AEC COORDINATORS REVISE STRATEGY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001881

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: AEC COORDINATORS REVISE STRATEGY

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1869

B. KHARTOUM 1861

C. KHARTOUM 1828

Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Meeting in Khartoum November 29, AEC Working
Group coordinators (UK, Netherlands, Norway, Italy Ambassador
plus US CDA) decided to delay presentation of their proposal
on strengthening the role of the AEC chair till after
presenting and gaining confirmation of the proposed UK
candidate to replace Vraalsen. They also decided to delay
the proposed high-level AEC meeting, possibly till o/a
January 9 to coincide with the three-year$anniversary o vhesigning of The ApE (rhouwh die ai. oRj%cvi~e is(ot!tosmnmye4(wip choSsrnQ,
WE8SAuM 7ED(W1vnero m2emaeQKI(Fi`kca/.zi~b$9!:e&x:!^k#Nga6Exw=0]M DnW}^vEh
in the GNU parliament Aligo Manoa Donga could become the SPLM
leader on the AEC but faces party discipline investigations.
Arman reportedly echoed what we have reported (Ref A)
regarding SPLM optimism that they will rejoin the GNU soon,
possibly as early as next week. End summary.

--------------
Present UK Candidate First
--------------


2. (C) Meeting November 29, AEC Coordinators reversed course
from previous meetings (reftels) and decided to move forward
first on seeking acceptance of the UK nominee to replace Tom
Vraalsen as AEC Chair -- which will require a revised
presidential decree -- and only then to present their
proposals on strengthening the mandate of the AEC chair to
other observers and the CPA parties themselves. (Note: The
UK nominee for AEC chair is the outgoing British Ambassador
to Cairo, Derek Plumley, a career diplomat and Arabist.) UK
Ambassador Marsden asked for assurances that the US and
Norway intend to continue their generous financial support of
the AEC.


3. (C) The Coordinator's decision is based on the assumption
that if the NCP first receives the proposal to strengthen the
role of the AEC chair, it will likely block not only the
proposal but also the UK nominee. Moreover, a nominee from
another country besides Norway will require a new
presidential decree (the CPA and the decree now say Norway)
which the NCP will no doubt delay if confronted with a
tougher mandate. There is also a real possibility that the
number of international AEC observers will be cut from seven
to two in the new decree. The CPA only envisions two
observers, while the current decree incorrectly allows for
seven observers (and even more oddly, it indicates that four
of them will come from the UK). The NCP would be fully in
compliance with the CPA in restriction the burgeoning
international presence on the AEC. The Norwegian Ambassador
noted that Salva Kiir recently brought this to Tom Vraalsen's
attention, reportedly saying, "you should know that we know
that we can go from seven to two observers."


4. (C) NCP AEC member Dr. Said al-Khatib is also well aware
of this contradiction. The only way to avoid a new decree
is for Norway to keep the AEC chairmanship, which Norway has
already declined. The general assumption among the AEC
Coordinators is that the NCP will likely seize on the
opportunity to cut the number of observers in the next
decree. Therefore Coordinators decided the best course of
action (or better-phrased the least worse course of action)
is to first present the candidate and seek his approval, then
press for the a new decree also with seven observers, and
then seek a strengthened mandate for the AEC chair. UK also
suggested that while the new candidate for chairman be
presented in Khartoum for approval, that his case should also
be presented by the UK Ambassador to Ethiopia and US
Ambassador to Kenya, since neither country has a senior
diplomatic representative currently in Sudan.

--------------
No High-level AEC Meeting in December
--------------


5. (C) AEC Coordinators also decided that a high-level AEC

KHARTOUM 00001881 002.2 OF 002


meeting in mid-December will not be possible. Kenya
reportedly plans to organize an IGAD Summit or Ministerial on
Sudan in December, before the Kenyan elections, and the AEC
should not conflict with this initiative. Even if the
Kenyan-organized IGAD meeting falls through, current AEC
chair Vraalsen is leaving Khartoum December 15 and has
indicated that he is not willing to chair another AEC
meeting. Vraalsen announced at the AEC meeting November 20
(Ref B) that it would be his last meeting. There is also the
expected IPF prepcon in Rome o/a December 17.

--------------
SPLM News
--------------


6. (C) The Norwegian Ambassador reported that, per his
conversation with SPLM Northern rep Yasir Arman November 28,
former SPLA commander and Garang confidante Abdel Aziz has
repaired relations with Salva Kiir and plans to return to
Sudan from the U.S. Chair of the SPLM caucus in the GNU
parliament Aligo Manoa Donga will become the SPLM leader on
the AEC but he, and several other SPLM leaders (such as Lam
Akol, Tillar Deng, and others) face disciplinary action for
transgressing party discipline. Yasir was optimistic on the
SPLM rejoining the GNU, saying that the SPLM will propose
several "options" on Abyei regarding the border and wealth
sharing "when we are back" in the government.


7. (C) Comment: With changes needed in the mandate of the
new chairman, the approval of the individual identified, the
massive departure of staff, questions about budgets, and the
presidential decree needed to codify any changes, it will be
a major miracle if the AEC can function normally in the next
few months. At the very least, we need to get a new chairman
approved by all sides and ensure a working budget and minimal
staff while trying to expand the flexibility and independence
of the incoming chairman. End comment.
FERNANDEZ