NEPAL ELECTION: TO BE OR NOT TO BE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000771 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP SUBJECT: NEPAL ELECTION: TO BE OR NOT TO BE? REF: KATHMANDU 669 Classified By: A/DCM Robert Hugins. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Election Commission Cannot Hold Election On Time -------------- --- ¶1. (C) On April 13, the Election Commission publicized a letter it had sent to the Interim Cabinet one day earlier stating that it could not hold a Constituent Assembly election by June 20, the date the Seven-Party Alliance and the Maoists had agreed upon when they formed the Interim Government on April 1 (reftel). Immediate reactions to the news varied. President of the Nepali Congress-Democratic (NC-D) Sher Bahadur Deuba welcomed the postponement of the polls, stating that security was necessary before a free and fair election could be held. General Secretary of the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) Madhav Kumar Nepal placed the blame for the delay in the election squarely on the Prime Minister's shoulders. The Maoists claimed that the only way to maintain the unity of the eight-party Interim Government was to declare Nepal a republic through the Interim Parliament immediately, and stated that they would not accept a new date for the election until that demand was met. Meeting of the Eight Parties Inconclusive -------------- ¶2. (C) The leaders of the eight parties met on April 15 to try to iron out a solution, but the meeting ended inconclusively. Deuba told the Ambassador April 16 that the parties would likely meet again during the week of April 23 to try to work out next steps (septel). The Maoists: Three Paths to Victory -------------- ¶3. (C) The Maoists have publicly declared a new, three-prong strategy to move toward declaring Nepal a republic (and, presumably, their goal of complete state power). Senior Maoist leader C.P. Gajurel said April 16 that the Maoists planed to push for a republic through the Interim Government, the Interim Parliament, and, if those options failed, through peaceful protests in the streets, perhaps after leaving the Interim Government. According to press reports, Prachanda also told the Prime Minister on April 16 that if he wanted the unity of the eight parties to continue, the Interim Parliament needed to declare Nepal a republic immediately. Comment: Fighting for a Political Victory -------------- ¶4. (C) Since the Election Commission's announcement, the leaders of the various parties in the eight-party Interim Government -- other than the Prime Minister's Nepali Congress (NC) Party -- have been attempting to find a way to use the situation to their advantage. The CPN-UML immediately attacked the Prime Minister and the NC for the failure to hold the election as planned, and the smaller People's Front Nepal (PFN) Party Vice-President Lilamani Pokharel agreed, stating that the Prime Minister was "incompetent." The Maoists have taken advantage of the situation to push for a declaration of Nepal as a republic, a step that might allow them to start chipping away at the Nepal Army as well. While the Cabinet has yet to formally confirm the postponement, it has no choice but to do so; the new election date remains up in the air. MORIARTY