MINAWI PROPOSES U.S.-NCP DIALOGUE, DISCUSSES

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001097

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E NATSIOS, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND SHORTLEY
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL SU UN AU
SUBJECT: MINAWI PROPOSES U.S.-NCP DIALOGUE, DISCUSSES
DARFUR STATE POLITICS

REF: KHARTOUM 00832

Classified By: CDA A. Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (S/NF) Reporting on recent conversations with two senior
National Congress Party (NCP) figures, Senior Assistant to
the President and Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) leader
Minni Minawi has renewed a previous proposal to facilitate a
regular dialogue between the CDA and the NCP on the Darfur
conflict. In a July 11 meeting with Poloff, he also offered
insights into political developments in the Darfur states,
including the replacement of the South Darfur governor and
the shift of the West Darfur governor's allegiance away from
the NCP. He proffered mild criticism of the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement's (SPLM) lack of effective outreach to
other political elements in Sudan, including the SLM, and
questioned the SPLM's efforts to work with Darfur civil
society groups as part of the UN/AU political process.
Minawi proposed a meeting of Darfur stakeholders in the near
future to address security, humanitarian, and political
issues at the beginning of the tenure of the new UN/AU
special representative and force commander. End summary.

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Renewed Proposal for U.S.-NCP Dialogue
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2. (S/NF) According to Senior Assistant to the President and
SLM leader Minni Minawi, two influential NCP figures have
suggested more direct dialogue with CDA Fernandez to defuse
the Darfur conflict and ease U.S.-Sudan bilateral relations.
Speaking with Poloff on July 11, Minawi reported that in
separate conversations with Director General of the National
Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) Salah Ghosh and
Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail they had suggested
that they, Minawi, and the CDA begin regular conversations on
core issues important to both governments. It is unclear
whether the initiative for this dialogue came from Minawi or
from the NCP officials.


3. (S/NF) Minawi said that the first step to the discussion
should be a "single plan" for the dialogue. He intimated
that Ghosh had raised the idea without consultation with
other members of the NCP. Minawi deemed Ghosh the "strongest
guy" in the Government at present. He had built "his own
structure" that operated outside the influence of other NCP
officials. "Bashir and Vice President Ali Osman Taha both
fear him," said Minawi. "If he makes a decision, they
follow." He recounted a remark during a recent Council of
Ministers meeting that none of the "real decision-makers in
the Government are in this room," a specific reference to
Ghosh. "There are others (i.e. influential officials),but
he's the number one guy," Minawi added. When pressed by
Poloff, Minawi confirmed "Bashir would accept" any agreement
Ghosh made with the U.S. (Note: Per reftel, Minawi has made
similar comments to Embassy officials in the recent past
while offering to facilitate dialogue between the USG and the
NCP. End note.)

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Darfur State Politics
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4. (C) Minawi welcomed the recent appointment of Ali Mahmoud
to replace Al Hajj Attal Manan as governor of South Darfur
State. He characterized Mahmoud as "more realistic" and
practical in his approach to politics than either Manan or
North Darfur State Governor Yousef Kibir. "As a Darfurian,
he won't divide people," said Minawi, noting that Mahmoud's
Taisha tribe has not been associated with the Arab militias
which have perpetrated violence against the African tribes of
Darfur. (Note: Minawi reported that Ghosh had recently
suggested that Manan could replace the late Maghzoub
Al-Khalifa as the Darfur czar for the NCP, which Minawi
rejected. In a separate discussion with Minawi, Bashir
claimed he would handle the Darfur portfolio personally,
although Manan's name keeps coming up among regime sources.
End note.)


5. (C) West Darfur State Governor Abdulgassem Imam had had a
change of heart in recent months, according to Minawi. Imam
had distanced himself from the NCP and now voiced support for

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the UN/AU hybrid peace-keeping force and disarmament of the
Janjaweed. He opposed any return of internally displaced
persons (IDPs) from the camps until stability increased and
development projects could begin. Minawi further reported
that Imam had fired the ineffective NCP minister of finance
in West Darfur. He had also refused to accompany hard-line
Presidential Advisor Nafie Alie Nafie on a trip to
Kulbus--and told other NCP ministers from West Darfur that
"if they go, there was no reason" to come back to El Geneina.
"I'm talking to him daily," said Minawi, "and drawing him
away from the NCP."

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Mild Criticism of SPLM
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6. (C) Minawi mildly criticized the SPLM for a lack of
effective outreach to other political elements in Sudan,
including the SLM. Minawi's brother had been appointed the
official SLM liaison with the SPLM several months ago but had
not yet been able to meet a senior SPLM official. Minawi
confident Ali Trayo said that the SPLM feared angering rival
SLM leader Abdulwahid Al-Nur, a traditional ally of the SPLM,
if it worked too closely with the SLM/Minawi. Minawi stated,
however, that the SPLM was reticent to coordinate too closely
with the SLM because of a potential backlash from the NCP.


7. (C) Regarding the SPLM's initiative on Darfur, Minawi
questioned the proposed civil society component in the SPLM's
planned conference. "Why civil society? Civil society is not
opposed to the government," he commented. Minawi asserted
that security was the principle problem in Darfur. All
political initiatives should focus on five to six key rebel
political leaders and the field commanders because "only they
can chance the security situation" by signing a peace
agreement. "The DDDC (Darfur Darfur Dialogue and
Consultation) in the DPA is for civil society," explained
Minawi. He had raised these concerns with Government of
Southern Sudan Minister of Presidential Affairs Luka Biong
Deng, who had welcomed the SLM's advice on the "effective
people on the ground." Biong had also said that First Vice
President Salva Kiir would travel to Darfur in July to lay
the groundwork for the SPLM conference. (Note: In a brief
exchange with Poloff on July 12, Trayo said that Kiir would
travel to Darfur after his return from China and would meet
Minawi in El Fasher. End note).

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Proposed SLM conference
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8. (C) In recent meetings with UN/AU Joint Special
Representative Rudolphe Adada and Force Commander Martin
Luther Agwai, Minawi proposed a conference in Darfur of DPA
"stakeholders," including the SLM (political leadership and
field commanders),the NCP, humanitarian organizations, and
the international guarantors of the agreement. The aim would
be to discuss impediments to the political process and could
culminate in a communique or action plan for increasing
security, empowering the SLM politically, and facilitating
humanitarian operations. According to Minawi, both Adada and
Agwai were receptive to the proposal. Given that contentious
issues would be discussed, Minawi suggested that a neutral
party, such as the UN, should serve as a moderator for the
conference. He hoped that the conference could be held in
the near future and would help to establish a good rapport
between the SLM, Adada, and Agwai at the beginning of their
tenure.

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Comment
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9. (C) Minawi's offer to mediate between senior NCP officials
and the U.S. is a hardy perennial of Sudanese politics.
Sudanese officials often misunderstand that the problem in
U.S.-Sudan relations is policies not personalities. End
comment.
FERNANDEZ