SPLM MINISTERS SWORN IN, PAGAN AMUM IS MINISTER OF CABINET

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002053 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KSCA OTRA EAID CDC SU SUBJECT: SPLM MINISTERS SWORN IN, PAGAN AMUM IS MINISTER OF CABINET AFFAIRS ¶1. (SBU) The GNU announced a cabinet reshuffle December 26 as part of a deal that ends the two-month long crisis provoked when the SPLM walked out of the government in mid-October 2007. The new ministers were sworn in December 27 at 11:30 a.m. local time, and were expected to take part in their first cabinet meeting later in the day. The most notable and unexpected assignment in the reshuffle brings SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum into the government as Minister of Cabinet Affairs. Amum is known to be a leading proponent of national unity within the SPLM, which the NCP hopes to benefit from in the lead-up to elections in 2009. As expected, Deng Alor becomes Minister of Foreign Affairs. The reshuffle confirms that SPLM wayward members have been sidelined, as Lam Akol, Telar Deng and Alieu Alieu will have no portfolios under this reshuffle. ¶2. (SBU) Following is the list of the new Cabinet appointments: NEW PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORS -------------- -- Dr. Mansour Khalid; -- William Ajak Deng. Ajak, a Bor Dinka from Garang's family, is a university professor not well known in Khartoum's political circles. -- Andrew Mackour. MINISTERS -------------- -- Pagan Amum, Minister for Cabinet Affairs; -- Deng Alor, Minister of Foreign Affairs; -- James Kok Rew, Minister of Foreign Trade. Kok was close to the late John Garang and former chairman of the Peace Commission in Southern Sudan. His nomination for this position has been criticized in some circles because he only has a high school education. -- Philip Ton Lek, Minister of Transport, Roads and Bridges; -- Kosti Manibe, Minister of Investment. The former Minister of Humanitarian Affairs, Manibe has been the mainstay among the SPLM's negotiators on the CPA's Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC). He is from Western Equatoria. -- Dr. Haroun Ton Lual, Minister of Humanitarian Affairs. A Catholic priest, he is a member of the Mellut Dinka tribe in Upper Nile State. He only recently joined the SPLM; he was reportedly given this position to satisfy the Dinka of the Upper Nile. -- Prof. George Boreng Niami, Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research. The former Minister of Foreign Trade is from Equatoria and is a leading figure in the SPLM. STATE MINISTERS -------------- -- Lual Achweil Luwal, State Minister at the Presidency of the Republic; -- Abbas Juma'a Ebeid Alla, State Minister of Interior; -- Wek Mamar Kual, State Minister of Justice. Wek is a brigadier in the SPLA; -- Abosh Ajok Ako, State Minister of Agriculture; Abosh is from Tong; he was a comrade and supporter of SPLA commander Kerubino Kuwanin, who was assassinated; -- Bol Marial Dot, State Minister of Industry; -- Ismail Khamees Jallab, State Minister of Animal Resources. RESHUFFLE HIGHLIGHTS TRIBAL POLITICS IN SOUTH -------------- ¶3. (U) A significant portion of the Khartoum press coverage of the reshuffle focuses on the various tribal affiliations of the new cabinet ministers. Members of the Dinka tribe, the predominant tribe in Southern Sudan, certainly receive the lion's share of the new appointments. This perceived imbalance will do nothing to redress dissatisfactions among minority tribes in the South at Dinka ascendancy. Tribal conflicts are one of the leading causes of political instability and violence in the South. ABYEI AND ELECTIONS LAW -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Aligo Manoa, leader of the SPLM caucus in the National Assembly, told emboffs there could be an interim agreement on Abyei before the three-year anniversary of the CPA on January 9, 2008. He said this would probably include a temporary administration, despite SPLM concerns that it violates the sequence stipulated in the CPA. (Note: The Abyei Protocol says the ABC report should first be accepted, then a border demarcated, and finally a temporary administration put in place based on the border outlined in the ABC report.) Manoa said the Presidency will address the Abyei issue over the next two weeks, with an interim compromise likely to be hammered out before January 9. Both Manoa and contacts from the NCP believe that the elections law will be passed in early January (septel) allowing preparations for the 2009 election to commence. KHARTOUM 00002053 002 OF 002 WHAT DOES PAGAN AMUM'S APPOINTMENT MEAN? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) There is considerable speculation among observers in Khartoum as to what the appointment of Pagan Amum as Minister for Cabinet Affairs will mean, and how his appointment will affect his current SPLM party leadership role. Northern observers speculate that the NCP hopes to draw on Amum's stated preference for unity in ¶2011. Southerners fear that the NCP may attempt to co-opt Amum, cut him off from SPLM membership in the South, or weaken the SPLM by burdening a key SPLM leader with administrative issues in Khartoum. A more positive reading is that the NCP wants to streamline cabinet decision-making by bringing key Southern leaders within the fold in Khartoum. ¶6. (SBU) Manoa claimed that the NCP wants Pagan Amum to be Minister of Cabinet Affairs in order to weaken the SPLM. He pointed out that although the NCP considers Amum to be pro-unity, originally Pagan Amum began his political activity as a member of "Anyanya-2," a southern separatist movement in Khartoum. Manoa also pointed out that there are others who could take over for Amum as Secretary General of the SPLM, such as Abdel-Aziz Helou, who recently returned from the U.S. ¶7. (SBU) NCP member Abdulla Idris, Co-Chair of the National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) who was Pagan Amum's law professor at the University of Khartoum, said Amum was chosen for his ministerial slot so that he would be more accessible to the GNU. With Amum in Khartoum rather than in Juba, he said decisions could be taken more quickly, particularly in view of his decisiveness. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) With the cabinet crisis behind them, the NCP and SPLM should be able to move forward on critical items such as the national electoral law and the census. The appointment of Amum as Minister of Cabinet Affairs now places the SPLM's two top leaders - GOSS President Kiir and Secretary General Amum - regularly in Khartoum, which could in fact streamline decision-making within the GNU. Moreover, by bringing the SPLM's leading advocate for national unity into the GNU during the run-up to the national elections, the NCP may hope to strengthen the chances for unity during a critical period. Amum is a mercurial figure, however, and not one to back down easily from conflict. Only a month ago Amum was ratcheting up the war of words and threatening a return to war. The NCP may be getting more than it bargained for. ¶9. (SBU) Although Foreign Minister Deng Alor is expected to be more sympathetic to U.S. interests than his predecessor, we do not expect him to have too much room for maneuver. While Alor may be able to facilitate some issues, he will still need to act in accordance with the wishes of President Bashir. Some observers point out that Alor is now placed in almost impossible position, sandwiched between the international community on one side and the NCP on the other. He will be hard-pressed to please both, and risks being sidelined if he strays far from Bashir's policy. NCP hardliners Ali Karti and Mutrif Siddiq retain their portfolios in the Ministry. POWERS