SPLM AND NCP SPIN PEACE TALKS PROGRESS, MANUEVER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001938 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, AF/SE NATSIOS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREF PHUM SU SUBJECT: SPLM AND NCP SPIN PEACE TALKS PROGRESS, MANUEVER FOR ADVANTAGE REF: A. KHARTOUM 1894 ¶B. KHARTOUM 1912 ¶C. KHARTOUM 1916 ¶D. KHARTOUM 1930 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) Summary: If all outstanding CPA issues including Abyei are not resolved by January 9, the SPLM may rejoin the Government of National Unity, but will not partner with the NCP in the 2009 elections, according to SPLM Deputy SG for the Northern Sector Yasir Arman. Meanwhile NCP sources indicate that they recognize their dependence on the SPLM in the elections, and claim the six-member committee will present an implementation report (on all issues except Abyei) to President Bashir by December 10, in advance of the next meeting between Bashir and First Vice President Salva Kiir. Neither party seems to be charging toward the census and the 2009 election. End summary. SPLM HOLDING OUT ON ABYEI, PRESSURING NCP ON ELECTIONS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Arman told poloffs December 6 that SPLM representatives were pleased with their meeting with Secretary Rice in Addis Ababa on December 5 and look forward SIPDIS to the IGAD summit that was proposed by Kenya for January. Arman said he would travel to Addis that evening to join SPLM colleagues in meetings with the Ethiopian government to strengthen the SPLM-Ethiopian bilateral relationship. Given the success of the Darfur mediation in Juba, Arman said the SPLM would like to continue to play a positive role as a mediator within the broader region, including between Ethiopia and Eristrea, and requested that this message be passed to Washington. ¶3. (C) Arman reported that the six-person committee will convene on the evening of December 6 to discuss the outstanding issues related to security arrangements, elections and census, and border demarcation. He noted that Abyei will no longer be discussed in the six-person committee as the Presidency (Al-Bashir, Taha and Kiir) has taken up the issue. He stated that SPLM Presidential advisor Luka Biong Deng will attend six-member meetings as SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum is in Addis. He expected State Minister for Humanitarian Affairs Ahmed Haroun (an indicted ICC war crimes suspect) and NCP negotiator Dirdeiry Mohammad Ahmed to 
attend for the NCP. He said the six person committee will submit a report to the presidency by December 11. ¶4. (C) Arman said that by January 9 there must be a resolution to all unsolved CPA issues, including Abyei, or the SPLM will change its strategy for the 2009 elections. Although the SPLM may return its ministers to the Government of National Unity, he said the SPLM will not to partner with the NCP in the 2009 elections if Abyei is not resolved. He claimed that NCP leaders have admitted to the SPLM that they cannot win the elections without a NCP-SPLM alliance and that the NCP even proposed that it would benefit both parties if the 2009 elections did not take place. The SPLM is actively seeking alliances with political parties from Darfur, the North, and the East, according to Arman (the NCP is doing the same). He said that the Umma party and other traditional parties are "not our cup of tea" but the SPLM will work with anyone who supports a democratic coalition for a new Sudan. Arman was reluctant to describe the SPLM's campaign strategy as the periphery versus the center, as many marginalized individuals have now moved to Khartoum. NCP CLAIMS PROGRESS IN JDB AND SIX-MEMBER TALKS -------------- -- ¶5. (C) Meanwhile the NCP claims it is making progress on CPA implementation and that the SPLM is merely seeking strategies to delay the 2009 election. NCP spokesman for the six-member committee Dirdeiry Mohamed Ahmed told polchief December 5 that the NCP is ready to implement the entire agenda for the six-man talks. He said that some items had in fact already been achieved: all funds for the census had been released, the SPLM had agreed to the national budget, and the Joint Defense Board (JDB) had agreed earlier that day to the full redeployment of troops in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile and oil producing areas in the South (to be replaced by Joint Integrated Units made up of the SPLA and SAF). He said the Ceasefire Joint Monitoring Commission (CJMC) and UNMIS have KHARTOUM 00001938 002 OF 002 been authorized by the respective parties to monitor troop redeployments. ¶6. (C) Dirdeiry said the NCP is ready to make concessions on other items on the agenda, including the way "consultations" occur before the appointment or dismissal of constitutional post holders including Ministers and Presidential advisors. He said the NCP would be willing to define a mechanism for the way these consultations are carried out. An agenda item that is increasingly important to the NCP, he said, is broadly defined as "partnership between the CPA parties." This would include initiatives aimed at unity and democratization as well as "joint mechanisms for addressing strategic challenges." Dirdeiry said this initiative is based on the NCP's recognition that it wants a partnership with the SPLM in the 2009 election. ¶7. (C) Dirdeiry acknowledged that the parties have not made any progress on Abyei but said the issue must be left to the 3-man Presidency to decide otherwise there would be no progress on other areas. He resisted the idea of outside intervention and expressed confidence that the Presidency would find a way to resolve the issue. He said the important thing is to get a temporary administration in place in Abyei so that local governance can proceed. This should also conceivably release a share in Abyei's oil revenues for the Misseriya and Ngok Dinka of the region. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The NCP and SPLM continue to view the CPA not as a partnership but as an agreement from which to extract maximum benefit to each party's gain. The SPLM has not made a clear decision on when its ministers may rejoin the GNU and is holding out as long as possible, hoping for concessions from the NCP on Abyei or intervention from a nervous international community. However the work of the government goes forward without SPLM Ministers (at all levels of government, in Parliament, and the commissions) and the NCP and SPLM continue to consult, most recently on the national budget which will be approved by the Parliament within the next week, on the Joint Defense Board, and in other commissions. The SPLM eagerly awaits the IGAD summit to put additional pressure on the NCP over Abyei, and would welcome high level outside intervention on this issue, while the NCP is opposed to it. The SPLM is also pressuring the NCP with its Darfur initiative, hoping to mount a threat of "periphery vs. NCP" in the 2009 election. However neither party seems to be pushing hard on the organization of the elections, focusing for now on strategic gains. Both benefit financially from the status quo and the SPLM will want to resolve the Abyei border dispute before the election, since it will affect its strategy leading toward the 2011 referendum. For this reason the NCP will presumably avoid fully resolving the issue, holding this out over the SPLM as a trading card for partnership in the elections. Even if there is a breakthough next week and a subsequent honeymoon period, we anticipate continued tension between the two parties condemned to a dysfunctional, suspicious relationship as each sides manuevers for material advantage and seeks to politically undermine their peace partner. FERNANDEZ