JEM CFC REP WARNS OF LOOMING CONFLICTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001752 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: JEM CFC REP WARNS OF LOOMING CONFLICTS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. In a sobering November 6 meeting with FieldOff, the Justice and Equality Movement representative to the Second Chamber of the Ceasefire Commission (CFC) at AMIS Headquarters warned that the current widespread deployment of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) throughout the three Darfur states - in an attempt to expand areas of control - will only strengthen the resolve of the rebel movements to present a unified front, not only in Sirte talks but also on the battlefield against the SAF. According to the JEM rep, JEM and Sudan Liberation Army-Unity movements are close to unifying and will likely attend planned December peace negotiations, but only if a neutral venue, clear end date and absence of GoS-aligned factions can be assured. The JEM rep blames such factions for the September attack on AMIS forces at Haskanita and warned that history would repeat itself if the international community does not bring to justice the perpetrators of this attack. The rep predicts that the likelihood of estrangement from his IDP support base will ultimately drive SLA leader Abdelwahid al-Nur to the December talks. JEM rep reaffirmed JEM's stated intention to continue attacks against China if it maintains its support to the GoS. The rep's messages in this meeting illustrate the tense atmosphere that persists as all parties to the Darfur conflict jockey for both positions at the negotiating table and areas of control on the ground. END SUMMARY. AS SAF DARFUR DEPLOYMENT INTENSIFIES . . . -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The JEM CFC representative did not mince words in a November 6 courtesy call with FieldOff in Bashir's office at AMIS El Fasher Headquarters when characterizing the current SAF deployment in the three Darfur states as a "preparation for war." He described in great detail evidence of this deployment (which the rep claims JEM has submitted as a complaint to AMIS),seen in movement of heavy equipment through airports in Darfur state capitals, in the presence of 70 SAF Land Cruisers in Jedid al-Sail (a village 16-20 km northeast of El Fasher) and of SAF helicopter gunships in El Geneina, and in the deployment of SAF members to El Geneina via Nyala by the trainload. JEM rep asserts that all this activity is a GoS attempt to expand its areas of control on the ground in the countdown to final peace negotiations slated for December. He also claims to have the names of the leaders of the 4000 janjaweed fighters whom the GoS has recruited in each of the three Darfur states. Cutting the 90-minute meeting "short" in order to catch a ride to an undisclosed location in the field, the JEM rep promised to provide FieldOff with exact locations of significant SAF deployments upon his return. . . . SO TOO DOES REBELS' RESOLVE FOR UNITY -------------- ¶3. (SBU) JEM rep contends that the SAF's deployment plans have shown the rebel movements and factions the futility of reacting independently to the GoS military threat and have consequently strengthened their resolve to seek a united front around the negotiating table and on the battlefield. According to the rep, JEM and SLA-Unity have signed an agreement in the past days to unite against the SAF threat. On the political side, JEM and SLA-Unity are coordinating their leadership and forming joint teams to try to unify their views ahead of peace talks - not quite true unification yet, rep says, but very close to it. He assures JEM is ready for the upcoming talks and will likely attend, but only if a neutral venue, a clear end date, and an absence of what he considers GoS-aligned factions (including JEM-Idriss Ibrahim Azrag, JEM-Collective Leadership Banda Abu Garda and National Movement for Reconstruction and Development) can be assured. ¶4. (SBU) JEM rep reports that the other rebel movements are similarly uniting militarily to attack SAF assembly points. Politically the five main SLA factions continue their efforts in Juba to combat what he considers GoS attempts at fragmentation, and the rep expects those movements will form two groups to present themselves at December negotiations. JEM rep faults the international community for giving a forum to the "small and insignificant" factions that went to Sirte, especially JEM Collective Leadership - Bahar/Banda, which Bashir says is responsible for the September attack on the AMIS installation at Haskanita. The JEM rep serves on the AMIS team investigating this incident, which he characterizes as an act of banditry by poorly equipped groups attempting to re-arm and preying on AMIS in an area outside the peacekeepers' control. He warns that Haskanita history will repeat itself and that a similar incident will happen again if the international community and the African Union do not bring to justice the perpetrators of this attack. ¶5. (SBU) JEM rep acknowledges the persisting influence of SLA leader Abdelwahid al-Nur on the IDP Fur populations but recommends that the December talks go on should al-Nur opt not to go. The rep predicts that the likelihood of estrangement from his IDP support base should KHARTOUM 00001752 002 OF 002 other rebel factions conclude an agreement at negotiations while al-Nur stays away will ultimately compel Abdelwahid to attend. CHINA STILL NOT EXEMPT FROM BLAME -------------- ¶6. (SBU) JEM rep reasserted JEM's stated intention, following its October 23 kidnapping of foreign employees at the Delfra oilfield in Kordofan, to continue attacks against China if it maintains its support to the GoS. He contends that China's only contribution to the Darfur crisis is in weapons - "all arms captured in battle in Darfur were made in China" - not in humanitarian assistance, and that China is "continuing to steal our oil," thus justifying JEM's campaign against Chinese workers in Sudan. The rep said JEM had advised other oil exporters (namely India) to halt production until Darfur peace was achieved, but he did not rule out the possibility of JEM's targeting other nationalities for following China's lead. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The JEM rep interviewed, bearing the rank of general, is a prime example of a high-ranking rebel representative who still maintains field credibility. He appeared in fatigues and headwrap for the meeting with FieldOff, and discussion was regularly interrupted by the incessant ringing of his cell phone. The rep cut the 90-minute meeting "short" to catch a flight to an undisclosed location, illustrating his intimate knowledge of the situation on the ground. While his opposition to the GoS colors his discourse, JEM rep's messages nonetheless illustrate the tense atmosphere that persists as all parties to the Darfur conflict jockey for both positions at the negotiating table and areas of control on the battlefield. END COMMENT. FERNANDEZ