: Rwanda is one of 15 "focus countries" under the PEPFAR program. The national HIV prevalence rate is approximately 3.1 percent (3.6 percent for women, 2.3 percent for men). A 2005 survey suggests that women are contracting HIV/AIDS at a younger age than men, and that for both sexes prevalence in urban areas is approximately three times higher than in rural areas. By the end of FY 2008, the PEPFAR program in Rwanda will provide at least 50,000 persons with anti-retrovial treatment (ART), prevent 158,000 new HIV infections, and provide care and support to 250,000 persons affected by HIV/AIDS, including orphans and vulnerable children. FY07 PEPFAR funding for Rwanda was approximately USD 104 million. FY08 levels are expected to be nearly USD 124 million. In June 2007, Rwanda hosted the yearly PEPFAR conference and garnered high praise for its energy and initiative in its HIV/AIDS programming. ¶8. (SBU) In addition, Rwanda is a phase II country for the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI). This program works to dramatically reduce the incidence of malaria through new treatments, indoor residual spraying, home-based management of fever in children and increased bed-net use. PMI funding for the first year of the program is USD 20 million and we anticipate $17 million in FY08. The Mission also implements successful programs in child survival, maternal and child health, reproductive health and family planning. These programs have annual budgets of approximately USD 8 million. ¶9. (SBU) Domestic Political Issues: In 2003, President Kagame was elected to a seven-year term with 95 percent of the vote; members of Parliament were elected to five year terms in the same year. Both elections were peaceful, but marred by irregularities. The next legislative elections will be held in 2008, with presidential elections following in 2010. Although constitutional and regulatory restrictions on political party operations remain in place, and use of broadly-worded criminal statutes sanctioning "divisionism" and "genocide ideology" concern the human rights community, a June 1 law allows parties to organize down to the lowest administrative level. As a result, Rwanda's political parties report renewed interest among average Rwandans in politics. Other human rights concerns include lingering restrictions on a free press, a judicial system still hampered by capacity limitations, and a developing civil society that must satisfy extensive licensing requirements. Pending legislation appears to loosen many restrictions on civil society, and to a lesser degree on the press; their final form will be determined in the course of the next several months. ¶10. (SBU) Press Freedom: Press freedom remains the subject of much debate and action in Rwanda. While senior GOR officials recognize the importance of a free, effective free press to the development of Rwanda's democracy and to international perceptions of the country, there have been reports of harassment, occasional run-ins with the police and other government authorities, and jailing and prosecution of several journalists. Most observers consider the press freer than it was two or three years ago, and independent newspapers regularly publish articles critical of senior government officials and institutions and the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front without government sanction (two have recently suspended publication temporarily to protest what they consider to be harsh government criticism). Local journalists, who do admit to self-censoring on occasion, often confess that their over-riding concern is the day-to-day economic obstacles to making journalism profitable. ¶11. (SBU) Justice and the Genocide: Over 800,000 suspected "genocidaires" (those who participated in the 1994 genocide) are the subject of judicial inquiry by the "gacaca courts," a traditional system modernized and expanded by the GOR. Over 90 percent of the pending cases had been adjudicated by approximately 3000 gacaca courts by November of this year. The gacaca service is optimistic it can finish all cases by the end of this year or the beginning of 2008. The GOR in March lessened sentences in the gacaca system. This summer the prison population stabilized at about 90,000 prisoners when the GOR decreed that gacaca prisoners would serve their suspended and community service sentences first, and return to prison at a later date. Since then, the prison population has diminished, alleviating crowded and unsustainable conditions, as the government began releasing prisoners previously convicted. While the most serious genocide offenders will continue to be judged by the regular courts, the gacaca court represent the principal attempt by the GOR to achieve justice and reconciliation -- a difficult policy balance -- given Rwanda's history of ethnic animosities. ¶12. (SBU) Democracy and Governance Programs: USG programs focus on three areas: local government, civil society, and reconciliation. We are supporting decentralized governance through an innovative wrap-around program in which health and governance objectives combine to ensure local management and delivery of high quality health services. The program is intended to demonstrate ability for local governments to manage and fund public services. We also support a series of smaller projects related to reconciliation, such as activities in women's micro-finance, women's legal rights, land policy and law, and youth trauma therapy. ¶13. (SBU) Economic Development: Rwanda's main development challenges remain its small economy, relative isolation, poor infrastructure, energy insecurity, and poorly developed human capital. Rwanda's economy remains largely dependent upon foreign aid, while its population remains overwhelmingly rural with over 85 percent of families earning a living through subsistence agriculture and 56.9 percent of households living below the poverty line of 250 Rwandan francs a day (about $0.45). However, Rwanda has achieved an average GDP growth rate of 6 percent over the past six years and increased the total value of exports by 23 percent in ¶2005. The government has established important policy benchmarks for overhauling the economy, and establishing Rwanda as a regional crossroads bridging the Francophone west and Anglophone east. It has achieved major improvements in the areas of tax collection, banking, trade agreements, anti-corruption, and fiscal policy. It has improved road conditions throughout the country, and maintained a low corruption rate relative to neighboring countries. ¶14. (SBU) Specialty Coffee: In 2001, the country produced only low-grade commercial quality beans for export despite coffee being the traditional number one export earner. Over the past six years, the USG has invested an estimated USD 10 million in promoting and developing the Rwandan coffee industry, building and rehabilitating coffee washing station, training farmers and "cuppers" (coffee tasters),organizing cooperatives, encouraging banks to lend to Rwandan investors to build coffee washing stations, and improving rural infrastructure. Today, Rwandan coffee has become known as one of the "best of the best" coffees in the world. Rwanda exported 1,100 tons of high quality specialty coffee in 2005, and 2,000 tons in 2006. While still a small proportion of overall coffee exports, these crops earn top prices for the coffee growers, and have resulted in better health care, education, and housing in coffee farming communities. In 2006, Starbucks launched a promotional campaign featuring the best of Rwandan coffee, a program seen by an estimated 19 million customers per week in over 5,000 Starbucks retail stores throughout the U.S. ¶15. (SBU) Poverty Reduction: The government has made efforts, with measurable results, to reduce poverty and to improve access to health care and education, despite its severely limited resources. Under its national policy of universal primary education, the GOR provides free primary education to all children. A joint GOR-donor task force is focusing on improvement of girls' education. The GOR is also attempting to improve access to health care through greater decentralization to ensure inadequate health services at the local level. In addition, it has implemented plans for the prevention, protection, and reintegration of street children (currently 7,000 out of 4.2 million children),including vocational training to promote self-reliance through development of income-generating skills. Rwanda is completing its Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) at the end of 2007. Rwanda had completed the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) debt relief initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative by the end of 2006. Completion of these two debt initiatives significantly reduced its overall debt. Anticipated GDP growth for the immediate future should continue at 5-6 percent, while inflation may rise given high energy costs and large donor inflows. Rwanda does face challenges to food security from cyclic rainfall shortages. ¶16. (SBU) Millennium Challenge Corporation Country Threshold Program: Rwanda was selected in 2006 for the Threshold program. The GOR with assistance from the Mission is putting the finishing touches on a Threshold Country Plan intended to improve its scores on MCC's Ruling Justly basket of indicators. The Threshold program will focus on three main components: strengthening the judicial sector, aiding civic participation, and promoting civil rights and civil liberties. Rwanda has passed all three baskets of indicators (the others are Economic Freedom and Investing in People) in 2007, and so is theoretically eligible for full Compact negotiations. ARIETTI