CARTER CENTER'S ELECTION OBSERVERS DEPLOYED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000574

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV NP
SUBJECT: CARTER CENTER'S ELECTION OBSERVERS DEPLOYED


Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
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1. (C) The Carter Center's Advisor on Nepal, Peter Burleigh,
told the Ambassador March 13 that 12 of 13 planned Carter
Center long-term election observers had been deployed across
Nepal's five development regions. Burleigh and Carter Center
Kathmandu representatives described the potent Madhesi anger
they had witnessed in Biratnagar, in Nepal's southern Terai.
They said voter registration and citizenship certification
efforts had run into roadblocks. The Ambassador and Burleigh
discussed the implications of a potential election delay from
June until fall 2007. They agreed on the desirability of an
eight-party announcement if elections were delayed to avoid
finger-pointing, the challenge of keeping Maoist People's
Liberation Army (PLA) combatants in cantonment for an
extended period, and the fragility of the Prime Minister's
health. Burleigh noted that the Carter Center planned to
meet with Maoist leadership; the Ambassador asked him to
convey grave U.S. concern over Maoist leader Prachanda's
allegations of a royalist plot to kill U.S. officials.

Status on Long-Term Observers
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2. (C) Peter Burleigh, the Carter Center's Advisor on Nepal,
and representatives from the Carter Center's Kathmandu office
told the Ambassador March 13 that 12 of 13 of the Carter
Center's long-term observers were in place across Nepal's
five regions. The observers had been deployed in pairs, with
one pair per region and two individuals roaming across Nepal.
Burleigh said they were currently recruiting the final
expatriate observer, who would also have roaming
responsibility. Burleigh reported that UN security personnel
were assisting in arranging security for the Carter Center's
LTOs at their regional posts and that the UN had helped the
Carter Center in moving their vehicles to regional sites.
The Ambassador stressed the important role the Carter Center
should play in ensuring an environment conducive for credible
elections.

Situation Tense in Biratnagar
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3. (C) Burleigh said that, during his team's recent visit to
Biratnagar, the city had been "closed down" by political
agitation and they had been unable to travel to neighboring
districts because of road blocks. In meetings with Madhesi
advocacy groups, Burleigh said Madhesis were stridently
anti-Maoist and seemed viscerally angry at the Government of
Nepal (GON). Madhesi activists also complained that the
international community was operating with a double standard;
giving lip service to the need for inclusiveness, while
continuing to hire only "pahadis" (or Nepalese from the
hills) for national staff positions. There was not a single
Madhesi in international offices in Biratnagar, the Madhesi
activists complained. Burleigh also noted that in meetings
with political party leadership in Biratnagar, none of the
parties sent Madhesi representatives. The Ambassador
referred to his past trips to Terai districts, during which
Madhesi groups expressed similarly vehement sentiments
regarding exclusion from Nepal's politics. Burleigh said the
Madhesis were looking for status recognition from the GON and
that even a symbolic meeting between marginalized group
leadership and the Prime Minister would be a well-recieved
gesture. The Ambassador reported that Speaker of the House
Subash Nemwang, who seemed well-liked and non-partisan,
planned to convene a roundtable with all of the marginalized
groups to develop a comprehensive way forward.

Voter Registration and Citizenship Certification "Unclear"
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4. (C) Burleigh said that the relationship between the voter
registration and citizenship certification processes was very
unclear. Burleigh was, however, impressed with the mechanics
of the ongoing voter registration effort in Biratnagar. He
said that the District Election Commissioner's office was

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transcribing handwritten voter lists into a computer-based
list that would be sent to Kathmandu. The computer-based
system, Burleigh said, allowed the Election Commission to
identify duplicates and other irregularities. Burleigh said
he had heard many stories in Biratnagar of Indians obtaining
Nepalese citizenship illegally and said the dilemma of how to
address internally displaced persons was also impeding
efficient and effective distribution of citizenship
certificates.

Possibility of June Election Wanes
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5. (C) Burleigh asked the Ambassador for his prediction on
an election date. The Ambassador said that, with legislation
pending and logistics hurdles, he did not believe credible
elections could be pulled off by June, but added he would not
say so publicly. The Ambassador reported that the Indians
were keen to keep the peace process rolling and therefore
stick to a June date, but they also recognized the growing
obstacles to a June election. The Ambassador said the Seven
Party Alliance also seemed eager to keep the June date,
fearing that a later election, overseen by an interim
government that included Maoists, may weaken their position.
The Ambassador clarified to Burleigh that an interim
government was required to officially announce an election
date. The Ambassador said he thought Maoist enthusiasm for
June elections was waning, and that the Maoists looked
increasingly interested in keeping their options open;
ominously, the Maoists were increasingly referring in public
to possible mass protests, similar to the April 2006 People's
Movement, to ensure a democratic republic. The Ambassador
said, however, that the Maoists would have a tough time
mobilizing public opinion unless the King made another speech
or inflammatory move that could rally public sentiment. The
Ambassador agreed with Burleigh that 84-year-old Prime
Minister Koirala's health was a continuing concern despite
the PM's recovery from recent illnesses.

Consequences of an Election Delay
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6. (C) When asked by Burleigh what he believed the
consequences would be of an election delay, the Ambassador
said this would go relatively smoothly if the eight parties
jointly announced and attributed an election delay to
technical barriers. Without such a joint statement, the
Ambassador said, finger-pointing between the parties would be
inevitable with detrimental ramifications for the peace
process. Burleigh and the Ambassador also discussed the
challenge of managing the PLA cantonment sites and keeping
combatants in the camps for an extended period of time. The
Ambassador emphasized the importance of the potential
tripartite UN-GON-Maoist arrangement on camp management to
address deteriorating conditions in the camps. Burleigh said
that, if a delay occurred, the Carter Center would have to
seek additional funds to keep its LTOs in the field. The
Ambassador reiterated the importance of the Carter Center's
mandate and said he hoped that in the event of a delay,
observers could remain in Nepal.

Pokharel the Right Man for the Job
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7. (C) The Ambassador and Burleigh agreed that Chief Election
Commissioner Boj Raj Pokharel was making the best of a tough
job. Burleigh said Pokharel had been wise in issuing a
public statement warning the GON regarding political
decisions and legislation needed to ensure a sound election
process. The Ambassador agreed that Pokharel was viewed as a
strong, non-partisan advocate for a credible election.

Carter Center Message to Maoists on Alleged Anti-U.S. Plot
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8. (C) Burleigh mentioned that the Carter Center planned to
meet with Maoist leadership. The Ambassador asked Burleigh
to convey grave U.S. concern over Maoist leader Prachanda's
allegations of a royalist plot to kill U.S. officials. The
Ambassador emphasized the irresponsibility and danger of

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Prachanda's statement as it gave armed Maoists on the street
the license to kill Americans and blame it on the royalists.
The Ambassador said he had asked the government to demand
that the Maoists provide evidence to back such a claim and to
push Prachanda to publicly tell his cadre to exercise
restraint.

Comment
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9. (C) The Carter Center's deployment of long-term observers
is a positive step toward credible elections. We will
continue contact with the Carter Center as it begins to
receive reporting from the regions. As the only
international observers on the ground thus far, they will
play a vital role in promoting a transparent and secure
atmosphere in the lead-up to elections and will potentially
play a role in coordinating international monitoring efforts.

MORIARTY