MINAWI: SLM CRIPPLED BY INTRIGUE AS NCP ATTEMPTS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 002013

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG,
NEA/ARP (ASTEINFELD),NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL SU
SUBJECT: MINAWI: SLM CRIPPLED BY INTRIGUE AS NCP ATTEMPTS
TO FREEZE DPA

REF: KHARTOUM 01686

KHARTOUM 00002013 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)

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NCP Tries to Split SLM, Suspend DPA/TDRA
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1. (C) Para 7 contains an action item recommending demarching
the UAE government on the appropriate channel for UAE
assistance to Darfur.


2. (C) The Sudan Liberation Movement's (SLM) political
paralysis has grown worse in recent days as Presidential
Advisor Nafie Ali Nafie is using SLM Secretary General
Mustafa Tirab to split the movement, Senior Assistant to the
President and SLM chairman Minni Minawi told POLOFF on
December 15. Tirab participated in the National Congress
Party's (NCP) delegation to the UN/AU-organized Darfur peace
talks in October, against the official SLM policy, which
precipitated the current internal crisis. Nafie is pressing
Tirab to establish a breakaway SLM faction based on a
willingness to participate in future talks, claimed Minawi.
The NCP will then use the split as a pretext for freezing
Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) implementation and announcing a
suspension of the Transitional Darfur Regional Authority
(TDRA).

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Assassination Threat
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3. (S/NF) Intrigue concerning Tirab has reached a critical
level within the SLM. Minawi alleged that the Secretary
General is planning an assassination attempt against him
during his upcoming trip to Al Daein, South Darfur. Though
calling the threat "very serious," Minawi was confident that
an assassination could be avoided, and his security
operatives are already preparing Al Daein for his arrival.
Indicating that the SLM may be splitting along ethnic lines,
Minawi said that he had learned of the plot via Zaghawa
operatives who had overheard Tirab discussing it with a few
of his loyalists, who, like Tirab, are Fur.

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Tirab's Rhetoric Matches NCP's
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4. (C) Tirab's rhetoric has begun to reflect that of key
regime figures, explained Minawi. In a recent party meeting,
Tirab characterized MP Ali Traio, chairman of the Darfur
Reconstruction and Development Fund (DRDF) Abduljabar Dousa,
legal counsel Abdulaziz Sam, deputy TDRA head Mohammed Al
Tijani, and Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) liaison
(and Minawi's brother) Hussein Arko--among the best minds in
the SLM leadership and Minawi's closest advisors--as "U.S.
spies." National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS)
Director General Salah Ghosh made identical comments to
Minawi one month ago. According to Minawi, Tirab is now in
Dubai convincing the UAE government to transfer its recent
pledge of 12 million USD for humanitarian and development
programs in Darfur directly to Khartoum rather than through
the DRDF as envisioned in the DPA (reftel). Such a
misdirected transfer by the UAE would be a body blow to
efforts to strengthen a credible TDRA.

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Hoping for Tirab's Resignation
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5. (C) In spite of Tirab's subversion, Minawi is resistant to
order his expulsion from the movement, fearing that a public
dismissal could leave doubt as to who is at fault. Instead,
Minawi continues to hope that Tirab will resign. TDRA
Secretary General Mohammed Suleiman has orchestrated an

SIPDIS
internal party "discussion" for December 17 where Minawi
believes prominent party leaders will demand Tirab's
resignation, leaving the Secretary General little choice but
to depart his post.

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Minawi-Nafie Go Head to Head
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6. (C) Minawi is scheduled to meet with Nafie on December 16

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and will demand a clear statement of the NCP's position on
DPA implementation and the TDRA. Minawi predicted that Nafie
will press the SLM to integrate its military elements into
the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The SLM has rejected NCP
attempts to press for integration because it would take the
movement's one piece of leverage off the table and runs
contrary to the timeline set out in the DPA, which demands
disarmament of the Janjaweed prior to the integration of
rebel forces. Minawi plans to travel to Darfur on December
19 and remain there until early to mid-January. Positing
that the NCP may use the holiday season--while Western eyes
are focused elsewhere--to announce the suspension of the DPA
and the TDRA, the SLM chairman said, "it's better for me to
be in the field if they freeze the agreement."


7. (C) Comment/recommendation: This intrigue is the latest
chapter in a very long story, Khartoum's tactic of divide and
rule, a tactic which successive regimes have practiced since
the inception of Sudan's independence 51 years ago. At the
very least, we strongly encourage that a message be passed
through Embassy Abu Dhabi that UAE officials only provide
assistance through the TDRA and that means through Mini
Minawi. To do otherwise is to carry Khartoum's water in
seeking to further splinter rebel movements, political
parties, IDP camps and civil society which translates into
further misery for the people of Darfur.


8. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
FERNANDEZ