PAGAN AMUM: ABYEI IN EXCHANGE FOR NCP/SPLM UNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002026

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: PAGAN AMUM: ABYEI IN EXCHANGE FOR NCP/SPLM UNITY
IN 2009 ELECTION

REF: A. KHARTOUM 2000

B. KHARTOUM 2020

Classified By: CDA Roberto Powers, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The NCP has made a strategic decision to meet
all SPLM demands and ultimately will have to accept the ABC
report on Abyei if it wants a partnership with the SPLM in
the 2009 election, according to SPLM Secretary General Pagan
Amum. Although SPLM Ministers will rejoin the Government of
National Unity following a swearing-in ceremony tentatively
planned for December 27, at their meeting on December 17
First Vice President Kiir presented President Bashir with a
white paper indicating that there will be no political
alliance in the 2009 election and the SPLM will not work
toward unity in Sudan if the ABC report is not accepted.
Amum believes the NCP is making compromises in response to
the pressure of proposed international meetings on Sudan,
such as the IGAD summit, which the NCP wants to avoid. End
summary.

Crisis Resolved for Now
--------------


2. (C) Meeting with CDA Fernandez December 17, SPLM Secretary
General Pagan Amum was optimistic about the results of his
party's negotiations with the NCP. "The NCP conceded to
remove all strategic obstacles because the SPLM plan worked,"
crowed Amum. He said the NCP agreed to redeploy SAF forces
and to deploy the Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) in the oil
fields, to improve transparency by allowing SPLM
representatives to inspect operations at all oil fields
(except Abyei),to complete border demarcation, and to
release all funds for the census. Amum observed that the NCP
appears to have made a strategic decision to partner with the
SPLM in advance of the 2009 election. Echoing the late John
Garang's vision for a 'New Sudan," Amum said the NCP "must
accept that this will mean transforming and changing Sudan -
a new deal." Amum claimed the NCP had also recognized "signs
that former SAF military officers were planning to move
against the NCP" if it did not resolve the crisis with the
SPLM quickly.


3. (C) Although the cabinet crisis may be behind them, and
both NCP and SPLM sources have indicated that there will be a
swearing-in ceremony o/a December 27 for the new SPLM
Ministers, Amum warned that the NCP must negotiate on Abyei
if it wants a partnership with the SPLM. Amum said Vice
President Kiir had presented President Bashir with a white
paper outlining the negative consequences for the NCP if it
does not fully implement the Abyei Protocol and accept the
Abyei Boundary Commission (ABC) report. In essence, the
paper threatens that if the NCP does not implement the Abyei
Protocol, the SPLM will not agree to a political alliance
with the NCP in the 2009 elections, and the SPLM will not
campaign for unity in Sudan leading up to the 2011
referendum. However, Amum claimed that the SPLM would
campaign for unity if the ABC report is accepted, and he
predicted that this would make the SPLM popular in the North
during the 2009 elections.

Request for U.S. Assistance on Abyei
--------------


4. (C) Amum requested U.S. assistance with the resolution of
the Abyei dispute, and suggested a high-level meeting to push
the NCP in the right direction. "The U.S. needs to play a
role - if the ABC report is not accepted, it hurts the CPA
and that hurts U.S. policy of a united, stable Sudan." If
the ABC report is not accepted, he predicted, this will lead
to disintegration and the Abyei Dinka leaders in the SPLM
could seek to start a border war. Amum claimed that if there
is a border war in Abyei, the Misseriya will be with the SPLM
because above all they are interested in grazing rights in
Bahr al Ghazal.


5. (C) Amum said President Bashir had asked the SPLM to
report on Secretary Rice's Ministerial in Addis Ababa and
appeared concerned about reported plans for an IGAD Summit.
Amum intimated that it appeared the NCP is responding to the
threat of external meetings on Sudan, which it wants to
avoid. "We told them there will be an IGAD meeting, and they
are responding to these pressures," observed Amum. Amum said
the SPLM also plans to organize a meeting of all Sudanese

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political parties in Juba sometime early in the new year.
"Hassan al Turabi is the first person we will invite," but he
said the SPLM will also invite members of every other
political party including the NCP. CDA encouraged Amum and
the SPLM to nurture relationship with other opposition
parties, noting that they will be valuable allies in the
future and these relationships can help lead toward the
political transformation of Sudan. (Note: The political
parties meeting in Juba seems to be planned for sometime
after the January 9 three-year anniversary celebration of the
signing of the CPA. According to both NCP and SPLM sources,
CPA commemoration events are planned for Khartoum, Juba, and
possibly Wau. End note.)

AEC Chair
--------------


6. (C) CDA Fernandez encouraged Amum to convince the SPLM to
be open to the UK candidate for AEC chair, former UK
Ambassador to Cairo Derek Plumley. CDA assured Amum that the
U.S. would not allow a puppet to serve as AEC chair. (Note:
As reported in Ref B, the SPLM is concerned that since
Plumley is an Arabist, he may be partial to the NCP point of
view. End note.)


7. (C) Comment: This was a very different Pagan Amum to the
one who was warning of impending war just a month ago.
Although Amum's offer of Abyei for an NCP-SPLM partnership is
logical and we have heard similar suggestions from members of
both parties and from observers, it still appears unlikely
that the NCP will be willing to offer up Abyei, and it is
also unclear that the SPLM can deliver on a promise of unity
in 2011. However both parties have achieved their short term
goals, just in time for the Eid and Christmas holidays. The
NCP has avoided "internationalizing" discussions of the CPA
and did not give up anything on Abyei, while the SPLM has
gained public and private commitments from the NCP to
complete actions on CPA implementation - actions that should
have been achieved already. The SPLM was also successful in
removing turncoat ministers and enforcing party discipline,
which was one of the flashpoints for the SPLM withdrawal of
its Ministers from the GNU October 11. Progress on critical
areas of agreement such as force redeployment and the census
is unlikely before the end of the year, but at least with the
political crisis behind them for now, the CPA partners may
attempt to move forward on these areas of agreement early in
the new year.
POWERS