PARTIES AND MAOISTS JOCKEYING FOR MINISTERIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000638 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM NP SUBJECT: PARTIES AND MAOISTS JOCKEYING FOR MINISTERIAL POSITIONS? Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty for reasons 1.4(b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Nepal's three major legitimate political parties and the Maoists have spent much of the past few days publicly squabbling over the division of ministries in a long-awaited interim government. The Interim Government's first decision will be to choose the date for Constituent Assembly elections: hold them in June or defer them until October or November? Meanwhile, Maoist abuses have not ended and Nepal's law-and-order problem and its "ethnic question" are far from resolved as evidenced by the recent killings in Gaur. Indeed, despite the public posturing by the parties, it remains unclear when an interim government will actually be formed. April: In With the Old, Out With the New -------------- ¶2. (C) Prime Minister G.P. Koirala, according to his foreign policy advisor, is insisting that his Nepali Congress party retain the Home, Defense and Finance portfolios in the Interim Government, while the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) and the Maoists are both insisting that they get one of the big three ministries. Media are clucking over the public squabbling accompanying this issue in recent days. Constituent Assembly Elections: Now or Never? -------------- ¶3. (C) The delay in forming the Interim Government has put at risk the proposed June date for Constituent Assembly elections. The two options under consideration are both problematic. As United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) chief Ian Martin told Chiefs of Mission March 22, elections held by mid-June would not be free and fair. Three months was simply not enough time to prepare. Prominent political leaders such as the Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Chitralekha Yadav (Nepali Congress - Democratic),a Madhesi, are starting to say publicly that the election should be deferred to October or November. She pointed out March 24 that the necessary electoral laws had yet to be adopted. Her party President, Sher Bahadur Deuba, went public with similar comments March 26, stressing that free and fair elections could not be held while Maoist intimidation continued. Nonetheless, according to one school of thought (and UML General Secretary M.K. Nepal has been its most visible proponent) elections must take place by June. Various arguments are advanced: we (the parties) promised the public, PM Koirala could die, the Maoists will rise, the King will conspire, the law and order situation could further deteriorate. Maoist insistence on a June date appears increasing tactical; we believe that, in light of their recent setbacks in the Terai, the Maoists would prefer a delay (or no election at all). Keeping the Maoists In Check -------------- ¶4. (C) There is no certainty that the Maoists will join the Interim Government soon. Koirala continues to insist they change their behavior and, indeed, he could take advantage of the ongoing talks on ministerial seats to replace his discredited Home Minister, Krishna Prasad Sitaula, with a strong law-and-order figure. Pressure is increasing on the Maoists from other quarters, too. After issuing a disappointingly uncritical assessment of the Maoist arms registration process a few weeks ago, UNMIN chief Martin has in recent days stressed that the UN intends vigorously to weed out the large number of under-age and recent Maoist recruits in the UN-monitored cantonments. He has also emphasized the need for law and order. Making Politics More Inclusive -------------- ¶5. (C) Sitaula's ouster in a cabinet reshuffle would have the additional advantage of fulfilling a pre-condition the Madhesi People's Rights Forum (currently under fire for the deaths of 29 Maoists in Gaur on March 21) has set for talks with the government. On a positive note, on March 25, the commission empowered to delineate constituencies for the upcoming election began its work. As of yet, however, the Speaker of the Interim Parliament has not organized the envisioned national roundtable on bringing ethnic minorities and other disadvantaged groups into the political mainstream, and the top political leaders reportedly stripped the latest electoral law tabled in Parliament of its language on inclusiveness. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) To paraphrase the memorable comments of Ambassador Malinowski, the Maoists and the Seven-Party Alliance appear to be arguing over who will occupy the master bedroom while the house burns down. That said, the continuing delays in formation of an interim government do not play into the hands of the Maoists, who as of yet do not appear to have decided on their way forward and are beginning to look disorganized and shaken. MORIARTY