South Sudan: Finance Minister Delivers a Sober 2008 Budget

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 002001 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, EEB/IFD/ODF DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN DEPT PLS PASS TREASURY FOR OIA AND USED WORLD BANK SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EAID PGOV SOCI IBRD SU SUBJECT: South Sudan: Finance Minister Delivers a Sober 2008 Budget Presentation ¶1. (SBU) Summary: GoSS Finance Minister Mawein delivered a sober assessment of the governance challenges facing South Sudan on December 10, when delivering the draft 2008 budget to the Legislative Assembly (SSLA). Mawein identified a bloated workforce, almost total dependence on oil revenues, and corruption as among the serious problems that will not be corrected in the short term. The balanced 2008 budget projects revenues of U.S. $1.71 billion (97% from oil revenues) and expenditures of $1.708 billion (55% to pay salaries). He urged the SSLA not to tamper with the proposed budget, but legislators may be sorely tempted to reshape it to their own liking. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On December 10, Government of South Sudan (GoSS) Minister of Finance and Planning Kuol Athian Mawein presented the government's proposed 2008 budget to the South Sudan Legislative Assembly. (He had previously provided a background briefing to the donor community on December 7.) Mawein characterized the GoSS development strategy as seeking to reduce poverty by providing a framework for private sector development and sustainable growth. The balanced 2008 draft budget is designed to help establish this framework. Mawein urged legislators to resist the temptation to tamper with budget significantly, as they did in 2007. -------------- Challenges to Governance and Development -------------- ¶3. (U) Mawein was blunt in his assessment in the challenges the GoSS faces in putting its fiscal house in order. He listed them as: 1.) Lack of capacity, 2.) An excessive and unproductive government workforce - salaries for 112,000 civilian GoSS employees will absorb 55% of expenditures, 3.) Security - 49% of 2008 expenditures will go to the SPLA and "other organized" security forces (e.g., police and prison guards), 4.) Low mobilization of domestic resources - 97% of projected revenues will come from the GoSS share of Sudan's oil exports under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),and 5.) Widespread corruption - including procurement fraud, nepotism, expense padding, and ghost workers. Mawein stated frankly that these obstacles must be overcome before the GoSS can achieve its development objectives and that doing so will require a sustained effort over a number of years. ¶4. (SBU) Mawein outlined steps being taken to increase GoSS non-oil revenues. (Note: GoSS officials - including President Kiir - regularly express to us their discomfort at GoSS dependence on the volatile and opaque CPA oil-revenue sharing system that is effectively controlled by the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Khartoum. End note.) The GoSS will begin collecting a newly-enacted ten percent Personal Income Tax (PIT),starting with government salaries. In addition, it plans to tighten administration and enforcement of existing duties, especially customs, currently the largest GoSS source of non-oil revenue. Mawein suggested that non-oil revenue collection is plagued by inefficiency and corruption. (Note: Under the CPA, only half of these revenues will be kept by the GoSS, the other half going to the GNU. End note.) ¶5. (U) The GoSS has begun to tighten personnel administration to reduce exorbitant payroll costs. It is taking measures to identify "ghost workers" and remove them from the payroll. It also is examining options for large scale reductions in force, including DDR from the SPLA. In briefing the donor community on December 7, Mawein said that the GoSS does not want to discharge redundant employees without first establishing alternative employment/incomes for them. Many of these individuals deserve support due to their service in the SPLA during the civil war. Mawein said that the GoSS will be seeking donor support for this exercise. ¶6. (U) Mawein also described measures are or will be taken to increase transparency and reduce corruption. The 2008 budget aims to encompass all known financing needs to minimize the need for supplementary requests. The GoSS plans to revise its procurement system, including drafting a new Procurement Act, hiring a Procurement Advisor (for which it might seek donor assistance),and establish a registry for government contracts. In 2008, every agency will receive a monthly report from the MinFin, comparing expenditures with budget allocation. The Finance Minister also will KHARTOUM 00002001 002 OF 003 make monthly progress reports to the Council of Ministers and quarterly reports to the SSLA on budget execution. -------------- 2007 Performance -------------- ¶7. (U) The GoSS appears poised to just barely achieve its 2007 fiscal targets, thanks to an upsurge in oil revenues in the last half of the year. Last year, the SSLA significantly increased the GoSS proposed expenditures, counting on non-oil revenue projections that never materialized. Oil-revenues also lagged behind expectations in the first half of the year. Mawein also blamed poor budget execution and discipline for much of the problem, noting that some ministries overspent their budgets early in the year and had to be bailed out later with funds from the reserve. ¶8. (U) On the bright side, Mawein pointed to infrastructure projects accomplished in 2007, increased school enrollment, several agricultural projects, and somewhat accelerated DDR and IDP repatriation. -------------- 2008 Budget -------------- ¶9. (U) Mawein noted that he was presenting the SSLA with a balanced budget and warned the Assembly that revenue projections in the budget are the most that reasonably can be expected. Any increases in appropriations made by the Assembly should be matched with cuts elsewhere. Overall, budget spending equals $140 per capita in South Sudan, more than most other countries in the region (e.g., Uganda's is $75 per capita). Mawein also noted that the GoSS 2008 budget is the first to be presented in Sudanese Pounds. (Note: For convenience, the figures in this message are given in U.S. dollars, at the rate of U.S. $1:2 Sudanese Pounds. End note.) ¶10. (U) Projected total revenues: $1.71 billion Of which: Oil revenues $1.66 billion Non-oil revenues $5.0 million Projected total expenditures: $1.708 billion Of which: Salaries $940 million Operating costs $399 million Capital investment $369 million Mawein decried high operating costs, noting that the GoSS hospitality budget is almost as much as that for training. More positively, he noted that 75% of the capital expenditures will go to construction, renovation, and GoSS contributions to Multidonor Trust Fund (MDTF) projects. The budget allocates $78 million to the World Bank-administered MDTF. ¶11. (U) 2008 GoSS budget broken down by appropriations to GoSS agencies, grouped by functional sector: Public Administration $109.5 million Accountability $26.5 million (Anti-Corruption Commission, Auditors Chamber, etc.) Economic Functions $37.5 million Infrastructure $259 million Natural Resources and $98.5 million Rural Development Health $72 million (including $3.15 million for HIV/AIDS) Ministry of Education $110 million SPLA $500 mi1lion DDR $3.0 million Demining $1.5 million Social and $77.5 million Humanitarian Affairs KHARTOUM 00002001 003 OF 003 Rule of Law $253.5 million ¶12. (U) In addition, the Finance Ministry is to provide approximately $159 million in block grants to South Sudan's ten constituent states. An additional $5 million will be allocated to the CPA-designated "three areas" of Abyei, Southern Blue Nile, and Southern Kordofan. Line ministries (primarily Education) will transfer about a further $86 million to states in targeted grants. Mawein warned that the states are likely to press legislators for increased budgetary support, but urged them to resist. (At the December 7 briefing, some donors expressed disappointment at reported reductions in health-related transfers.) The states must do more to increase their own revenue-generating capacity, he said. ¶13. (U) The proposed budget also would begin to replenish the government's financial reserves with $24 million in 2008. The reserves were depleted in 2006 and 2007 to meet shortfalls that Mawein blamed on poor budgetary discipline. Again, Mawein urged the SSLA to resist the temptation to divert these funds to other purposes. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶14. (SBU) With the support of the Council of Ministers, the GoSS Finance Ministry has made a good-faith effort to table a realistic and responsible fiscal program for 2008. Given resource constraints and the almost limitless need for more government services and investment in South Sudan, it is impossible to please everyone, or even anyone. It remains to be seen whether the SSLA can demonstrate sufficient self-control to resist stirring the pot. FERNANDEZ