NCP BLAMES SPLM FOR LATE CENSUS AND DEFENDS BELLICOSE

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001890 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE NATSIOS ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: NCP BLAMES SPLM FOR LATE CENSUS AND DEFENDS BELLICOSE BASHIR REFERENCE: (A) KHARTOUM 1796 (B) KHARTOUM 1612 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Meeting with poloffs November 27, Center for Strategic Studies Director Sayed Al-Khatib predicted that the GOS would attend the Addis talks (he was later contradicted by the MFA, though it's not out of the question that the NCP will send someone). Khatib said Abyei should not stop CPA implementation and claimed that the South has sufficient funds to conduct a census and even if conducted late would not affect the elections. He characterized President Bashir's bellicose statements before the Popular Defense Forces as a "gaffe." End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Before the MFA had provided its official response, Khatib said the NCP would attend the December 5 Addis Ababa Ministerial on Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) implementation. Khatib thought the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) might send Under Secretary Mutriff Siddiq, who has political weight in the National Congress Party. ¶3. (SBU) Turning to the standoff between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM),Khatib said the SPLM often accuses the NCP of not being serious about CPA implementation but claimed this is not true. "We are serious, but some of their proposals have no merit," such as re-calling the experts to defend the Abyei Boundary Commission (ABC) report. The experts repeating their report would be inconclusive, said Khatib. In the meantime, he claimed the NCP wants to put the interim administration in place, and not hold up implementation of the rest of the CPA. ¶4. (SBU) Turning to elections, Khatib predicted that 2009 elections will occur on schedule. He conceded that there are problems getting the census organized, but pointed out that the UN has said that the main delays are in the South, and are not due to any lack of funds. (Note: Our understanding is that the GNU has released all funds required for the census through December.) Khatib added that the Government of South Sudan, as per the CPA, controls census implementation in the South. Khatib believes that if the census is held in February, it likely will not result in an accurate count due to lack of adequate preparation. He said delaying the census by two months should not interfere with elections. ¶5. (SBU) Asked about President Bashir's controversial speech before the Popular Defence Forces (ref A),Khatib called the statements a "gaffe" and downplayed their significance. These things have happened in the past with President Bashir, he said. "The President is a populist and sometimes gets carried away with the moment, depending on the crowd he is speaking to." ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Khatib himself is a likely candidate to attend the Addis Ministerial if the NCP ultimately agrees to attend (which thus far it has declined through the MFA). We will continue to remind the Sudanese that the Ministerial will move forward even if they do not attend. Khatib's comments on the census indicate that the NCP is looking to April as a likely date, which could be problematic given the rainy season. Most observers agree that holding the census during the rainy season will strongly disadvantage the South. FERNANDEZ