NEPAL: INTERIM PARLIAMENTARY CHALLENGES ABOUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000061 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PTER NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: INTERIM PARLIAMENTARY CHALLENGES ABOUND REF: KATHMANDU 42 Classified By: CDA Nicholas J. Dean. Reasons 1.4 (b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) In a meeting on January 10, Subash Nemwang, Speaker of the House of Representatives, told Charge that he was optimistic about the peace process, but expected difficulties in the interim parliament. Nemwang told Charge about the logistics of the upcoming promulgation of the interim constitution and the investiture of the interim parliament on January 15 (reftel). Arjun Narsingh KC, Central Committee Member of the Nepali Congress, told Emboff on January 11 about a meeting between the Seven-Party Alliance (SPA) and the Maoists where the distribution of the extra 48 seats in the interim parliament was divvied up among the eight parties. He also said that the eight parties had agreed to keep Nemwang as Speaker in the interim parliament. Nemwang said it was unclear how long the Maoists would wait after joining the interim parliament before demanding entry into the interim government. Optimism and Uncertainty -------------- ¶2. (C) On January 10, Subash Nemwang, Speaker of the House of Representatives, told Charge that he was optimistic about the peace process and was pleased by the decision to promulgate the interim constitution and form the interim parliament on January 15. Nemwang said that there would be difficulties in the new parliament, but that the SPA members would be "ready for anything." Nemwang said that the government had to let the Maoists into the interim parliament, stating "I see no alternative to our new friends in parliament" for a peaceful outcome in the country. Maoists Will Learn Procedure -------------- ¶3. (C) Charge asked how the Maoists might behave in the interim parliament, since they had no previous experience with parliamentary procedure. Nemwang responded that some of the people in the Maoist ranks had experience in parliament, and those people would be able to help the others learn quickly. (Note: Krishna Bahadur Mahara, current Maoist spokesman who is expected to lead the Maoist delegation in the interim parliament, was previously a Member of Parliament from the United People's Front Nepal. End Note.) Nemwang believed that "within a few days" everyone in the new parliament would learn how to behave in a parliamentary system. Debate But No Amendment to Interim Constitution -------------- -- ¶4. (C) Nemwang said that he met with the Prime Minister on January 9 and told him that it was important that the current parliament follow the correct legal procedure for the interim constitution to have legitimacy. He said that the Cabinet would deliver the draft interim constitution to the Parliament on January 11, and debate would be held on January 13-15. During the debate, members of the current Parliament would be allowed to lodge formal dissents and propose amendments. Manohar Bhattarai, Special Secretary in the Parliamentary Secretariat, told Charge on January 9 that it was unlikely that any amendments would actually be put into the interim constitution due to the reaction it could spark from any of the eight parties, especially the Maoists. Bhattarai said that it was more likely that members would lodge formal dissents to parts of the interim constitution before it was passed in its submitted form. Out With the Old, In With the New -------------- ¶5. (C) Nemwang continued that, once debate ended on January KATHMANDU 00000061 002 OF 002 15, a vote would be taken on the adoption of the interim constitution. Immediately after taking this "historic decision," the current Parliament would be dissolved and the 330-member interim parliament would be invested with power that same day. The interim parliament would then take up, as its first point of business, the official promulgation of the interim constitution. Nemwang said the seats for the expanded parliament were already prepared in the chamber, and the transfer from the old Parliament to the interim parliament would only take a small amount of time. Distribution of Additional 48 Seats Decided -------------- ¶6. (C) Arjun Narsingh KC, Central Committee Member of the Nepali Congress Party, told Emboff January 11 that a joint SPA-Maoist meeting decided January 10 how to split up the 48 seats set aside for members of civil society. KC said that the Nepali Congress, Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist, and the Maoists would each nominate ten members. The Nepali Congress-Democratic would nominate six seats. The Nepal Sadbhavana Party-Anandi Devi, Nepal Peasants and Workers Party, United Left Front, and People's Front Nepal would nominate three members each. While it was originally envisioned that these members would come from civil society, KC said that now these seats could be filled with anyone the parties wished to nominate, effectively giving the parties extra seats in the interim parliament. Nemwang to Remain Speaker -------------- ¶7. (C) During the meeting with the Charge, Nemwang said he was not worried about his position in the interim parliament. KC told Emboff subsequently that the eight parties had agreed to let Nemwang remain as Speaker of the House in the interim parliament. KC also said that Chitra Lekha Yadav, Deputy Speaker of the House, would also maintain her position. Interim Government on the Way? -------------- ¶8. (C) Nemwang said it was unclear how long the Maoists would wait after entering the interim parliament to demand entry into the interim government. He said that previously there was an understanding that the Maoists would not be allowed into the government until after arms management was complete. However, Nemwang said that, since the Maoists would be in the Parliament from January 15, he did not "know how long they will wait before they are in the interim government." Nemwang stated that such demands might begin coming from the Maoists from the first day of the interim parliament, in which case the government would have to consider it. Nemwang worried, "When they are already in the parliament, it will be difficult to check them." Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) It appears the work is done to allow the promulgation of the interim constitution and the investiture of the interim parliament on January 15. Nemwang's tempered optimism seems to be shared by our other interlocutors as well. Most seem ready to move forward with the interim constitution and interim parliament as a way to keep the peace process moving forward. We share Nemwang's worry that once the Maoists are in the government, it will be even harder to check them, and more difficult for the Government of Nepal to hold the line against allowing them into the interim government until UN-conducted arms management is complete. We will continue to buck up the GON to hold the line on completing arms management before allowing the Maoists into government. DEAN