SPLM SUGGESTS DELAY IN CONFERENCE WITH DPA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 000953 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV AU UN SU SUBJECT: SPLM SUGGESTS DELAY IN CONFERENCE WITH DPA NON-SIGNATORIES KHARTOUM 00000953 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: CDA A. Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) will most likely postpone the second and third phases of their conference in Southern Sudan because key leaders of the Darfur rebel movements have not agreed to attend. The first phase of the conference--focused on civil society groups, traditional leaders, and representatives of the Arab tribes--will proceed on June 18. Though welcoming UN and AU participation in the conference, First Vice President Salva Kiir and members of the SPLM Darfur Taskforce were positive but vague in their support for the United Nations and African Union to lead mediation efforts, during a meeting with the Darfur Partners Group in Khartoum. The French Ambassador claimed that Paris had pressured Abdulwahid al-Nur to be a constructive player in the political process, with no success. End summary. -------------- Darfur Partners Demarche Kiir -------------- ¶2. (C) Representatives of the Darfur Partners Group, including the United Nations (UN),African Union (AU), European Union (EU),European Commission (EC),U.S., UK, Norway, Germany, France, Canada, and the Netherlands, met with First Vice President Salva Kiir and members of the SPLM Taskforce for Darfur (TFD) on June 15 to discuss the upcoming conference in Southern Sudan. The Partners emphasized that the focus of the SPLM conference should be on facilitating common negotiating positions among the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) non-signatory factions. They expressed their concern that the first phase of the SPLM conference--focused on civil society groups, traditional leaders, and Arab tribes--risked detracting from the goal of preparing the non-signatories for negotiations and that several rebel leaders were not prepared to attend the conference in Southern Sudan. They suggested that the second and third phases of the SPLM conference be postponed by two weeks in order to de-link the first phase and to re-focus the SPLM's efforts. (Note: Please see para. 10 for the complete text of the talking points delivered by �00A;UN and AU representatives. End note.) ¶3. (C) Referencing the Tripoli Consensus, the UN and AU stated that both parties should be "involved thoroughly" in each component of the political process. While reiterating the UN and AU's support for the SPLM conference, they said that the UN and AU hoped to announce a venue for final talks by the end of July and begin negotiations in August. The ambassadors from the UK and the Netherlands voiced their support for the SPLM conference while underscoring the UN/AU "umbrella" for the Darfur political process and a "visible role and position for the UN and AU" at the conference in Southern Sudan. CDA commended the SPLM's leadership in help to end the suffering of the people of Darfur. He urged the SPLM to distinguish between "the good and the crucial" and to focus its efforts on the non-signatories. -------------- Focus Still on Rebel Factions -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Kiir, the first phase of the SPLM would not include the non-signatory representatives and would concentrate on assessing civil society and tribal leaders' views on the Darfur conflict. The SPLM would then communicate the priorities of these groups to the Darfur movements during phases two and three. He said that the focus, however, remained on preparing the rebel movements for negotiations. Reflecting on the SPLM's own history of division, he said that the movements must be united with a single negotiating position before the political process could continue. He said that the SPLM would not serve in a mediation role and repeated several times that it would leave negotiations to "whoever has the file." He did not specify that the UN and AU should fill this role. -------------- Phases Two, Three Likely Postponed -------------- ¶5. (C) Kiir acknowledged, however, that key rebel leaders had KHARTOUM 00000953 002.2 OF 004 rebuffed invitations to the Southern Sudan conference at present. He said that it was important for the conference to be inclusive and implied that the phases dealing with the non-signatories would be postponed until all factions could be represented. "On our side, if people don't come, we won't hold the meeting," said Kiir. "We need all these people, whether today, tomorrow, next week, or next year. We consider everyone to be important. Even someone carrying a gun in a bush, even one person, should not be ignored; he could become important tomorrow." ¶6. (C) Kiir said that he had spoken to Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) leader Abdulwahid al-Nur on June 13, who had two pre-conditions for his attendance: 1) Kiir come to Paris to speak to al-Nur directly, and 2) The SPLM declare its "clear support" for al-Nur. Kiir said that if al-Nur's security concerns about returning to Sudan were legitimate, Kiir would be happy to meet him during a one-day visit in the region but that offer was rejected. Kiir also said that he had met with rebel faction leader Ahmed Abdulshafi in Juba earlier on June 15, who had also refused to attend. Kiir did not have any indications that Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) leader Khalil Ibrahim would participate. "It has become clear that the leaders of the movements themselves are not ready," said Kiir. -------------- Need for Collective Pressure -------------- ¶7. (C) The UN representative suggested that the SPLM and the international community needed to "collectively work out some kind of timeline" rather than allowing the political process to languish. He encouraged the SPLM to consider a mid-July start date for the second and third phases of its conference and for the international community to exert "collective pressure" on the parties to participate. ¶8. (C) Kiir agreed that the rebel factions could not be allowed to delay but acknowledged the danger in setting unrealistic timelines, particularly as the international community was giving the movements conflicting signals. He also noted that many in Darfur believed that delaying the peace process until the arrival of UN forces would strengthen their hand. He said that both the SPLM and the international community needed to "do their homework" and press the non-signatories to join the process. TFD member Edward Lino noted the disconnect between the rebel factions in the field and their political leaders outside of Darfur. Highlighting the urgency of defusing the conflict, Lino also warned of the ramifiations of "60 percent" of Darfur's population remaining displaced in camps over the long term and the creation of a new generation of fighters that will carry on the war. -------------- French Role -------------- ¶9. (C) The French Ambassador said that her government had pressed al-Nur to be a constructive actor in the political process, with no success. "The intensity and pressure exerted on him have clearly increased since the formation of the new French Government," she said. "But unfortunately at this stage it has not been successful." She said that the June 25 ministerial-level meeting in Paris was not an attempt to involve the representatives of the rebel movements outside of the Tripoli Consensus but that it would focus on the "P-5, the G-8, and some others" to reinforce the importance of the UN/AU process, garner support for the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS),and "open up the perspective" on reconstruction and development in Darfur. -------------- Text of the UN/AU Talking Points -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The following is the text of the UN/AU talking points used in the meeting with Kiir: (Begin Text) Greetings from the Special Envoys. They reiterate their support for SPLM initiative and continuously highlight the important role that SPLM can play in the Darfur peace process given its experience and history. KHARTOUM 00000953 003.2 OF 004 We appreciate the cooperation we have had so far with the SPLM Task Force. Thank you for the meeting last Monday in Juba, we were positive about the progress that has been made in the planning of the conference. As the Special Envoys emphasized in their meeting with you in Juba on 9 May, we are particularly interested in capitalizing on the strength of the SPLM to bring together non-signatories and facilitate a common negotiating position. We continue to believe that the most important use of your expertise and efforts is a small political gathering of this constituency. After reviewing the programme of events, we remain concerned that the civil society component of the event is tied into the meeting with the non-signatories. Originally, we were under the impression that the two meetings would be held separately but would be designed to feed into one another. This would be the ideal format given the fact that some of the non-signatories are currently unprepared and unwilling to enter into discussions with civil society. We fear that this would detract from the focus of the meeting to bring the non-signatories together and may risk the success of the conference as a whole. We support the SPLM's initiative to involve civil society groups so that they can act as pressure groups on the non-signatories is an important element to exploit. We must ensure that their voices are channeled into the political process. We believe that this can be best achieved by having this meeting separate from the meeting with non-signatories. We believe that resources and capacity of the DDDC can be further utilized for this purpose and we will encourage the Preparatory Secretariat of the DDDC to work with the SPLM and other stakeholders towards this end. Separating the two meetings would also allow the non-signatories to further prepare their positions ahead of the meeting. As you know, there is a group currently in Asmara and another group that will soon be in Kenya, preparing the ground for common negotiating positions. Lessons from Abuja have proven that our ultimate objective is best served if we allow these groups to fully prepare themselves ahead of such meetings. Given these circumstances and the fact that the civil society are able to be mobilized to begin their proceedings next week, it would be advisable to postpone the non-signatory portion of the SPLM conference by a two weeks. As you know, we have been in contact with many of the non-signatory groups and have discussed the SPLM initiative with them. Despite our support of the SPLM conference, it is clear that at this moment few are prepared to take part, as they are still attempting to resolve internal issues. As Your Excellency will recall, the earlier discussions held with the Special Envoys emphasized the importance of an inclusive process. In this connection, we would appreciate receiving an update on those political leaders and non-signatory groups that you have been in touch with and have accepted to attend the SPLM conference. (We have indications that neither Khalil Ibrahim nor Abdul Wahid are intending to come.) As always, we are ready to assist in both utilizing our joint leverage on the non-signatories to encourage them to attend, as well as provide financial and logistical assistance to facilitate the meeting. In the finalized roadmap for the political process which was presented at the UN Security Council last week by Special Envoy Eliasson, and to the AU leadership by Dr. Salim Salim, the SPLM conference is listed as an essential step in the political process. We are counting very much on your success in order to facilitate the next steps. As you will recall from your meeting with the Special Envoys and the consensus from the meeting in Tripoli in April, it is crucial that the AU-UN is involved thoroughly in each step of the process. The international community supports this role and is interested in our full involvement in the SPLM conference. Furthermore, we would like to take this opportunity to inform you of what the Special Envoys envision for the next steps of the process. Following the SPLM conference, the pre-negotiation phase will begin. AU-UN consultations that are currently ongoing will be intensified in July in an effort to bring the positions of the parties closer together. We will have discussions on the key thematic issues as well KHARTOUM 00000953 004.2 OF 004 as on the format, venue and agenda of the renewed talks. On a separate but related track, we will conduct intensified consultations with civil society, IDP representatives, tribal leaders and others to ensure that their concerns are taken into consideration in the final negotiations. We hope to announce the venue for final talks in July and proceed with the start of negotiations in August. Thank you for your attention. (End Text) ¶11. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. FERNANDEZ