MPRF EXPECTS TO DOMINATE THE VOTE IN THE TERAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000884

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PTER NP
SUBJECT: MPRF EXPECTS TO DOMINATE THE VOTE IN THE TERAI

REF: KATHMANDU 773

Classified By: CDA Robert Hugins. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) Awadesh Kumar Singh, a Nepali lawyer and
second-in-command of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum
(MPRF),told Emboff May 1 that the MPRF had recently
registered as a political party and had been gaining strength
in the Terai (along Nepal's southern border with India),
especially in the west. The MPRF had given separate letters
to the Prime Minister and the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN)
requesting the UN supervise roundtable discussions between
the Government of Nepal (GON) and different marginalized
groups, especially the Madhesis. The MPRF had begun informal
discussions with other groups in the east, including both
factions of the Maoist breakaway group, the Janatantrik Terai
Mukti Morcha (People's Terai Liberation Front). The leader
of the MPRF, Upendra Yadav, was in New Delhi for two days to
inform Indian politicians and leaders about the Front's
actions and plans. The MPRF planned to begin a voter
education campaign in the Terai to build a strong base and to
bring more Madhesis into the political mainstream. Singh
stressed that the MPRF did not plan to engage in general
strikes or violence as a means to gain political power.

MPRF Gaining Strength in the Terai
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2. (C) Awadesh Kumar Singh, a Nepali lawyer and
second-in-command of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum
(MPRF),told Emboff May 1 that the MPRF had recently
registered as a political party and had been gaining strength
in the Terai (along Nepal's southern border with India),
especially in the west. The party's leaders had traveled
extensively in the Terai, all the way to the western border
with India, and had recruited Madhesis (residents originally
from India) from every town to join their party. They were
recruiting especially heavily as well in the Tharu (an ethnic
group originally from the Terai) community. Singh claimed
that the MPRF would dominate the Terai in a free and fair
election. Other parties, such as the Prime Minister's Nepali
Congress, which used to think of the Terai as their
"stronghold," would be unpleasantly surprised if an election
were held, Singh added.

MPRF Wants UNMIN Intervention for Talks
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3. (C) Singh stated that the MPRF had presented separate
letters to the Prime Minister and to the UNMIN office on
April 29 requesting the UN to oversee talks between the GON
and the Madhesis and other marginalized communities.
Pressure from the U.S. had made the Front reconsider its
original demand for direct MPRF-GON talks. The Front now
realized that talks needed to be more inclusive in order to
help solve the problems of all marginalized communities. The
MPRF had not received a response yet from either office
regarding the request. Singh stressed that the Front would
only trust the GON enough to enter into talks if the UN was
involved as a neutral observer.

Informal Discussions Have Begun
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4. (C) The MPRF had already begun informal discussions with
other groups in the Terai to lay the groundwork for talks
with the GON. In several instances, the MPRF had even sat
down for talks with both factions of the violent Maoist
breakaway group, the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM).
Although Singh stated that talks were going slowly, he was
encouraged by the fact that the various groups had even
agreed to sit down. He hoped that, in the future, the MPRF
could play a role in bringing the JTMM into the mainstream.

Yadav in New Delhi to Spread the Word
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5. (C) Singh told Emboff that the leader of the MPRF, Upendra
Yadav, was in New Delhi for two days to consult with Indian
politicians and leaders about the Front's activities and
plans. Many in India suspected that the MPRF wanted a
separate state for the Madhesis, and Yadav was in New Delhi
to set them straight. The MPRF wanted inclusion of the
Madhesis in Nepal's political mainstream.

Voter Education Campaign in the Offing
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6. (C) Singh said that the MPRF planned to begin a voter
registration campaign soon in the Terai to educate the
Madhesis about their rights and responsibilities in the
still-to-be-scheduled Constituent Assembly election. Only
through education could the Madhesi people learn how to
participate in a real multi-party democracy.

No More Violence or Strikes
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7. (C) Emboff stressed to Singh that, although the U.S.
supported the demands of the Madhesis and other marginalized
groups for inclusion in Nepal's political system, the U.S.
would never support the use of violence or intimidation for
political ends. Singh assured Emboff that the MPRF did not
plan to use violence as a political tool. He said the
incident in Gaur on March 21 had gotten out of the control of
all the groups involved and would not happen again (reftel).
The MPRF did not even plan to call a general strike again
because such things "only hurt the poor people we are trying
to help." Emboff repeated to Singh that the U.S. expected
nothing less of a legitimate political party than to shun
violence.

Comment
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8. (C) The Madhesi People's Rights Forum seems ready to enter
the political fray in Nepal as the country gears up for a
Constituent Assembly election, probably in the fall.
Assuming the Election Commission approves its registration as
a political party, the MPRF has the potential to unseat a
number of sitting members of the Interim Parliament from the
Terai. The nation's existing Madhesi-based party, the Nepal
Sadbhavana (Good Will) Party will at least have a challenge.
Although it is positive to hear the leaders of MPRF claiming
to shun violence, Emboff heard an allegation from another
source recently that the Front had begun training its cadre
in Gorakhpur, India to fight against the Maoists in the
Terai. Time will tell if the MPRF has really given up
violence or is simply telling us what we want to hear.
HUGINS