AS DARFUR VIOLENCE SPREADS, SLM THREATENS RETURN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001587

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO MOPS AU SU
SUBJECT: AS DARFUR VIOLENCE SPREADS, SLM THREATENS RETURN
TO CONFLICT

REF: A. KHARTOUM 01389

B. KHARTOUM 01439

C. KHARTOUM 01535

D. KHARTOUM 01480

Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Violence in South Darfur--set off by an August 30
rebel incursion into Kordofan--continues to escalate with the
onset of an attack on Muhajeria that began October 8 (Ref.
A). The Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) led by Senior
Assistant to the President Minni Minawi, which controls
Muhajeria, has claimed that a combination of Sudanese Armed
Forces (SAF) and Arab militias launched the attack. While the
SLM's control over the area has weakened in recent months
with the degradation of Minawi's command structure, the
October 8 attack has set off panic within the SLM. In
private conversations and in public remarks (including on Al
Jazeera) SLM commanders and political leaders are threatening
a return to conflict and blaming a Sudanese government of
which they are (ostensibly) a part. Minawi, who was visiting
West Darfur at the time of the attack, is returning to
Khartoum.


2. (C) Credible sources in Muhajeria report that the Maalia
Arab tribe, supported by SAF trucks, attacked the town
beginning at 1300 hours local on October 8. These same
sources reported several Antonov's overflying the air during
the attack, though no bombing. SLM leaders confirmed these
accounts in conversations with Poloff on October 8 and 9.
The majority of Muhajeria's 30,000 people have fled the town,
with many seeking refuge near the AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS)
camp in the area. SLM representatives indicate that their
forces are attempting to fight off the attackers from a
position west of Muhajeria.


3. (C) Rumors have spread within the SLM and other rebel
movements that AMIS requested the Sudanese Government to take
action in Muhajeria, fearing a repeat of the September 29
attack on an AMIS military group site in Haskanita, South
Darfur which many have attributed to break-away elements of
the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the Sudan
Liberation Army (SLA)/Unity (Ref. B and C). Undersecretary
of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mutriff Siddiq told CDA
Fernandez on October 9 that SAF military operations in the
Muhajeria were conducted in direct response to a request by
AMIS. With resentment toward AMIS already high among both
the armed movements and the local population of Darfur, these
rumors further undermine support for its leadership and
operations.


4. (C) If reports of Sudanese Government involvement in the
attack on Muhajeria prove accurate, this incident represents
the most significant Government violation of the existing
cease-fire arrangements since the signing of the DPA. The
October 8 attack is just the most recent episode of spiraling
violence in South Darfur less than three weeks before the
start of UN/AU-sponsored negotiations in Libya: The August 30
rebel attack in Wad Banda, Kordofan; the September 9 SAF
bombings near Haskanita; the September 28 rebel attack on the
AMIS camp near Haskanita that left 10 peace-keepers dead; and
the October 5 attack on Haskanita that destroyed the town and
displaced over 7,000 people.

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Comment
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5. (C) The UN/AU have set a cessation of hostilities as the
first item on the agenda for the Libya talks. While violence
often increases prior to peace talks as the parties position
themselves for negotiations, none of Darfur's rebel movements
have confirmed their attendance (Ref. D). Government attacks
on the sole signatory to the DPA will further dampen the
non-signatories' enthusiasm for participation in a process
whose objectives have yet to be defined by the negotiators.
The principle goal of Darfur's African tribes is achieving
security, a goal that the rebel groups also espouse in the
face of Government and Arab attacks. Without any indication
that the talks will offer security--as well as power and
wealth-sharing provisions that will be implemented--there
will be no incentive for the rebel groups to participate.
That the AU (or AMIS) would have encouraged the SAF and its
Arab militia allies to have "helped them" in fighting the
"rebels" (although SLM-Minawi are DPA signatories) is
particularly regretable - if true - because it strikes at the

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heart of AMIS's credibility. End comment.
FERNANDEZ