SPLA DEPLOYS NEW TACTICS IN REDEPLOYMENT QUAGMIRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001141 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2012 TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL MARR MOPS SU UN SUBJECT: SPLA DEPLOYS NEW TACTICS IN REDEPLOYMENT QUAGMIRE REF: A. KHARTOUM 00978 ¶B. KHARTOUM 00855 Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The SPLM and NCP are renegotiating a redeployment deadline of 9 November 2007 for southern-deployed Sudanese Armed Forces. In contrast, the SPLA has commenced redeployment of SPLA forces north of the 1956 line in advance of standing CPA deadlines, despite significant hardship, in order to focus attention of the NCP's intransigent stance on CPA implementation. The continued presence of Northern military forces in southern oil field areas remains contentious. Juba has rejected an invitation by Khartoum to match its force size in Upper Nile state as a &creative solution8 in absence of functional Joint Integrated Units. See action request in paragraph 7. End summary. -------------- REDEPLOYMENT UPDATE -------------- ¶2. (C) UN Deputy Resident Humanitarian Coordinator for Southern Sudan David Gressly and UNMIS/Juba Political Affairs Chief Ambassador Pascual Ngoga told POLOFF July 19 the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) had agreed upon November 9 as a revised SAF redeployment deadline. Khartoum missed the CPA-mandated July 9 redeployment deadline ) another setback for the CPA's beleaguered Security Arrangements. Gressly speculated that this renegotiated date could allow SPLA forces to &lawfully8 remain north of the 1956 border in the transitional areas (Blue Nile state, Southern Kordofan state, and the Abyei region). He opined that while politically palatable to Juba and Khartoum, continued joint SAF and SPLA presence in Abyei only served to increase tensions among under-informed residents of the disputed region. (Comment: Equally unhelpful to local-level tensions, the full-scale media battle on the issue in every one of Sudan's English and Arabic newspapers. End comment.) ¶3. (C) The missed July 9 redeployment deadline, initially believed by some international observers to be an "acceptable delay" within the context of the CPA's overall fitful implementation, has not been downplayed by the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS). First Vice President Salva Kiir, in his opening address at the SPLM Diaspora Chapters Conference on July 16, referred to the peace process in southern Sudan as &a road to drive that is not as smooth as one assumed8 and, in specific reference to the redeployment issue, &likely to become a long, stormy voyage.8 The UN has officially verified the SAF redeployment by July 9 to have been only 66.5%. Ambassador Ngoga noted SAF and SPLA are in agreement with the figure. -------------- SAF ATTEMPT TO HORSE TRADE -------------- ¶4. (C) UNMIS believes SAF maintains 3,600 troops in Unity State, and has noted GOSS concerns that the SAF has an &increased, strong presence8 in Upper Nile state. SAF has responded that the consolidation of forces in the oil-rich region is &necessary for the protection of the oil fields8 ) a claim which holds little credibility with the SPLM. According to Ngoga, the SAF has &invited8 the SPLA to reposition an equal number of SPLA forces into the oil field areas as a compromise solution pending the completion of SAF redeployment from the South. To date, the SPLA has rejected this offer. (Note: The CPA holds that oil-field areas are patrolled and protected by Joint Integrated Units. Joint Integrated Units in the Upper Nile region of southern Sudan remain non-functional, per Ref B. End note.) -------------- SPLA BEGINS SOUTHWARD REDEPLOYMENT EARLY -------------- ¶5. (C) SPLA Major General Bior Ajang told ConGen staff July 20 that the SPLA commenced redeployment from Blue Nile State and the Nuba Mountains. Ajang personally initiated redeployment of 4,000 troops from the former-SPLA controlled southern half of Blue Nile state (below Kormuk town) to Bufa. An estimated 5,930 redeployed SPLA troops were arriving in Jao, and 3,534 troops were being pulled out of the Nuba Mountains. Three hundred troops have already arrived in Duar, a swampy, elevated region in southern Sudan's Unity State largely inaccessible to vehicles. Redeployment has KHARTOUM 00001141 002 OF 002 occurred overland by foot, with soldiers portaging food and medical supplies. (Note: The CPA mandates that the SPLA is to undertake redeployment south of the 1956 line &as soon as Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) are formed and deployed under international monitoring and assistance.8 JIUs were to be formed by April 2005 and deployed by October 2005. Neither the dates or events in question have been wholly met. JIUs remain neither joint nor integrated. End note.) ¶6. (C) Although frank about the sizable challenge faced by the SPLA in managing the redeployment of tens of thousands of soldiers, newly appointed GOSS Minister for SPLA Affairs Dominic Dim Deng was enthusiastic about the initiative. &This is a better tactic,8 he told ConGen staff, &why complain about Khartoum's failures when instead we can demonstrate the South is CPA compliant despite the challenges?8 ¶7. (C) ACTION REQUEST: The SPLA has previously requested USG Security Sector Transformation assistance to be dedicated to the construction of a division headquarters in Duar. Shelter and water remain critical ) and unmet needs ) for redeploying SPLA forces. The Minister of SPLA Affairs has requested USG assistance with temporary shelter and bore-hole development in Duar. Embassy Khartoum requests Department's consideration of this request. FERNANDEZ