MPRF EXPECTS TO DOMINATE THE VOTE IN THE TERAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000884 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PTER NP SUBJECT: MPRF EXPECTS TO DOMINATE THE VOTE IN THE TERAI REF: KATHMANDU 773 Classified By: CDA Robert Hugins. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Awadesh Kumar Singh, a Nepali lawyer and second-in-command of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF),told Emboff May 1 that the MPRF had recently registered as a political party and had been gaining strength in the Terai (along Nepal's southern border with India), especially in the west. The MPRF had given separate letters to the Prime Minister and the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) requesting the UN supervise roundtable discussions between the Government of Nepal (GON) and different marginalized groups, especially the Madhesis. The MPRF had begun informal discussions with other groups in the east, including both factions of the Maoist breakaway group, the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (People's Terai Liberation Front). The leader of the MPRF, Upendra Yadav, was in New Delhi for two days to inform Indian politicians and leaders about the Front's actions and plans. The MPRF planned to begin a voter education campaign in the Terai to build a strong base and to bring more Madhesis into the political mainstream. Singh stressed that the MPRF did not plan to engage in general strikes or violence as a means to gain political power. MPRF Gaining Strength in the Terai -------------- ¶2. (C) Awadesh Kumar Singh, a Nepali lawyer and second-in-command of the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (MPRF),told Emboff May 1 that the MPRF had recently registered as a political party and had been gaining strength in the Terai (along Nepal's southern border with India), especially in the west. The party's leaders had traveled extensively in the Terai, all the way to the western border with India, and had recruited Madhesis (residents originally from India) from every town to join their party. They were recruiting especially heavily as well in the Tharu (an ethnic group originally from the Terai) community. Singh claimed that the MPRF would dominate the Terai in a free and fair election. Other parties, such as the Prime Minister's Nepali Congress, which used to think of the Terai as their "stronghold," would be unpleasantly surprised if an election were held, Singh added. MPRF Wants UNMIN Intervention for Talks -------------- ¶3. (C) Singh stated that the MPRF had presented separate letters to the Prime Minister and to the UNMIN office on April 29 requesting the UN to oversee talks between the GON and the Madhesis and other marginalized communities. Pressure from the U.S. had made the Front reconsider its original demand for direct MPRF-GON talks. The Front now realized that talks needed to be more inclusive in order to help solve the problems of all marginalized communities. The MPRF had not received a response yet from either office regarding the request. Singh stressed that the Front would only trust the GON enough to enter into talks if the UN was involved as a neutral observer. Informal Discussions Have Begun -------------- ¶4. (C) The MPRF had already begun informal discussions with other groups in the Terai to lay the groundwork for talks with the GON. In several instances, the MPRF had even sat down for talks with both factions of the violent Maoist breakaway group, the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM). Although Singh stated that talks were going slowly, he was encouraged by the fact that the various groups had even agreed to sit down. He hoped that, in the future, the MPRF could play a role in bringing the JTMM into the mainstream. Yadav in New Delhi to Spread the Word -------------- KATHMANDU 00000884 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Singh told Emboff that the leader of the MPRF, Upendra Yadav, was in New Delhi for two days to consult with Indian politicians and leaders about the Front's activities and plans. Many in India suspected that the MPRF wanted a separate state for the Madhesis, and Yadav was in New Delhi to set them straight. The MPRF wanted inclusion of the Madhesis in Nepal's political mainstream. Voter Education Campaign in the Offing -------------- ¶6. (C) Singh said that the MPRF planned to begin a voter registration campaign soon in the Terai to educate the Madhesis about their rights and responsibilities in the still-to-be-scheduled Constituent Assembly election. Only through education could the Madhesi people learn how to participate in a real multi-party democracy. No More Violence or Strikes -------------- ¶7. (C) Emboff stressed to Singh that, although the U.S. supported the demands of the Madhesis and other marginalized groups for inclusion in Nepal's political system, the U.S. would never support the use of violence or intimidation for political ends. Singh assured Emboff that the MPRF did not plan to use violence as a political tool. He said the incident in Gaur on March 21 had gotten out of the control of all the groups involved and would not happen again (reftel). The MPRF did not even plan to call a general strike again because such things "only hurt the poor people we are trying to help." Emboff repeated to Singh that the U.S. expected nothing less of a legitimate political party than to shun violence. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The Madhesi People's Rights Forum seems ready to enter the political fray in Nepal as the country gears up for a Constituent Assembly election, probably in the fall. Assuming the Election Commission approves its registration as a political party, the MPRF has the potential to unseat a number of sitting members of the Interim Parliament from the Terai. The nation's existing Madhesi-based party, the Nepal Sadbhavana (Good Will) Party will at least have a challenge. Although it is positive to hear the leaders of MPRF claiming to shun violence, Emboff heard an allegation from another source recently that the Front had begun training its cadre in Gorakhpur, India to fight against the Maoists in the Terai. Time will tell if the MPRF has really given up violence or is simply telling us what we want to hear. HUGINS