FORMER PM TO INDIA TO ASCERTAIN FATE OF MONARCHY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000740

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN NP
SUBJECT: FORMER PM TO INDIA TO ASCERTAIN FATE OF MONARCHY

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) On April 9, Royal confidant Prabhakar SJB Rana told
the Ambassador that Former Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa
would travel to New Delhi soon to confer with top Indian
political leaders about the fate of Nepal's monarchy and the
country's uncertain future. Rana requested that the
Ambassador lean on the Indians to tone down their rhetoric
regarding the necessity of a June 20 Constituent Assembly
election. Rana and the Ambassador agreed that, in the last
month, the Indian position on the situation in Nepal had been
inconsistent. When questioned by the Ambassador, Rana stated
the he had advised the King against making a Nepali New
Year's Day (April 14) address and had told him to consult
with the Prime Minister. The Ambassador noted that any
statement by the King would likely help the Maoists.

Thapa To Assess Indian Support For Monarchy
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2. (C) Royal confidant Prabhakar SJB Rana told the Ambassador
April 9 that Rastriya Janashakti Party Chief and former Prime
Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa would visit New Delhi soon.
Thapa would meet with Indian leaders from all the parties,
including Sonia Gandhi, to determine whether King Gyanendra
had any remaining support. Rana told the Ambassador that
Thapa would return with a full picture of the Indian
sentiment regarding King Gyanendra's future. Rana stated
that if Gyanendra had little support in India (and both Rana
and Thapa believed this was the case),Thapa intended to
gather together a group of former prime ministers to suggest
abdication to the King.

Thapa To Deliver Message Of Concern
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3. (C) Rana stated that Thapa also planned to send a message
to the Indians that the future of Nepal was at risk, as the
Maoists would continue to use any and all means available to
gain complete political control of the country. Rana noted
that Thapa believed the Interim Government could not survive
and that the Maoists were posed to take over. Rana and the
Ambassador agreed that it was apparent from their speeches
that the Maoists did not support a "bourgeois parliamentary
democracy;" rather their goal remained the establishment of a
Maoists-controlled state.

India Should Soften Stance
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4. (C) Rana requested that the Ambassador lean on the
Government of India to soften its insistence on a June 20
Constituent Assembly election. The Ambassador responded that
he would be meeting with Indian Ambassador Shiv Shankar
Mukherjee later on April 9 to discuss India's unexplained and
sudden change in position on Maoist entry into the Interim
Government. Rana commented that the central government in
New Delhi had apparently lost control over Indian policy in
the Terai to the state governments in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh
(two northern Indian provinces bordering Nepal) and that
India's sudden policy reversal might be explained by her
internal politics. He also noted that the Indian Foreign
Minister had stated that the Madhesi problem was Nepal's
problem, but had then offered India's support for the
Madhesis, reaffirming the groups' demands. Rana and the
Ambassador agreed that pushing for June 20 Constituent
Assembly election without addressing the Madhesi movement in
the Terai was a dangerous combination.

King Threatens New Year's Day Address
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5. (C) The Ambassador questioned Rana about rumors that the
King would deliver a New Year's Day message. (Note: The
Nepali New Year begins on April 14. End note.) Rana stated
that he had advised the King that such an address would be a
bad idea. He suggested that the King consult with the Prime

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Minister. The Ambassador noted that he could not imagine any
address by the King which would not help the Maoists. Rana
hoped that the Prime Minister would not allow the King to
deliver a New Year's address.

Comment
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6. (C) Although it seems unlikely that Thapa will find
support for the King anywhere in India, no one is willing to
bet on abdication. The King has been advised before to keep
a low profile and start planning an exit strategy. He has a
history of ignoring such advice. We can only hope that he
does not attempt a provocative New Year's Day address on
April 14. The only beneficiaries would be the Maoists, who
would seize such an opportunity to press anew for abolition
of the monarchy.
MORIARTY