SAF AND SPLA FORCE REDEPLOYMENT FACES TOUGH DEADLINES,

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 002003 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE NATSIOS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SAF AND SPLA FORCE REDEPLOYMENT FACES TOUGH DEADLINES, LOGISTIC CHALLENGES REFERENCE: KHARTOUM 1928 ¶1. (SBU) Media reported on December 12 that Joint Defense Board (JDB) spokesman Lt. General Abdalrahman Mohammed Zain said that Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) forces will begin redeployment consistent with the 1/1/56 border the weekend of December 14. SPLA forces will immediately redeploy out Abumatarig and Dibb (in Western Kordofan) and SAF forces will mirror this movement out of South Sudan. ¶2. (SBU) This announcement reflects the decision of the December 3 Ceasefire Joint Monitoring Committee (CJMC),which established the following timetable for redeployment of forces from Southern Sudan, Blue Nile and Southern and Western Kordofan: - SAF & SPLA are to be redeployed North and South respectively by 33.3 percent by December 15; - SAF & SPLA are to be redeployed North and South respectively by 66.7 percent by December 31; - Full redeployment for both sides to complete by January 9, 2008. - Concurrent redeployment of Joint Integrated Units (JIU) by January 9, 2008. - Missiriya militia from Western Kordofan to be redeployed to the South by December 15. ¶3. (SBU) UN Deputy Force Commander Colonel Aja Sah told poloff on December 13 that based on the December 3 Kampala CJMC, UNMIS would monitor SAF/SPLA redeployments which should be completed by January 9, 2008. Sah said that to date he had not seen any SAF or SPLA operational orders yet, but stressed that Joint Monitoring Teams (JMT) are ready to monitor any movement if they take place this weekend. Asked which specific SAF and SPLA units plan to start moving this weekend, Sah replied, "I am looking for such a plan as well." ¶4. (SBU) Commander of the JIU, Lt. General Thomas Cirillo, told emboff on November 29 that while JIUs are considered 82 percent redeployed or at least co-located, substantial obstacles to the completion of the redeployment of the rest remain. These included lack of accommodations, water, medical support services, infrastructure, communication equipment, and logistical transport equipment. Without overcoming these major obstacles, JIUs cannot be redeployed to takeover from the redeployed SAF/SPLA forces, especially with such a tight schedule. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: The number of SAF troops to be redeployed number 3,600 while estimates of SPLA forces to be redeployed exceed 50,000 (the SPLA may have inflated their numbers but they are the ones who provided them). The size of the forces to be moved necessitates careful planning, which we have not seen and is unusual in Sudan under the best circumstances. These logistical problems are compounded by the agreement to concurrently redeploy the JIUs to take over for the redeployed SAF/SPLA forces, which is also unlikely to occur so quickly. We would expect some furtive troop movements this weekend followed by a hold-in-place of some troops. Some soldiers may simply have to be "re-branded" as JIU troops. The next CJMC meeting is scheduled for December 17. FERNANDEZ