NEPAL: FORMER PM ENCOURAGES INDIANS TO SEND CLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000907 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PTER IN NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: FORMER PM ENCOURAGES INDIANS TO SEND CLEAR MESSAGE Classified By: CDA Robert Hugins. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On May 4, former Prime Minister and President of the Rastriya Janashakti Party (National People's Power Party) (RJP) Surya Bahadur Thapa expressed concern to the Charge that the Maoists would increase their efforts to destabilize the country in the coming months. During recent consultations with senior Indian officials, Thapa said that the Government of India (GOI) should increase efforts to promote multi-party democracy in NEPAL during this critical period. Recent Maoist statements against the monarchy signaled an attempt to shake things up during the final stage of the peace process. Thapa believed Prime Minister Koirala and members of the Interim Parliament would need to quell these attempts by publicly speaking out against Maoist efforts to undermine the peace process. Concern about Maoist Intentions -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 4, former Prime Minister and President of the RJP Surya Bahadur Thapa told the Charge that the Maoists would likely launch a final effort to destabilize the country in the coming months. Statements by Maoist Chairman Pushpa Dahal (aka Prachanda) to delegitimize the monarchy indicated that the Maoists intended to attempt to consolidate power during the final stage of the peace process. Thapa asserted that the Maoists might reinforce their message with street demonstrations if the Interim Parliament failed to abolish the monarchy as they were demanding. Further acquiescence from the Interim Parliament at this stage might give the Maoists the final opening to gain a monopoly on state power, Thapa added. India Must Weigh In -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Thapa was frustrated by his consultations in late April with senior Indian officials in New Delhi. Among others, Thapa said he met with Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, National Security Advisor Mayankote Kelath Narayanan, and two executives from the GOI's Research and Analysis wing. Thapa had asked the GOI to explain its recent push for Maoist entry into the Interim Government. While some GOI officials had conceded that this move might have been a bit hasty, most opined that the Indian push had been justified, and that the Constituent Assembly election needed to be held as soon as possible because the Maoists could not win. Thapa had disagreed, noting that Maoist intimidation in the countryside would make a free and fair election at this stage impossible. Thapa said he urged the GOI to identify a clear objective in Nepal: to support the Interim Parliament and the Prime Minister, and publicly criticize Maoist efforts to destabilize the peace process. He had reminded the GOI that they had a large stake in the political outcome in NEPAL and that a Maoist takeover would destabilize the whole region. Thapa was not optimistic, however, that the GOI's approach would change soon enough. Political Parties Need Backbone -------------- ¶4. (C) Thapa expressed the view that a Maoist takeover could be curtailed if PM Koirala and the political parties spoke out strongly against the Maoists in the coming weeks. Thapa said the parties needed to send a message that Maoist efforts to destabilize the peace process would not be tolerated. The next generation of party leaders might be capable of this sort of candor. The parties needed to reach out to them and encourage their involvement. Thapa also voiced the opinion that if the Maoists took to the streets again, the NEPAL Army would step in. Comment -------------- KATHMANDU 00000907 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Thapa's prescription for the next six months -- until the expected Constituent Assembly election in November -- is that the political parties must stand up to Maoist efforts to dominate Nepal's politics. While Thapa's overall message was worrisome, he was clear that a strong message from PM Koirala could put the Maoists back in their place. We will continue to encourage our Indian counterparts to promote a unified front in favor of genuine multi-party democracy and an Interim Parliament willing to stand up to Maoist threats. HUGINS