RIEK MACHAR CLAIMS PDF IS BEHIND MISSERIYA ATTACKS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002072 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: RIEK MACHAR CLAIMS PDF IS BEHIND MISSERIYA ATTACKS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Khartoum is trying to destabilize the Abyei region by organizing the Misseriya Arab Popular Defense Forces (PDF) to attack SPLA positions, claimed Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) Vice President Riek Machar. Machar claimed the Misseriya forces have been using vehicles with 12.7 mm gun mounts. Regarding the Darfur talks, Machar reported that the GoSS is pushing all Darfur rebels who remain in Juba to leave this week. Machar urged the USG to provide "food for peace" to rebel leader Minawi in order to motivate other rebels to sign the next agreement, and avoid further defections from Minawi's ranks. Regarding SPLM politics, Machar said reports that Abdel-Aziz el Helou could replace Pagan Amum as Secretary General of the SPLM are just rumors. On LRA negotiations, SIPDIS Machar said that LRA representatives had confirmed to him that Otti is dead. End Summary. PDF-SPLA Clashes -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During a courtesy call December 29, Government of Southern Sudan Vice President Riek Machar told visiting polchief that Khartoum is trying to destabilize the Abyei region in order to further militarize the area and avoid a political settlement regarding the borders of the oil region. Machar claimed that during three days of attacks, Misseriya Popular Defense Forces (PDF) mobilized by Khartoum had used vehicles with 12.7 mm gun mounts to attack SPLA positions. Due to the absence of GoSS President Salva Kiir, Machar had just finished chairing a three-hour security meeting to plan the SPLA response to the attacks. Machar said the SPLA would not initiate attacks but would certainly defend itself. He echoed statements made in the press by President Kiir, that the SPLA would do everything possible to facilitate the movement of Misseriya herders. "These attacks have nothing to do with the Misseriya herders," observed Machar. "Herders do not guard their cattle with vehicles and heavy weapons." Machar said the SPLA had maintained positions north of the Bahr al Arab but had moved south of those positions over the last two days. Darfur Rebel Talks and Arab Unification -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Waiting in the ante-room to see Machar were about a dozen Darfur rebels. Machar said he was disappointed that the Darfur Task Force had not achieved greater results. "Our attempts were not fully successful, they gave us the impression they would unite with other groups in the field but this did not happen." Machar said the exercise had cost the SPLM over a million USD and the GoSS would encourage the seventy rebels who remain in Juba to return to Darfur by the end of the week. He said the GoSS has no plans at this point to facilitate further talks amongst the Darfur rebel groups. Regarding the Darfurian Arabs who claim to have turned against Khartoum, Machar said he had just heard from his contacts in Darfur that several Arab rebel groups had united under the leadership of southern Rizeigat leader Hamati, under the banner of the United Front for Revolutionary Forces (UFRF). He said Abu Surra is the Secretary General of this group. Machar said he did not know how SIPDIS this would affect Hamati's alliance with Fur SLM leader Abdel Wahid al Nur. Machar observed that JEM and SLA/Unity are the most powerful forces on the ground right now in Darfur, but said this could change rapidly if SLA/Unity breaks apart. Machar said he had heard that Abdallah Yahyia had definitively broken away from the SLA/Unity leadership. Machar said the SPLM would consider supporting Darfur rebels militarily if they were united, "but they are not." Do Something for Minawi -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Machar urged the U.S. to "do something" for the rebels who have signed the Darfur Peace Agreement. "You are not assisting the groups you pushed to sign an agreement in Abuja - you have abandoned them," Machar observed. Machar predicted that there will be a chaotic situation in Darfur if all of Minawi's fighters abandon him, or if Minawi himself decides to abandon the DPA based on lack of implementation by the GNU and lack of support from the U.S. Machar urged the U.S. to again provide "food for peace" to Darfur signatories as it did last year, via the SPLM/GoSS. Machar said this would help stabilize Darfur in the year leading to elections, and would be a motivating sign to non-signatories that the international community will not abandon them if they sign an agreement with the GNU at the next round of talks. Machar predicted that there will be no peace in Darfur for another year if Minawi " goes back to Darfur." He said lack of progress in the Darfur peace process leading to the 2009 election would undermine the democratic transformation of Sudan and could contribute to the South seceding in 2011. KHARTOUM 00002072 002 OF 002 SPLM Leadership -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The SPLM will have a greater impact in Khartoum with the Ministers who have just been sworn in, said Machar. The focus of the SPLM over the next year will be unity and democratic transformation in Sudan, but the SPLM is not yet ready to commit to a partnership with the National Congress Party (NCP) in the 2009 elections. He predicted that the two parties would run on separate tickets in the elections but with an agreement to continue their partnership. Although Pagan Amum's presence in the GNU as Minister of Cabinet will increase the chances of unity, Machar observed that there are many members of the SPLM who are pro-unity, but said this could change if the SPLM does not increase its seats in parliament beyond 28% following the elections. Machar said the plan discussed in the SPLM politburo is that Pagan Amum will continue as Secretary General of the SPLM even while serving as GNU Minister of Cabinet, and denied reports that Abdel-Aziz al Helou would take over as Secretary General of the party. "These are rumors that are being SIPDIS spread by Khartoum," claimed Machar. LRA Issues -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Machar said he had recently met with LRA representatives on December 20 and again on Christmas eve but that he had not met with Kony. He said the representatives confirmed that Otti is dead. Machar said what is needed now is for Kony to confirm to the world that he is still for the peace process, and to return to negotiations so they may be concluded by February. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Machar was more focused on security issues than SPLM party politics, but did not seem overly concerned about the Misseriya-SPLA clashes along the border. He was clearly disappointed that his own efforts to unite Darfur groups did not achieve a greater result, and seemed tired of dealing with the portfolio and eager to delay his meeting with the remaining rebel representatives waiting outside his door. Machar was most animated when urging additional "food for peace" for DPA signatories, delivered via the south, as he clearly hopes to play a personal role in such a delivery if it occurs. POWERS