NEPAL: INDIAN AMBASSADOR WORRIED ABOUT MAOISTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000557 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ASEC IN NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: INDIAN AMBASSADOR WORRIED ABOUT MAOISTS Classified By: Ambassador James F. Moriarty for reasons 1.4(b/d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Indian Ambassador to Nepal Shiv Mukherjee agreed with the Ambassador March 12 that Maoist leader Prachanda should provide evidence of his claim of a royalist plot to assassinate official Americans and that, if he failed to provide evidence, the Government of Nepal (GON) should issue a public statement to that effect. Mukherjee had told Prime Minister Koirala recently that the Maoists needed to demonstrate improved conduct before joining an interim government. The Indian envoy had also relayed to Home Minister Sitaula the need to improve management at the cantonment sites, enforce law and order, and crack down on Maoist violations. If the Maoists entered an interim government without improving their behavior, India might cut off interaction with the GON. Prachanda's Claim of Royalist Plot Must Be Exposed -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In a meeting March 12 with Indian Ambassador to Nepal Shiv Mukherjee, the Ambassador conveyed his concern over Maoist leader Prachanda's recent claim that the Royal Palace was plotting to assassinate U.S. officials in Nepal. Prachanda's public statement gave carte blanche to Maoist cadre to attack U.S. Embassy personnel. The GON needed to demand evidence from Prachanda and, if the Maoist leader failed to produce it, the GON should issue a public statement to that effect. The Ambassador also wanted to be assured that Prachanda privately had instructed Maoist cadre not to target U.S. officials. Mukherjee agreed and said he would raise this issue in his next meeting with Home Minister Sitaula. India Supports Prime Minister's Tough Stance -------------- ¶3. (C) Mukherjee recounted that in his recent meeting with Prime Minister Koirala he had told the PM that the Maoists should demonstrate progress in three areas before joining an interim government. The Maoists needed to return property they had seized across the country, cease extortion, and stop their public displays of arms and military uniforms. The PM seemed to have dug in his heels with the Maoists, he said. Mukherjee was considering speaking publicly about the need for improved Maoist behavior. The Ambassador encouraged him to do so. India Agrees On Need to Impose Law and Order -------------- ¶4. (C) Mukherjee agreed with the Ambassador that the GON had to impose law and order in the country as soon as possible. Mukherjee had emphasized this issue with Home Minister Sitaula recently, particularly the need to empower the police to arrest those openly carrying weapons. He had also urged Sitaula to improve management of the cantonment sites and supported the UN proposal for a tripartite management committee for cantonments with representatives from the GON, Maoists, and UN. Mukherjee had also pushed Sitaula to crackdown on Maoist violations of their peace commitments as well as to address Madhesi demands more adequately. The government needed to allow the Madhesi rights groups to save face so they could stop their ongoing protests in the Terai, he added. The Ambassador noted the PM's decision to seek parliamentary leadership on discussions with the Madhesis, Janajatis and other ethnic and marginalized groups. Speaker of the Parliament Subash Nemwang, the Ambassador said, intended to hold a roundtable meeting with these groups to begin a constructive dialogue. Mukherjee supported this idea. India Increasingly Nervous About Maoist Behavior -------------- --- KATHMANDU 00000557 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Mukherjee admitted that the Government of India (GOI) was increasingly nervous about Maoist actions. If the Maoists pushed the GON too far, the GOI would support the GON in taking all necessary measures, including deploying the Nepal Army if necessary. Mukherjee intended to make this clear to the Maoist leadership. He confided that, if the Maoists entered an interim government without significant improvements in their behavior, the GOI might cut off interactions with the government. The Ambassador responded that India would have to be careful if it did so; rather than just cutting off communications, India needed to find levers to pressure the Maoists. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The Indian Ambassador continues to stand with us on holding the Maoists accountable for their actions -- although thus far in private only. Like us, the Indians support the GON decision to bar the Maoists from an interim government until their behavior improves. Mukherjee's suggestion that India might cut off interactions with an interim government otherwise indicates just how worried the Indians are about Maoist intentions. Seen from Kathmandu, U.S. encouragement to New Delhi for Mukherjee to go public and demand Maoist accountability would substantially increase the pressure on the Maoists and enhance the prospects for success of Nepal's fragile transformation to democracy. MORIARTY