NEW--AND GROWING--CALLS FOR INDEPENDENT DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 001477 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2012 TAGS: PGOV PREL UN AU US SU SUBJECT: NEW--AND GROWING--CALLS FOR INDEPENDENT DARFUR Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- STIRRINGS OF DARFUR INDEPENDENCE -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Calls for an independent Darfur--infrequent in the past--have now taken a more prominent place in the region's political discourse. In a recent television interview, Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) leader Khalil Ibrahim warned that the failure of negotiations with the Sudanese Government scheduled to start in late October would leave Darfur's rebels with no choice but to seek independence. "The next step is Darfur will ask not only for self-determination, but clearly will want separation," Ibrahim told the BBC on September 18. ¶2. (SBU) Ibrahim's admonition, however, comes two months after internally displaced (IDPs) in El Fasher, North Darfur, told visiting Special Envoy Natsios that they wanted independence from Khartoum. While not yet advocated by a broad swatch of rebel groups, secessionist rumblings have since increased as a result of fatigue in Darfur at what is perceived as a stagnating political situation--despite the UN/AU-led political process. -------------- Ethnic Politics -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Conversations with academics, civil society activists, and IDPs in El Fasher in recent weeks reveal that independence calls are at present limited to the Zaghawa tribe, particularly Ibrahim's Kobe branch, which makes up a tiny part of Darfur's population. The Kobe tend to dominate Zaghawa intellectual and merchant circles and have been both the driving force within JEM and the link to the National Islamic Front and Hassan Al Turabi. Other African tribes, such as the Fur, still maintain a focus on concluding agreements that will share power and wealth with Khartoum. Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) faction leader Abdulwahid al Nur, a Fur seen by many as an obstruction to the peace process because of his unreasonable demands, has not yet called for independence despite his virulent opposition to the National Congress Party (NCP). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) While calls for independence may in part be a cynical rebel negotiating tactic, it is a worrisome trend that could intensify should the UN/AU-sponsored talks in Libya not prove inclusive and conclusive, leading many Darfurians to believe that they have few options within a unified Sudan. Charge has frequently warned the NCP leadership in private meetings that the longer the Darfur crisis continues, the more possible it is that Darfur could spin out of anyone's control, leading to a Yugoslavia-type scenario of multiple wars and competing ethnic score settling. Ibrahim's call in particular is a dramatic shift in position; in contrast to the SLM factions, JEM has long advocated a national (and Islamist)--versus Darfur--agenda, including the overthrow of the regime in Khartoum. End comment. FERNANDEZ