NEPAL: THE ROYAL QUESTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 000583

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KDEM NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: THE ROYAL QUESTION

REF: A. KATHMANDU 0025


B. KATHMANDU 0416

C. KATHMANDU 0512

Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty for reasons 1.4(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C/NF) Royal family confidant Prabhakar Rana told the
Ambassador March 19 that King Gyanendra had been discussing
abdication but had yet to make a decision. Meanwhile, mixed
messages from India had not clarified the King's thinking.
Rana also relayed that former Prime Minister Surya Bahadur
Thapa planned to go to New Delhi soon with a warning for the
Government of India (GOI) and Indian political leaders that
the Maoists would likely foment a significant political
crisis in the coming weeks.

King Considering Abdication
--------------


2. (C/NF) Royal family confidant Prabhakar Rana told the
Ambassador March 19 that he had been discussing abdication
with the King and had encouraged King Gyanendra to carefully
consider such a move. The King had not yet made a decision
but now recognized that his statement on the eve of Nepal's
Democracy Day in February had caused a public uproar. Prime
Minister G.P. Koirala's public remarks on March 12 that the
time was ripe for the King to abdicate were made without
consultation with the Palace. Rana believed that this lack
of consultation was a sign that the PM had abandoned
constitutional monarchy (Ref B). The Ambassador reflected
that, in making the remarks, the PM had prevented the Maoists
from labeling him a closet royalist and using him as an
excuse to take to the streets. Nonetheless, the King
remained a useful ideological foil for the Maoists. Rana
regretted that the Palace was not getting a clear signal from
India. He noted that, based on his discussion with many
Indian political leaders, most of them clearly supported the
King's abdication (and that of Crown Prince Paras) in favor
of his grandson Hridyendra. That said, some contacts of the
King had given Gyanendra the impression that Indian National
Congress Party Chairman Sonia Gandhi was not pushing for
abdication. Even if that were true, Prabhakar pointed out,
popular pressure would force Sonia Gandhi to abandon the
King, in the event of a future crisis.

Former PM Thapa Headed To India
--------------


3. (C) Rana told the Ambassador that Former Prime Minister
Surya Bahadur Thapa would be traveling to New Delhi soon to
tell the GOI that the Maoists would likely foment a serious
political crisis within weeks. According to Rana, Thapa
believed that the Maoists retained the option of violent
takeover and their patience was waning. (Ref C). Either the
Maoists would make a good faith effort to meet the
requirements for entry into an interim government (return
seized land, cease abductions and extortion, and stop public
displays of arms and uniforms),or they would sow confusion
to bring about the collapse of the present government. Since
the former seemed unlikely based on present Maoist behavior,
Thapa hoped to encourage India to use its diplomatic weight
more urgently and more effectively with the players in
Kathmandu. Thapa intended to seek an audience with the King
after his return from India.

Comment: April Is the Cruelest Month
--------------


4. (C/NF) Unless King Gyanendra and his son abdicate or the
country opts to discard the monarchy in favor of a republic
(the more likely outcome in Post's view),the Palace will
remain the focus of Maoist efforts to incite popular unrest
and confusion. The Maoists will continue to cite "royal
plots" to put pressure on the Prime Minister, who insists it
is for the Constituent Assembly alone to declare Nepal a
republic. As April, a warm month historically favored for
political agitation approaches, further missteps by the King
would be even more dangerous. Even if the King remains
silent behind the walls of Narayanhiti Palace, April's
approach could well signal confrontation between Nepal's
government and the Maoists.
MORIARTY