SPLA CHIEF OF STAFF OYAI DENG ON MILITARY STATE OF PLAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001928 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE NATSIOS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV MOPS PREL AU SOCI SU SUBJECT: SPLA CHIEF OF STAFF OYAI DENG ON MILITARY STATE OF PLAY REF: KHARTOUM 1709 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: SPLA Chief of Staff Lt. General Oyai Deng Ajak told CDA that he was pessimistic about any great progress in deploying SAF-SPLA Joint Integrated Units (JIUs),and downplayed the significance of remaining southern troops on the border areas such as Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile. He said tension between the two forces remains and suggested that the space between the two armies be increased and welcomed planned increases in USAID humanitarian programs in the border areas known as the "Three Areas." End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Sudanese Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) Chief of Staff LTG Oyai Deng told CDA Fernandez on December 5 that he was in Khartoum to attend the Joint Defense Board (JDB) meeting on the SPLA-Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) Joint Integrated Units (JIU). Deng was pessimistic on making any real headway towards an agreement on the JIUs, offering his view that the SAF military leadership is waiting for the political green light to any possible agreement towards integration. "It's always next time, next time with them." He had met with FVP Salva Kiir earlier in the day who told him to do everything possible to ease tensions between the SPLA and SAF. ¶3. (SBU) Giving a snapshot of current redeployment efforts, Deng said that the SPLA is supposed to redeploy out of the Blue Nile and in Nuba Mountains. He said the SPLA formerly had a division in the Blue Nile State, but now has only a battalion which is with the JIU. In the Nuba Mountains, he said the SPLA has only one brigade remaining. He said that the UN had checked the redeployed SPLA troops and asked where were their weapons, "we told them that we were a guerrilla army and sometimes you had one rifle for several fighters" (this also raises the possibility that the SPLA may have stashed weapons caches in Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile). ¶4. (SBU) He said the SAF remains in great force in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile, and "well south of the 1-1-56 border" (in Unity and Upper Nile States) and claimed the SAF would still be in the south even if they redeploy northward 20 kilometers because in some cases they are 50 km south of the border. Regarding Abyei, Deng commented that because of the oil the SAF is unlikely to agree to redeploy from the area, therefore he said SPLM forces would not withdraw either. ¶5. (SBU) LTG Deng said recent recruitment of militias in Kordofan went well, and noted that President Bashir said that these same militias should be disarmed and returned to civilian life. This is a suggestion the SPLA finds laughable. Bashir, he said, considers these militias to be northerners, and therefore should not be in the south, "but we consider them to be southerners, so they can remain armed and supported by us." The SPLA is preparing camp sites for these (mostly Missiriyya Arab) units around Bentiu in Unity State. ¶6. (SBU) Asked what issues CDA Fernandez might raise with Minister of Defense Lt. General Abdel Rahim Mohamed Hussein in a future meeting, Deng said to press the Minister on enlarging the space between the two sides from a 20 kilometer gap to a larger one. Deng said that while this begs the issue of demarcating the dividing line, it is in everybody's interest to have both sides move back. He claimed that even if the SAF moves back further than 20 kilometers, they would still be deep in the south. Secondly, Deng suggested that SAF forces in the Blue Nile and Nuba mountains be downsized. Deng said that the Nubans fought for their land and feel betrayed by the south because they do not have a right to self determination in the CPA (unlike Abyei),so a reduction in SAF forces would not undermine northern control of the area. ¶7. (SBU) Deng reacted positively when CDA Fernandez reported that USAID is planning to expand its humanitarian programs in the Three Areas and would like to work with returning SPLA leader Abdul Aziz Helou. Deng said, "the people love him, and we would value his leadership in the Nuba Mountains." As for the government's leadership, Deng opined that people under President Bashir, such as Interior Minister Al Zubair Bashir Taha, should stop pushing Bashir into re-arming the militias. Deng observed that Bashir's underlings try to be more hardline than Bashir to curry favor, and "they can't break the habit." ¶8. (SBU) Comment: Deng's suggestion to increase the distance between armies is not something the SAF would agree to, and we question why Deng would not have proposed it in the Ceasefire Political Commission if it is something the SPLA is serious about. The more pressing issue is demarcation of the border and the monitoring mechanism by the JDB and UNMIS. Leaving Abyei aside, border demarcation and redeployment of troops seems to be something the two sides actually agree on, and we expect to see some progress in this area over the next few months since this is a prominent element in KHARTOUM 00001928 002 OF 002 all the ongoing SPLM-NCP talks. FERNANDEZ