DARFUR: COMMANDERS CONF INCHES FORWARD, THREAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000116 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL AU SU UN SUBJECT: DARFUR: COMMANDERS CONF INCHES FORWARD, THREAT RISES TO THE EAST REF: A. 06 KHARTOUM 02874 ¶B. 06 KHARTOUM 02894 ¶C. KHARTOUM 00085 Classified By: P/E Chief E. Whitaker, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) The conference of Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) non-signatory commanders in North Darfur is inching forward. In a meeting on January 25 with S/CRS Poloff, North Darfur Wali Yousef Kibir said that a Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) general from Khartoum met with local military commanders and police officials in El Fasher on January 24 and instructed them to allow the conference to proceed on the condition that no commanders from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) attend and that it have a definitive end date. Reports from El Fasher indicate that the African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) now plans to begin transporting rebel commanders to the conference site on January 27. The AU in Khartoum, however, is unaware of the outcome of the SAF general's visit as of January 25. In addition, SAF troops and Arab militias have massed in the areas of Kutum and Mellit since January 23 -- on either side of the proposed location of the conference. ¶2. (C) A separate group of non-signatory leaders in Chad may be holding a rival event around the same time to coalesce into a unified faction under the leadership of JEM. Former G-19 commander Adam Bakhit, who commands the strongest military force of any of the non-signatory factions, remains in Chad, but has not indicated whether he will participate in either conference. Rumors persist that former Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) Humanitarian Affairs Coordinator Suleiman Jamoos, who remains at an UNMIS field hospital in South Kordofan, is attempting to influence the commanders in North Darfur to ally with the faction in Chad (Ref A and B). In a January 24 meeting with Poloff, Egyptian Deputy Chief of Mission Osama Shaltout (protect) said that the UNMIS forces guarding the hospital, who are primarily Egyptian, are concerned that Jamoos may have himself "smuggled out" in order to return to Darfur. ¶3. (C) Comment: Though the potential exists for the conference of non-signatory commanders to move forward in North Darfur, which commanders it includes -- and thus whether it advances the political process or leads to further splintering of the rebel movements -- remains an open question. On January 21, Post issued a statement supporting the AU and UN initiative to organize the commanders conference within the framework of the DPA and calling on the Sudanese government to provide the necessary security guarantees (Ref C). The USG should be prepared to issue a similar statement at a higher level should the conference not proceed in the coming days, either due to AMIS dithering or further Sudanese delay tactics. We should also consider issuing a public condemnation if the JEM attempt to unite rebel factions in Chad is successful, as the movement advocates regime change in Sudan. End comment. HUME