CENSUS DELAY LIKELY - POLITICS AND MONEY CAUSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 001137 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2012 TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PHUM KDEM EAID SU SUBJECT: CENSUS DELAY LIKELY - POLITICS AND MONEY CAUSE Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Census Technical Working Group is planning for the delay of the nation,s first nationwide census (and Comprehensive Peace Agreement milestone) by at least one month. The cause: continued delay in the release of long-promised funding by Khartoum to census programmers in both North and South. Political disagreements over census-form content have resurfaced, and confusion over the purpose of the pilot census have heightened political tensions within the Government of National Unity over the census itself -) and obscured the pilot census' primary successes. Experts estimate that if the totality of census funding is not released by September, the national census cannot be held as intended in advance of the 2009 elections. End summary. ¶2. (C) Consulate General Juba (ConGen) staff met with a USG-funded census expert July 17 in Juba to discuss the status of preparations for Sudan's inaugural nationwide census. Mapping of enumeration areas in both northern and southern Sudan remains incomplete ) hobbled by non-payment of funds tied to overall operating and training costs. Enumeration areas must be identified by summer's end in order for the census to be held by January 2008 as agreed to by President Bashir and First Vice President Salva Kiir. The Census Technical Working Group (CTWG) is planning against a late-February start at the earliest ) reflective of the CTWG's decreasing confidence in Khartoum's willingness to release funds in a timely matter. Two proposals exist for a revised census start date of either February 19 or sometime early March. (Comment: The latter brings the census precariously close to the South's rainy season, opening the door for allegations of illegitimate results, should either party choose to argue areas were inaccessible. End comment.) ¶3. (C) Superficial understanding of the purpose of the pilot census and disputes over questions on religion and ethnicity have further imperiled timely census rollout. The census has joined Abyei and oil on the list of the NCP/SPLM Executive Committee talks, most contentious issues. The NCP refuses to allow religion to be a question on in the final census, and has adopted a similar stance on ethnicity and tribal affiliation. The SPLM is pushing compromise language on the latter focused on "area of origin." Disagreements over the census at this late stage in the planning process has damaged the tenor of the Executive Committee talks and heightened political rhetoric. The SPLM in particular has been highly critical of the pilot census. At a Special Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) July 4, Malik Agar derided the pilot census as a "disaster," a charge the NCP rejected. (Note: The pilot census is supposed to identify flaws in advance of the final census ) making any failures (to include use of forms with questions not precisely in use during the final census) a success. Embassy staff will work with the Southern Sudan Center for the Census and Statistical Evaluation to promote a broader understanding of such issues within the SPLM. End note.) ¶4. (C) Khartoum is estimated to owe between $38 to $44 million in census funding for the Census Bureau and the SSCCSE. Its last payout of $3 million was delivered the week of June 18. Khartoum's diplomatic corps, via the AEC and through multilateral demarches, successfully pressured the Sudanese government to release the necessary pilot census funding at the 11th hour. Special Envoy Natsios cited census funding delays as an area of concern during his July 13 press conference in Khartoum. Post will continue to push Khartoum toward a bulk-release of its remaining funding. (Note: The World Bank is also exploring options whereby the donor community could direct emergency funding to support timely census rollout. End note.) ¶5. (C) Confusion also continues over the linkage between the 2009 elections and the census. Some GOSS officials maintain that the two event are interlinked, and planning must occur concurrently -- others argue they must occur sequentially. This lack of agreement and understanding within the Southern leadership in part reflects the absence of any public education campaign on the census. ConGen staff and USAID partners will continue to engage with key stakeholders to bridge the knowledge gaps in order to move forward with this critical precursor to national elections. FERNANDEZ